本文選題：庫存控制 + 定量預(yù)測(cè)法��； 參考：《華南理工大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著當(dāng)今社會(huì)科技的迅猛發(fā)展和市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的日趨激烈，汽車行業(yè)迅猛的發(fā)展，特別是近幾年，中國(guó)已經(jīng)成為世界上最大的汽車市場(chǎng)。2013年，我國(guó)的汽車銷量已經(jīng)突破了2000萬輛，早已超越了美國(guó)成為全球第一大市場(chǎng)。V公司是一家汽車發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)散熱器、風(fēng)扇和冷凝器等相關(guān)冷卻設(shè)備的供應(yīng)商。為了及時(shí)的滿足客戶的需求，高額的庫存量占用了較多的資金，如何在滿足客戶的需求的同時(shí)，合理的降低庫存成本，降低庫存風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，一直是V公司不斷研究和改進(jìn)的課題。為了解決這一難題，在2013年下半年V公司的精益生產(chǎn)部門提出了“-30計(jì)劃”，即在未來的兩年內(nèi)，將成本減少30%，計(jì)劃的重心則是供應(yīng)鏈環(huán)節(jié)。 本文首先對(duì)有關(guān)庫存管理的相關(guān)理論和已有的研究成果進(jìn)行總結(jié)和梳理。然后對(duì)V公司當(dāng)前的零備件庫存管理現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行調(diào)研分析，針對(duì)V公司在庫存管理過程中出現(xiàn)的庫存信息不準(zhǔn)確，倉(cāng)庫管理混亂等問題，根據(jù)制造業(yè)企業(yè)自身的特點(diǎn)以及V公司產(chǎn)品的特性，定制庫存管理策略并根據(jù)市場(chǎng)形勢(shì)變化加以調(diào)整。首先對(duì)V公司的所有備件進(jìn)行匯總并通過ABC分類法對(duì)V公司現(xiàn)存的零備件進(jìn)行分類，并針對(duì)不同的分類提出相應(yīng)的庫存管理方向，針對(duì)備件ABC三類的不同特點(diǎn)，找出適合備件庫存的控制方法。 對(duì)于C類備件采用周期性檢查（T,S）策略，將檢查周期定為一季度或半年，然后對(duì)相關(guān)缺乏的備件進(jìn)行統(tǒng)一采購(gòu)；對(duì)于B類備件，通過對(duì)相關(guān)備件的歷史數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行分析，將各類預(yù)測(cè)法的預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果進(jìn)行誤差分析，找出適合其使用情況的預(yù)測(cè)法，，然后將該預(yù)測(cè)法應(yīng)用到實(shí)際中去；對(duì)于A類備件，通過對(duì)其特點(diǎn)進(jìn)行分析，以零備件刀頭為例分析使用模型后如何使得庫存成本控制得以改進(jìn)；采用連續(xù)性的（r，Q）策略對(duì)備件進(jìn)行庫存控制，期望能幫助V公司改善其庫存管理問題。 文通過對(duì)V公司零備件庫存管理的研究，梳理公司內(nèi)部物資庫存管理的現(xiàn)狀并找出其實(shí)際運(yùn)行過程中存在的問題，通過定性與定量相結(jié)合的方法為V公司庫存管理提出相應(yīng)的優(yōu)化措施，以期對(duì)公司未來的發(fā)展產(chǎn)生積極作用。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of social science and technology and the increasingly fierce market competition, the automobile industry has developed rapidly, especially in recent years, China has become the largest automobile market in the world. Already overtaking the United States as the world's largest market. V is a car engine radiator, fan and condenser related cooling equipment suppliers. In order to meet the needs of customers in time, the high inventory occupies more funds. How to reasonably reduce inventory costs and reduce inventory risk while meeting the needs of customers, has been the subject of continuous research and improvement in V Company. In order to solve this problem, in the second half of 2013, V Company's lean production department put forward a "-30 plan", that is, cost reduction in the next two years, the focus of the plan is the supply chain. Firstly, this paper summarizes and combs the related theories and existing research results on inventory management. Secondly, the current situation of spare parts inventory management in V Company is investigated and analyzed, aiming at the problems of inaccurate inventory information and confused warehouse management in the inventory management process of V Company. According to the characteristics of manufacturing enterprises and V products, the inventory management strategy is customized and adjusted according to the changes of market situation. First of all, all spare parts of V Company are summarized and the existing spare parts of V Company are classified by ABC classification, and the corresponding inventory management direction is put forward according to the different classification, and the different characteristics of spare parts ABC are pointed out. Find out suitable control methods for spare parts inventory. For category C spare parts, periodic inspection is adopted, the inspection period is divided into one quarter or half a year, and then the spare parts that are lacking are purchased uniformly. For category B spare parts, the historical data of relevant spare parts are analyzed. The prediction results of all kinds of forecasting methods are analyzed to find out the forecasting method which is suitable for its use, and then the forecasting method is applied to the practice. Taking the spare parts cutter head as an example, the paper analyzes how to improve the inventory cost control after using the model, and adopts the continuous QR strategy to carry out the spare parts inventory control, which is expected to help V Company to improve its inventory management problem. Based on the research of spare parts inventory management in V Company, this paper combs the present situation of material inventory management and finds out the problems existing in its actual operation. Through the combination of qualitative and quantitative methods, this paper puts forward the corresponding optimization measures for the inventory management of V Company, in order to have a positive effect on the future development of the company.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華南理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F274;F426.471

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