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  本文關(guān)鍵詞：美國定量寬松貨幣政策的溢出效應(yīng)與中國對策分析　出處：《吉林大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 定量寬松貨幣政策 溢出效應(yīng) 中國對策

【摘要】：金融危機(jī)過后，為促進(jìn)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)投資及恢復(fù)民眾信心，美聯(lián)儲持續(xù)降低美國聯(lián)邦利率直至其接近于零，但并未達(dá)到刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)的預(yù)期效果，被視為美國經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)入了“流動性陷阱”。對此，美聯(lián)儲采取多輪定量寬松的貨幣政策，不斷為市場注入流動性。最早實(shí)施定量寬松貨幣政策的日本成為眾多學(xué)者研究的對象，通過對日本2001年至2006年的各項(xiàng)經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)和對日本經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響進(jìn)行分析，得出日本經(jīng)濟(jì)僅僅走出通貨緊縮，未使其實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)現(xiàn)突飛猛進(jìn)的發(fā)展。大多數(shù)學(xué)者對這項(xiàng)貨幣政策的推出持否定態(tài)度，美國作為世界經(jīng)濟(jì)大國及美元在國際貨幣體系中的核心地位，美國采取該政策被認(rèn)為是“以鄰為壑”的貨幣政策，即通過溢出效應(yīng)將美國在經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)中的損失轉(zhuǎn)嫁到他國，與此同時，居高不下的失業(yè)率及緩慢上升的GDP表明美國自身的經(jīng)濟(jì)尚未得到實(shí)質(zhì)性改善。 本文通過對定量寬松貨幣政策的涵義和理論背景分析，得出應(yīng)對危機(jī)唯一有效的辦法就是通過向市場直接注入流動性，故應(yīng)采取定量寬松貨幣政策，但只是作為理論依據(jù)。事實(shí)上美國不同于日本，美元作為國際貨幣體系的儲備貨幣，美元的寬松不僅對美國經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生影響，也會由于美國與各個國家間的經(jīng)濟(jì)往來而產(chǎn)生溢出效應(yīng)，那么分析美國定量寬松貨幣政策的溢出效應(yīng)是極其必要的。文章對的美國近十年經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)以及美聯(lián)儲資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表的結(jié)構(gòu)分析，判斷美國經(jīng)濟(jì)是否復(fù)蘇，并分析定量寬松貨幣政策的實(shí)施效果和全球范圍內(nèi)的積極效應(yīng)和負(fù)面影響。對美國定量寬松貨幣政策的溢出效應(yīng)進(jìn)行了較完整的研究和系統(tǒng)性分析。主要觀點(diǎn)是美國定量寬松貨幣政策已逐步令美國經(jīng)濟(jì)得到改善，但不會達(dá)到美國政府預(yù)期，并預(yù)測美國定量寬松貨幣政策的實(shí)施不會結(jié)束，將會出現(xiàn)第三輪、甚至第四輪定量寬松貨幣政策。而且，在美元大幅度貶值的過程中，各個國家相繼跟隨美國采取定量寬松的貨幣政策，也是美國面臨經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的另一大難題，也是造成未來全球通脹可能性的一大誘因。 此外，通過對其溢出原因的分析，預(yù)測和判斷各個國家為了應(yīng)對這項(xiàng)“以鄰為壑”的貨幣政策的對策。本文就中國貨幣當(dāng)局應(yīng)當(dāng)如何應(yīng)對美國定量寬松貨幣政策的負(fù)效應(yīng)提出建議，，即中國貨幣當(dāng)局應(yīng)在維持人民幣匯率穩(wěn)定的同時，實(shí)現(xiàn)金融市場自由化發(fā)展，加快人民幣匯率國際化是擺脫過度依賴美元的一項(xiàng)重大措施。同時，在對國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)方面，建議央行與政府政策相配合，大力發(fā)展農(nóng)村金融、養(yǎng)老金金融等，對中國軟環(huán)境方面提供信貸支持，也要加強(qiáng)對證券市場的流動性的監(jiān)管，避免國際游資從房地產(chǎn)轉(zhuǎn)投機(jī)到中國股市，使中國實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)能穩(wěn)健快速增長，虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì)相協(xié)調(diào)的健康發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:In the wake of the financial crisis, in order to boost investment in the real economy and restore public confidence, the Federal Reserve continued to reduce US federal interest rates until it was close to zero, but failed to achieve the desired effect of stimulating the economy. Seen as a "liquidity trap" for the US economy, the Fed has adopted multiple rounds of quantitative easing. Japan, which continuously injected liquidity into the market and first implemented quantitative easing monetary policy, has become the object of many scholars' research. Through the analysis of the economic indicators and the impact on the Japanese economy from 2001 to 2006, it is concluded that the Japanese economy is only out of deflation. Most scholars hold a negative attitude towards the introduction of this monetary policy, and the United States, as a world economic power and the core position of the US dollar in the international monetary system, has not made its real economy develop by leaps and bounds. The United States adopted this policy as a "beggar-thy-neighbour" monetary policy, whereby the losses of the United States in the economic crisis were passed on to other countries through spillover effects, at the same time. Stubbornly high unemployment and a slow rise in GDP suggest that the U.S. economy has yet to improve substantially. By analyzing the meaning and theoretical background of quantitative easing monetary policy, this paper concludes that the only effective way to deal with the crisis is to inject liquidity directly into the market, so quantitative easing monetary policy should be adopted. In fact, the United States is different from Japan, and the dollar is the reserve currency of the international monetary system, and the easing of the dollar not only has an impact on the American economy. There will also be spillover effects from the economic interaction between the United States and various countries. It is extremely necessary to analyze the spillover effects of quantitative easing monetary policy in the United States. The article analyzes the economic indicators of the United States in the past ten years and the structure of the Federal Reserve balance sheet to determine whether the US economy is recovering or not. The paper also analyzes the effect of quantitative easing monetary policy and the positive and negative effects in the world. The author makes a complete research and systematic analysis on the spillover effect of quantitative easing monetary policy in the United States. The main viewpoints are as follows:. The US monetary policy of quantitative easing has gradually improved the US economy. But it will not meet the expectations of the United States government and predict that the implementation of quantitative easing in the United States will not end, and that there will be a third, or even a fourth, round of quantitative easing. And. In the course of the sharp depreciation of the US dollar, various countries followed the US monetary policy of quantitative easing one after another, which is another big problem for the United States to recover its economy. It is also a big incentive for the possibility of global inflation in the future. In addition, the causes of spillover are analyzed. In order to deal with the "beggar-thy-neighbour" monetary policy, this paper puts forward some suggestions on how the Chinese monetary authorities should deal with the negative effects of the quantitative easing monetary policy of the United States. That is, while maintaining the stability of RMB exchange rate, the Chinese monetary authorities should liberalize the financial market and accelerate the internationalization of RMB exchange rate, which is an important measure to get rid of excessive reliance on US dollar. In terms of domestic economy, it is suggested that the central bank should coordinate with government policies, vigorously develop rural finance and pension finance, provide credit support to China's soft environment, and strengthen the supervision of the liquidity of the securities market. To avoid international hot money from real estate speculation to the Chinese stock market, so that China's real economy can steady and rapid growth, virtual economy coordinated healthy development.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F827.12;F124

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條

1 賈洪文;李曉輝;;美國量化寬松政策對中國的溢出效應(yīng)[J];湖南財(cái)政經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院學(xué)報(bào);2013年04期

本文編號：1356106