本文關(guān)鍵詞：人民幣匯率變動對中國經(jīng)濟增長的影響　出處：《南京財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 人民幣匯率 經(jīng)濟增長 進出口 外商直接投資

【摘要】：自改革開放以來,中國經(jīng)濟取得了快速的發(fā)展,2010年中國超越日本成為世界第二大經(jīng)濟體,2013年中國超過美國,成為世界第一大貨物貿(mào)易國。中國與世界的經(jīng)濟聯(lián)系更加密切,而匯率在連接中國經(jīng)濟和世界經(jīng)濟中起著紐帶的作用。自2005年人民幣匯率改革以來,人民幣對美元一直保持著持續(xù)小幅升值的狀態(tài),至2014年6月30日,人民幣對美元匯率累計升值達(dá)到34.52%,并且人民幣對美元單日波動幅度有擴大的趨勢。隨著人民幣升值,研究匯率的經(jīng)濟效應(yīng)更為迫切。人民幣匯率變動會對中國經(jīng)濟造成怎樣的影響?以及人民幣匯率變動會對中國的進出口貿(mào)易和外商直接投資有何影響?本文首先對經(jīng)濟增長和匯率的概念進行了界定,接著從理論方面研究了人民幣實際匯率對進中國出口貿(mào)易和外商直接投資的傳導(dǎo)機制,并且分別分析了中國宏觀經(jīng)濟現(xiàn)狀：包括國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值、進出口貿(mào)易和外商直接投資,并從圖形上直觀分析了人民幣實際有效匯率波動率對中國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值、進出口貿(mào)易和外商直接投資的影響。然后,本文運用1994年第1季度到2014年第2季度數(shù)據(jù)分別實證研究了匯率與國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值、進出口貿(mào)易總額、外商直接投資的關(guān)系。在研究人民幣實際有效匯率變動與國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值關(guān)系時,運用協(xié)整檢驗、格蘭杰因果檢驗等方法,研究發(fā)現(xiàn)：人民幣實際有效匯率升值1%,中國經(jīng)濟增長率就會下降0.059%,人民幣實際有效匯率是中國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的格蘭杰原因。再分別研究匯率影響經(jīng)濟增長的影響機制：進出口貿(mào)易和外商直接投資。建立了出口貿(mào)易總值、人民幣實際有效匯率和中國主要貿(mào)易伙伴國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值三個變量之間的長期協(xié)整關(guān)系,結(jié)果表明：人民幣實際有效升值1%,出口總額就會減少1.3587%。建立的進口貿(mào)易總額、人民幣實際有效匯率和中國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值三個變量之間的長期協(xié)整關(guān)系,結(jié)果表明：人民幣實際有效升值1%,進口總額就會減少1.5264%。人民幣實際有效匯率升值對中國進出口貿(mào)易均產(chǎn)生反方向的影響,通過脈沖響應(yīng)分析可以看出,匯率的波動會對進口和出口產(chǎn)生長期不利的影響。通過匯率對外商直接投資的研究表明：人民幣實際有效匯率和外商直接投資長期不存在穩(wěn)定均衡的關(guān)系,短期來看,人民幣實際有效匯率對外商直接投資產(chǎn)生一定的影響。最后提出了一些如避免短期內(nèi)人民幣匯率的劇烈波動的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has made rapid progress. In 2010, China surpassed Japan to become the world's second largest economy. In 2013, China surpassed the US and became the world's largest cargo trading country. China's economic ties with the world are closer, and the exchange rate plays a link in connecting China's economy and the world economy. Since the reform of RMB exchange rate in 2005, the RMB has maintained a slight appreciation against the US dollar. By June 30, 2014, the total appreciation of RMB against the US dollar has reached 34.52%, and the fluctuation of RMB to us dollar has expanded trend. With the appreciation of the RMB, it is more urgent to study the economic effect of the exchange rate. The change of RMB exchange rate will influence on China economy? And the RMB exchange rate changes on Chinese import and export trade and foreign direct investment impact? Firstly, the definition of economic growth and the exchange rate is defined, then from the theoretical research on the conduction mechanism of RMB real exchange rate on export trade and foreign direct Chinese the investment, and analyzes the current situation of China macro economy: including GDP, import and export trade and foreign direct investment, and from the graph directly analyzed the RMB real effective exchange rate volatility impact on Chinese GDP, import and export trade and foreign direct investment. Then, based on the data from the first quarter of 1994 to the second quarter of 2014, this paper empirically studies the relationship between exchange rate and gross domestic product, total volume of import and export, and foreign direct investment. In the study of relationship between RMB real effective exchange rate and GDP, using cointegration test and Grainger causality test and other methods, the study found that: the real effective exchange rate of RMB appreciation of 1%, Chinese economic growth rate will drop 0.059%, the RMB real effective exchange rate is the reason Grainger Chinese gdp. The influence mechanism of exchange rate on economic growth is studied separately: import and export trade and foreign direct investment. The long-term cointegration relationship between the total value of export trade, the effective exchange rate of RMB and the three variables of China's main trading partners GDP is established. The results show that the effective appreciation of RMB is 1%, and the total export volume will be reduced by 1.3587%. The long term cointegration relationship between the total import volume, the effective exchange rate of RMB and the three variables of China's gross domestic product has been established. The results show that the effective appreciation of RMB is 1% and the total import volume will be reduced by 1.5264%. The appreciation of the real effective exchange rate of RMB has an opposite direction to China's import and export trade. By impulse response analysis, we can see that the fluctuation of exchange rate will have a long-term adverse effect on import and export. The study of foreign direct investment through exchange rate shows that there is no stable equilibrium relationship between RMB real effective exchange rate and foreign direct investment in the long run. In the short term, the real effective exchange rate of RMB has a certain impact on foreign direct investment. Finally, some policy suggestions, such as avoiding the violent fluctuations of the RMB exchange rate in the short term, are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F832.6;F124

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本文編號：1342592