本文選題：生命線系統(tǒng) + 關(guān)聯(lián)關(guān)系　； 參考：《上海交通大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：生命線系統(tǒng)是指人民日常生活中必不可少，對(duì)于維持區(qū)域內(nèi)社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)基本功能起到關(guān)鍵支撐作用的設(shè)施，由最核心的關(guān)鍵基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，如供水系統(tǒng)、供電系統(tǒng)、通信系統(tǒng)、交通系統(tǒng)、醫(yī)療系統(tǒng)等組成。近年來(lái)，一方面各種突發(fā)事件頻頻發(fā)生，另一方面隨著工業(yè)化、現(xiàn)代化程度的提高，關(guān)鍵基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施子系統(tǒng)之間關(guān)聯(lián)日益緊密，整個(gè)生命線系統(tǒng)日益復(fù)雜和脆弱。 子系統(tǒng)中一個(gè)設(shè)施被破壞，不僅造成該子系統(tǒng)內(nèi)部其他設(shè)施受影響，而且由于子系統(tǒng)間的關(guān)聯(lián)關(guān)系，“多米諾骨牌”現(xiàn)象的級(jí)聯(lián)效應(yīng)極大影響了其他子系統(tǒng)的正常運(yùn)行，致使生命線系統(tǒng)整體的癱瘓，繼而對(duì)社會(huì)、經(jīng)濟(jì)、生態(tài)造成巨大的損失。因此考慮生命線系統(tǒng)子系統(tǒng)間復(fù)雜關(guān)聯(lián)關(guān)系的生命線系統(tǒng)應(yīng)急管理研究尤為重要。基于國(guó)內(nèi)外已有的研究成果，本文重點(diǎn)針對(duì)生命線系統(tǒng)各子系統(tǒng)相互耦合的特性，研究生命線系統(tǒng)的節(jié)點(diǎn)整體綜合設(shè)計(jì)與應(yīng)急響應(yīng)策略優(yōu)化。本文的主要研究?jī)?nèi)容如下： 首先，總結(jié)了突發(fā)事件和應(yīng)急管理的概念和特點(diǎn)，提出了一種新的突發(fā)事件應(yīng)急管理階段劃分方法，并說(shuō)明了各階段的核心任務(wù)與目標(biāo)。分析了國(guó)內(nèi)外突發(fā)事件應(yīng)急關(guān)系模式的特點(diǎn)和差異，闡述了我國(guó)突發(fā)事件應(yīng)急管理中亟待解決的問(wèn)題以及本文重點(diǎn)研究解決的問(wèn)題。 其次，針對(duì)突發(fā)事件發(fā)生前的應(yīng)急準(zhǔn)備階段，通過(guò)影響矩陣將多系統(tǒng)耦合多層級(jí)分布的生命線系統(tǒng)抽象為“節(jié)點(diǎn)-關(guān)系”圖�？紤]系統(tǒng)中不同類的任意兩節(jié)點(diǎn)間的相互影響，以最大化的系統(tǒng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)總服務(wù)能力為優(yōu)化目標(biāo)，建立了預(yù)算資金約束下，生命線系統(tǒng)節(jié)點(diǎn)整體綜合設(shè)計(jì)的數(shù)學(xué)模型，設(shè)計(jì)了有效的遺傳算法對(duì)模型進(jìn)行求解，通過(guò)不同規(guī)模下的數(shù)值實(shí)驗(yàn)結(jié)果表明了該算法的收斂性。最后，以典型情景為案例，深入分析了不同情況下的解的共性與區(qū)別，對(duì)決策部門(mén)合理設(shè)計(jì)生命線系統(tǒng)具有重要的參考價(jià)值。 最后，針對(duì)突發(fā)事件中的應(yīng)急響應(yīng)階段，將生命線系統(tǒng)抽象為多層分布式供應(yīng)鏈系統(tǒng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)。以供應(yīng)鏈的網(wǎng)絡(luò)流表示子系統(tǒng)內(nèi)的關(guān)系，以失效輸入輸出模型描述子系統(tǒng)間的關(guān)聯(lián)關(guān)系，分析系統(tǒng)節(jié)點(diǎn)修復(fù)的動(dòng)態(tài)特性及可用資源、時(shí)間約束，，建立了突發(fā)事件下有限時(shí)間內(nèi)的應(yīng)急修復(fù)策略與實(shí)時(shí)運(yùn)營(yíng)策略的聯(lián)合優(yōu)化模型。通過(guò)實(shí)際案例分析，與各子系統(tǒng)獨(dú)立應(yīng)急響應(yīng)策略相比較，此聯(lián)合應(yīng)急響應(yīng)策略模型表現(xiàn)更加優(yōu)異，可有效降低整個(gè)生命線系統(tǒng)的總損失，為決策者提供全面而有效的決策支持。
[Abstract]:Lifeline systems are facilities that are essential to people's daily lives and play a key supporting role in maintaining the basic socio-economic functions of the region, and are made up of the most core key infrastructure, such as water supply systems, power supply systems, communications systems, Transportation system, medical system, etc. In recent years, on the one hand, a variety of emergencies occur frequently; on the other hand, with the improvement of industrialization and modernization, the key infrastructure subsystems are increasingly closely related to each other, and the whole lifeline system is becoming increasingly complex and fragile. The destruction of one facility in the subsystem not only affects other facilities within the subsystem, but also the cascade effect of "domino" phenomenon greatly affects the normal operation of other subsystems because of the relationship between the subsystems. The whole lifeline system is paralyzed, and then it causes huge losses to society, economy and ecology. Therefore, it is very important to study the emergency management of lifeline system considering the complex relationship between lifeline system subsystems. Based on the existing research results at home and abroad, this paper focuses on the characteristics of coupling of lifeline system subsystems, the overall design of lifeline system nodes and optimization of emergency response strategy. The main contents of this paper are as follows: firstly, the concept and characteristics of emergency and emergency management are summarized, a new method of dividing emergency management stages is proposed, and the core tasks and objectives of each phase are explained. This paper analyzes on the characteristics and differences of the emergency relationship modes at home and abroad, and expounds the problems to be solved urgently in the emergency management of emergencies in China and the problems to be solved in this paper. Secondly, the lifeline system with multi-system coupling and multi-level distribution is abstracted into a node-relation graph through the influence matrix. Considering the interaction between any two nodes of different classes in the system, with the goal of maximizing the total service capacity of the system network, the mathematical model of the integrated design of the lifeline system nodes under the constraint of budget and funds is established. An effective genetic algorithm is designed to solve the model, and the convergence of the algorithm is demonstrated by numerical experiments on different scales. Finally, taking the typical situation as a case, this paper deeply analyzes the commonness and difference of the solution under different circumstances, which has important reference value for the rational design of lifeline system in the decision-making department. Finally, the lifeline system is abstracted as a multi-layer distributed supply chain system network for the emergency response stage. The relationship within the subsystem is represented by the network flow of the supply chain, the relationship between the subsystems is described by the failure input and output model, the dynamic characteristics of the system node repair and the available resources and time constraints are analyzed. The joint optimization model of emergency repair strategy and real time operation strategy is established. Through actual case analysis, compared with the independent emergency response strategy of each subsystem, the joint emergency response strategy model is more excellent and can effectively reduce the total loss of the whole lifeline system. Provide comprehensive and effective decision support for decision makers.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：D63

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