本文關(guān)鍵詞：順周期國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)——影響因素、負(fù)面效應(yīng)及反向調(diào)節(jié)　出處：《山西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)》2010年03期 　論文類型：期刊論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 經(jīng)濟(jì)周期 國(guó)際資本流動(dòng) VEC模型 反向調(diào)節(jié)

【摘要】：本文利用15個(gè)有代表性國(guó)家的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù),對(duì)國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行了實(shí)證研究,發(fā)現(xiàn)國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)存在順周期、逆周期及無(wú)周期三種變動(dòng)趨勢(shì)。1982至2008年間,我國(guó)國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)存在著較為顯著的順周期變動(dòng),而GDP增長(zhǎng)率、人民幣實(shí)際匯率指數(shù)、美國(guó)聯(lián)邦基準(zhǔn)利率和國(guó)內(nèi)股票價(jià)格指數(shù)是引發(fā)這一現(xiàn)象的主要影響因素。在后金融危機(jī)時(shí)期,這種順周期資本流動(dòng)能引起人民幣出現(xiàn)新一輪內(nèi)外價(jià)值偏離,積累和放大國(guó)內(nèi)資產(chǎn)泡沫,延緩經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整,加劇國(guó)際收支失衡與儲(chǔ)備貨幣貶值,增強(qiáng)國(guó)內(nèi)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)結(jié)構(gòu)性通貨膨脹的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。因此,宏觀上需要進(jìn)行必要的逆周期反向調(diào)節(jié)。
[Abstract]:This paper uses 15 related data representative of the country, on the relationship between international capital flow and economic growth between the empirical research found that international capital flows are procyclical, inverse cycle and cycle without three changes of.1982 to 2008 years, China's international capital flows in a more significant cyclical changes. While the GDP growth rate, the RMB real exchange rate index, the federal benchmark interest rate and the stock price index is the main influencing factors of causing this phenomenon. In the period after the financial crisis, which caused a new round of RMB with internal and external value deviate from the cycle of capital flow, accumulation and amplification of domestic asset bubble, delaying the adjustment of economic structure, increasing the imbalance of international payments and the reserve currency devaluation, enhance the risk of domestic macroeconomic structural inflation. Therefore, the macro regulate the necessary inverse cycle reverse.

【作者單位】： 西安交通大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)與金融學(xué)院;
【基金】：西安交通大學(xué)“985”工程二期建設(shè)項(xiàng)目資助,項(xiàng)目編號(hào)07200701
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6;F224
【正文快照】： 一、引言自14世紀(jì)出現(xiàn)跨國(guó)資本流動(dòng)以來(lái),國(guó)際資本經(jīng)歷了規(guī)模由小到大、流動(dòng)速度由慢到快、監(jiān)管由嚴(yán)到寬的發(fā)展過(guò)程。國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)猶如一把“雙刃劍”,在促進(jìn)各國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的同時(shí),又以各種形式破壞經(jīng)濟(jì)與金融秩序,在一定范圍內(nèi)間接促成或直接引發(fā)國(guó)際金融危機(jī),甚至加劇危機(jī)在各

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本文編號(hào)：1392920