本文關(guān)鍵詞：人民幣匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)我國(guó)茶葉出口貿(mào)易的影響研究　出處：《西北農(nóng)林科技大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：中國(guó)是茶葉生產(chǎn)以及出口大國(guó)，茶產(chǎn)業(yè)歷年來(lái)一直是中國(guó)的傳統(tǒng)產(chǎn)業(yè)也是我國(guó)出口創(chuàng)匯的重要農(nóng)產(chǎn)品之一。但是，隨著科技進(jìn)步和其他茶葉生產(chǎn)國(guó)的崛起，中國(guó)茶葉在國(guó)際市場(chǎng)上的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)壓力日趨增大，內(nèi)憂外患使得中國(guó)茶葉出口面臨著巨大的挑戰(zhàn)，“綠色壁壘”、茶葉的質(zhì)量安全等成為阻礙我國(guó)茶葉出口的主要問(wèn)題之一。同時(shí)在金融危機(jī)余波的影響下，各國(guó)為加速經(jīng)濟(jì)的蓬發(fā)，將矛頭紛紛指向了中國(guó)，從各方面對(duì)人民幣匯率升值施加壓力，導(dǎo)致我國(guó)茶葉出口價(jià)格被動(dòng)大幅提高。這就需要研究改善中國(guó)目前茶葉出口貿(mào)易的現(xiàn)狀、尋求問(wèn)題產(chǎn)生的根源，最終提出改善中國(guó)茶葉出口相應(yīng)的對(duì)策，為中國(guó)茶葉出口的長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)發(fā)展尋求突破口，以實(shí)現(xiàn)更大的收益。本文旨在在了解人民幣匯率變動(dòng)以及我國(guó)茶葉出口貿(mào)易發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀的基礎(chǔ)上，探尋兩者之間的影響程度，并以1994-2011年度數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ)，對(duì)我國(guó)茶葉出口貿(mào)易額與人民幣匯率變動(dòng)的相關(guān)性做描述性分析和回歸分析，并對(duì)于兩者的影響程度進(jìn)行量化同時(shí)證實(shí)是否在茶葉出口貿(mào)易中確實(shí)存在滯后效應(yīng)。最后針對(duì)現(xiàn)存問(wèn)題提出相應(yīng)的對(duì)策建議。 本文首先對(duì)研究文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行了簡(jiǎn)要的回顧，闡述了人民幣匯率大幅升值以及我國(guó)茶葉出口貿(mào)易的特點(diǎn)、現(xiàn)狀以及存在的問(wèn)題，繼而闡述了“馬歇爾-勒納條件”以及“J-曲線效應(yīng)”相關(guān)貿(mào)易理論，并在收集了1994年至2011年茶葉出口貿(mào)易相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)的基礎(chǔ)上利用現(xiàn)代計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)方法進(jìn)行檢測(cè)，驗(yàn)證在我國(guó)茶葉對(duì)外貿(mào)易中是否確實(shí)存在“馬歇爾-勒納條件”“J-曲線效應(yīng)”的現(xiàn)象。最后針對(duì)我國(guó)茶葉出口貿(mào)易中存在的問(wèn)題結(jié)合實(shí)證分析的結(jié)果，提出了相應(yīng)的政策建議，首先應(yīng)在加強(qiáng)我國(guó)茶葉質(zhì)量、制定更為有效的茶葉質(zhì)量檢驗(yàn)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的同時(shí)增強(qiáng)我國(guó)茶葉的產(chǎn)業(yè)化發(fā)展；其次應(yīng)加大科技方面的投入，尋求創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)，優(yōu)化茶產(chǎn)品的貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)；再者應(yīng)充分認(rèn)識(shí)茶葉貿(mào)易中J-曲線變化趨勢(shì)，開(kāi)發(fā)茶葉出口潛力；最后利用我國(guó)的悠久歷史文化優(yōu)勢(shì)，，創(chuàng)造具有國(guó)際知名度的自有茶品牌。最終促使我國(guó)的茶葉出口貿(mào)易由現(xiàn)在的價(jià)格競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)向技術(shù)品牌競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)的轉(zhuǎn)變。 通過(guò)實(shí)證與理論分析我們可以得出我國(guó)茶產(chǎn)業(yè)屬于一般加工貿(mào)易產(chǎn)業(yè)，其主要競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)不同于其他國(guó)家以技術(shù)、品牌競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)為主的加工貿(mào)易產(chǎn)業(yè)，而是大部分僅僅依靠?jī)r(jià)格競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)，因此我國(guó)茶葉出口貿(mào)易會(huì)受到人民幣匯率變動(dòng)的影響且呈正相關(guān)關(guān)系。并且在假設(shè)成立的基礎(chǔ)上，考慮到了匯率變動(dòng)的影響要經(jīng)過(guò)一段反應(yīng)時(shí)間即時(shí)滯的效應(yīng)，證實(shí)了J-曲線效應(yīng)的存在性即匯率的變動(dòng)對(duì)茶葉出口貿(mào)易的影響會(huì)有一年的滯后期。并經(jīng)實(shí)證分析得出我國(guó)茶葉的生產(chǎn)總量對(duì)出口貿(mào)易的影響程度不大。
[Abstract]:China is a large country in tea production and export. Tea industry has been one of the traditional industries and one of the important agricultural products in China. However, with the development of science and technology and the rise of other tea producing countries. The competition pressure of Chinese tea in the international market is increasing day by day, the internal and external troubles make the Chinese tea export face the huge challenge, "green barrier". The quality and safety of tea has become one of the main problems hindering China's tea export. At the same time, under the influence of the aftermath of the financial crisis, in order to speed up the economic development, many countries have pointed the spearhead at China. Exerting pressure on RMB exchange rate appreciation from various aspects leads to the passive and substantial increase of Chinese tea export price, which needs to study and improve the current situation of China's tea export trade and seek the root cause of the problem. Finally, the paper puts forward the corresponding countermeasures to improve China's tea export, so as to seek a breakthrough for the long-term development of China's tea export. In order to achieve greater income. This paper aims to understand the RMB exchange rate changes and the current situation of China's tea export trade on the basis of exploring the impact between the two. Based on the data of 1994-2011, this paper makes a descriptive analysis and regression analysis on the correlation between China's tea export trade and the change of RMB exchange rate. The influence degree of both is quantified and the lag effect is proved to exist in tea export trade. Finally, the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward in view of the existing problems. This paper reviews the research literature briefly, expounds the characteristics, current situation and existing problems of the RMB exchange rate appreciation and China's tea export trade. Then it expounds the "Marshall-Lerner condition" and the "J- curve effect" related trade theory. And on the basis of collecting the data of tea export trade from 1994 to 2011, the modern econometric method is used to detect the data. To verify the existence of "Marshall-Lerner condition" and "J-curve effect" in China's tea foreign trade. Finally, the problems in China's tea export trade are analyzed in combination with the results of empirical analysis. The corresponding policy suggestions are put forward. Firstly, we should strengthen the quality of tea in our country and establish more effective inspection standards of tea quality, at the same time, we should strengthen the development of tea industrialization in our country. Secondly, we should increase investment in science and technology, seek innovation points and optimize the trade structure of tea products; Furthermore, we should fully understand the changing trend of J- curve in tea trade and develop the potential of tea export. Finally, we make use of our country's long history and culture advantage to create our own tea brand which has international fame. Finally, it makes our tea export trade change from the current price competitive advantage to the technological brand competitive advantage. Through empirical and theoretical analysis, we can conclude that our tea industry belongs to the general processing trade industry, and its main competitive advantage is different from other countries' processing trade industry, which is dominated by technology and brand competition advantage. But most of them only depend on the price competitive advantage, so the tea export trade of our country will be affected by the RMB exchange rate change and have a positive correlation, and on the basis of the hypothesis. Considering the effect of exchange rate change, the effect of time lag is passed through a period of time. It is proved that the existence of J-curve effect is that the change of exchange rate will affect the tea export trade for one year, and the empirical analysis shows that the total production of tea in China has little influence on the export trade.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西北農(nóng)林科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F752.62;F832.6;F326.12;F224

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