本文選題：策略型消費者 + 預(yù)售策略�。� 參考：《天津大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：面對市場需求不確定性帶來的較高產(chǎn)品剩余與缺貨風(fēng)險,經(jīng)銷商通常會考慮運用預(yù)售策略在一定程度上提升預(yù)測準(zhǔn)確度。然而對于在預(yù)售期對產(chǎn)品估值不確定的策略型消費者而言,預(yù)購行為存在著實際估值低于預(yù)期或消費心理與消費環(huán)境發(fā)生變化的風(fēng)險。回購策略的實施可以降低這種預(yù)測風(fēng)險,從而鼓勵消費者進行預(yù)購。然而回購策略對經(jīng)銷商收益的影響卻是未知的。目前對回購策略的研究多集中于供應(yīng)鏈中供應(yīng)商與經(jīng)銷商之間的回購契約,鮮有文獻針對回購策略在預(yù)售問題中的應(yīng)用進行研究。因此,在預(yù)售問題中,回購策略是否有利于經(jīng)銷商的收益提升,如何做出定價及訂貨決策都是非常值得研究的問題。根據(jù)產(chǎn)品的特性差異,將預(yù)售產(chǎn)品分為常規(guī)產(chǎn)品和新產(chǎn)品兩類分別進行研究:在常規(guī)產(chǎn)品的預(yù)售問題中,消費者對產(chǎn)品特性較為熟悉,于是自身消費心理的變化成為常見的退貨原因,此時折價回購使經(jīng)銷商利潤最高;而在新產(chǎn)品的預(yù)售問題中,消費者往往因產(chǎn)品特性不符合預(yù)期而退貨,此時回購策略的實施反而可能提高需求的不確定性,從而增加訂貨決策的難度,此時回購將不利于經(jīng)銷商的收益提升。另外,對被退回的產(chǎn)品不能再銷售時經(jīng)銷商的預(yù)售與回購策略的研究表明,經(jīng)銷商的最優(yōu)回購價格為剩余單位產(chǎn)品的殘值,且經(jīng)過比較發(fā)現(xiàn)經(jīng)銷商在常規(guī)產(chǎn)品的預(yù)售模型中的最優(yōu)利潤高于其在退貨不能再銷售的模型中的最優(yōu)利潤。最后,總結(jié)文章結(jié)論并展望未來研究方向。
[Abstract]:Faced with the high risk of product surplus and shortage brought by the uncertainty of market demand, dealers usually consider using presale strategy to improve prediction accuracy to a certain extent. However, for strategic consumers with uncertain product valuation during the presale period, there is a risk that the actual valuation is lower than expected or the consumption psychology and consumption environment change. Repurchase strategy implementation can reduce this forecast risk, thereby encouraging consumers to buy ahead. However, the effect of repurchase strategy on dealer income is unknown. At present, the research on repurchase strategy is mostly focused on the repurchase contract between supplier and dealer in supply chain. There is little literature on the application of repo strategy in presale. Therefore, in the pre-sale problem, whether the repurchase strategy is conducive to the increase of dealers' income, how to make pricing and ordering decisions are very worthy of study. According to the characteristic difference of the product, the pre-sale product is divided into two categories: the regular product and the new product. In the pre-sale problem of the conventional product, the consumer is familiar with the product characteristics. As a result, the change of consumer psychology becomes a common reason for returning goods. At this point, the discount repurchase makes the dealer the most profitable, while in the pre-sale of new products, consumers often return goods because the characteristics of the products do not meet expectations. On the contrary, the implementation of repurchase strategy may increase the uncertainty of demand and increase the difficulty of ordering decision. In addition, the research on resale and repurchase strategy of returned products shows that the optimal repo price of dealers is the residual value of residual unit products. Through comparison, it is found that the optimal profit of dealers in the pre-sale model of conventional products is higher than that in the model of non-resale of return goods. Finally, the conclusion of the paper is summarized and the future research direction is prospected.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F274

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