【摘要】：需求信息刪失(Demand Information is Censored, DIC)是指當(dāng)可供銷售的庫存量小于市場(chǎng)需求的時(shí)候,真實(shí)的市場(chǎng)需求就不能被完全獲取,從而導(dǎo)致客戶的需求無法完全滿足,在一些文章中也稱之為需求信息部分觀測(cè)或不完整觀測(cè)。需求信息刪失是當(dāng)前企業(yè)管理經(jīng)營中普遍存在的現(xiàn)象,也是現(xiàn)代經(jīng)營環(huán)境的一個(gè)重要特征；多次訂購是解決信息刪失的有效手段,它可以盡可能的應(yīng)用觀測(cè)到的市場(chǎng)信息,提高需求預(yù)測(cè)的準(zhǔn)確性,進(jìn)而提升企業(yè)在不斷變化的市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)情形中的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力,如果在做庫存控制決策的時(shí)候忽略需求的DIC特點(diǎn),就會(huì)產(chǎn)生對(duì)需求一個(gè)錯(cuò)誤的理解,如果再以這個(gè)錯(cuò)誤的認(rèn)識(shí)來更新需求,則會(huì)形成惡性循環(huán),導(dǎo)致更大的損失,但是考慮信息刪失的時(shí)候又會(huì)導(dǎo)致模型求解的過程過于復(fù)雜,所以對(duì)信息刪失的影響研究還處于起步階段。 本文的研究就是基于DIC的背景下,討論如何通過合理的訂貨策略,來提高供需雙方的收益值,首先我們介紹了信息刪失在現(xiàn)代經(jīng)營過程中重要性,如果不考慮信息的DIC特征,可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致惡性循環(huán)；緊接著我們介紹了本文研究過程所使用到的相關(guān)理論方法,其實(shí)最重要的就是不完全信息更新理論,在文章中有詳細(xì)介紹：在文章的核心部分我們首先將整個(gè)銷售周期劃分為兩個(gè)子階段,對(duì)設(shè)定的問題背景進(jìn)行描述,然后分別研究制造商領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下的Stackelberg博弈,以及集中決策模型,我們能夠發(fā)現(xiàn)集中決策雖然可以提高供應(yīng)鏈的整體收益,但是損害了供需雙方一方的利益,所以接下來我們引入了一個(gè)轉(zhuǎn)移支付契約來協(xié)調(diào)供應(yīng)鏈。在所有的模型建立之后我們給出了模型的算法以及數(shù)值算例,通過實(shí)驗(yàn)仿真來證明我們研究的正確性；在文章的第四章,我們將兩個(gè)階段的特殊情形推廣到了多階段情形,利用動(dòng)態(tài)規(guī)劃的方法來解決此類問題,并給出數(shù)值算例。
[Abstract]:When the amount of inventory available for sale is smaller than the market demand, the true market demand cannot be fully obtained, which leads to the customer's demand being unable to be fully satisfied. In some articles, it is also called partial observation or incomplete observation of demand information. The deletion of demand information is a common phenomenon in the current enterprise management, and it is also an important feature of the modern business environment. Multiple ordering is an effective way to solve the problem of information deletion. It can use the observed market information as much as possible, improve the accuracy of demand prediction, and then enhance the competitiveness of enterprises in the changing market competition. If the DIC characteristics of requirements are ignored when making inventory control decisions, a wrong understanding of demand will occur. If the demand is updated with this wrong understanding, a vicious circle will be formed, resulting in greater losses. However, the process of solving the model is too complicated when considering the information deletion, so the research on the effect of information deletion is still in its infancy. In this paper, based on the background of DIC, we discuss how to improve the profit value of both supply and demand through reasonable ordering strategy. Firstly, we introduce the importance of information deletion in the modern business process, if we do not consider the DIC characteristics of information. May lead to a vicious circle; Then we introduce the relevant theoretical methods used in the research process, in fact, the most important is incomplete information update theory. In this paper, we introduce in detail: in the core part of the article, we divide the whole sales cycle into two sub-stages, describe the set background of the problem, and then study the Stackelberg game under the leadership of the manufacturer and the centralized decision model, respectively. We can find that centralized decision can improve the overall income of the supply chain, but it damages the interests of both supply and demand parties, so we introduce a transfer payment contract to coordinate the supply chain. After all the models are built, we give the algorithm of the model and the numerical examples, and verify the correctness of our research by the experimental simulation. In the fourth chapter, we extend the special case of two stages to the multi-stage case, use the dynamic programming method to solve this kind of problem, and give a numerical example.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F274;TP309

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