本文選題：缺貨拖后　切入點(diǎn)：短缺效應(yīng)　出處：《昆明理工大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：市場需求的不確定、缺貨損失和庫存積壓都會(huì)給企業(yè)帶來不利影響,因此合理地制定訂購策略成為眾多供應(yīng)鏈企業(yè)關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)。一般而言,缺貨會(huì)導(dǎo)致一系列的損失(如缺貨成本的提高,補(bǔ)貨的額外成本等),然而在現(xiàn)實(shí)經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)中,部分忠實(shí)的消費(fèi)者對(duì)某些品牌商品具有偏好行為,在出現(xiàn)缺貨的情況下他們?cè)敢饫^續(xù)等待,供不應(yīng)求的銷售場面會(huì)刺激潛在消費(fèi)者的購買欲。相反地,剩余庫存的積壓會(huì)使得消費(fèi)者認(rèn)為該商品并不暢銷,供過于求的現(xiàn)象不但造成資源浪費(fèi),而且會(huì)流失一部分消費(fèi)群體,使他們更青睞于促銷火爆的缺貨產(chǎn)品。因此,本文擬在深入分析缺貨拖后與短缺效應(yīng)的基礎(chǔ)上,基于主從博弈理論,建立由一個(gè)供應(yīng)商和一個(gè)零售商構(gòu)成的供應(yīng)鏈協(xié)調(diào)契約模型,提出相應(yīng)的供應(yīng)鏈契約協(xié)調(diào)機(jī)制,實(shí)現(xiàn)供應(yīng)鏈系統(tǒng)整體最優(yōu)和企業(yè)共贏,從而為供應(yīng)商制定批發(fā)價(jià)格以及零售商調(diào)整訂購策略等方面提供科學(xué)有效的理論指導(dǎo)。因此,本文的研究意義如下:理論上,本文側(cè)重于缺貨拖后與短缺效應(yīng)帶來的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益,從供應(yīng)鏈協(xié)調(diào)角度出發(fā),探討供應(yīng)鏈訂貨協(xié)調(diào)問題,并進(jìn)一步分析非平穩(wěn)隨機(jī)需求下的兩周期迭代品供應(yīng)鏈協(xié)調(diào)情況,豐富了該領(lǐng)域的理論體系;實(shí)踐上,可為零售企業(yè)在不同缺貨程度下制定訂貨策略提供借鑒和參考,有助于企業(yè)運(yùn)營效率的提高和經(jīng)濟(jì)效益的增長。首先,本文研究了缺貨拖后與短缺效應(yīng)下的單周期供應(yīng)鏈協(xié)調(diào)問題。供應(yīng)商在銷售季節(jié)前和銷售季節(jié)末向零售商提供兩次訂購機(jī)會(huì),隨后根據(jù)主從博弈理論構(gòu)建批發(fā)價(jià)格契約模型,得出結(jié)論如下:當(dāng)存在缺貨拖后及弱短缺效應(yīng)時(shí),批發(fā)價(jià)格契約可以實(shí)現(xiàn)供應(yīng)鏈協(xié)調(diào),并且可在一定范圍內(nèi)實(shí)現(xiàn)供應(yīng)商和零售商之間對(duì)系統(tǒng)利潤的任意分配,此時(shí)的最優(yōu)訂貨策略是在銷售季節(jié)初大量訂貨,在銷售季節(jié)末進(jìn)行部分補(bǔ)貨;當(dāng)存在中等短缺效應(yīng)時(shí),批發(fā)價(jià)格契約不能協(xié)調(diào)供應(yīng)鏈,引入收益共享契約可實(shí)現(xiàn)供應(yīng)鏈協(xié)調(diào)并任意分配系統(tǒng)的利潤,此時(shí)的最優(yōu)訂貨策略是在銷售季節(jié)初不訂貨,而在銷售季節(jié)末進(jìn)行大量訂貨;當(dāng)存在強(qiáng)短缺效應(yīng)時(shí),批發(fā)價(jià)格契約不僅能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)供應(yīng)鏈協(xié)調(diào),而且可以任意分配系統(tǒng)利潤,此時(shí)的最優(yōu)訂貨策略和中等短缺效應(yīng)是類似的。其次,本文研究了缺貨拖后與非平穩(wěn)隨機(jī)需求下的兩周期迭代品供應(yīng)鏈協(xié)調(diào)問題�？紤]到需求的非平穩(wěn)、隨機(jī)性等特點(diǎn),假設(shè)第一階段的銷售情況對(duì)第二階段的市場需求有著直接影響,得出以下重要結(jié)論:當(dāng)缺貨拖后系數(shù)變大時(shí),零售商應(yīng)適當(dāng)降低第一階段的訂購數(shù)量,增加第二階段訂購數(shù)量;當(dāng)批發(fā)價(jià)格等于生產(chǎn)成本,且收益共享比例與成本共擔(dān)比例相等時(shí),結(jié)合收益共享與成本共擔(dān)的組合契約能夠達(dá)到完美共贏結(jié)局,同時(shí)可以實(shí)現(xiàn)系統(tǒng)利潤的任意分配。最后,通過以上研究內(nèi)容和結(jié)果,為企業(yè)存在缺貨拖后和短缺效應(yīng)情況下如何制定最優(yōu)訂貨策略提供合理化建議,同時(shí)提出本文內(nèi)容中存在的局限性,并且對(duì)未來的學(xué)術(shù)探索道路進(jìn)行展望。
[Abstract]:The uncertainty of market demand, stock loss and inventory backlog will bring adverse effect to the enterprise, thus establishing reasonable strategy in order to become the focus of many enterprises in the supply chain of concern. In general, the shortage will lead to a series of losses (such as shortage cost increase, replenishment additional costs), but in the real economic activities that part of the loyal consumers have preference for some brands of goods, in the case of shortage and they are willing to continue to wait, short sales scene will stimulate the potential consumers to buy. On the contrary, the remaining inventory backlog will make consumers believe that the goods are not sold, the phenomenon of pile up in excess of requirement is not only a waste of resources, but also the loss of a part of the consumer groups, so that they prefer the promotional hot stock products. Therefore, this paper based on the in-depth analysis of effect and short out later On the game theory based on the established model of supply chain coordination contract consisting of a supplier and a retailer, put forward the corresponding mechanism of supply chain coordination, implementation of supply chain system and the optimal overall enterprise win-win, and the wholesale price and the retailer's ordering strategy adjustment so as to provide scientific and effective theoretical guidance for supplier therefore, the significance of this study are as follows: in theory, this paper focuses on the shortage and shortage brought back the effect of economic benefits, starting from the perspective of supply chain coordination, supply chain coordination order problem, and further analysis of the two non iterative cycle products supply chain coordination stable under stochastic demand, enrich the theoretical system of the field; in practice, and can provide the reference for the retail business ordering strategy in different degree of shortage, is helpful to improve the efficiency of the enterprise and economic benefits The problem of single cycle growth. Firstly, the supply chain coordination is studied in this paper and the shortage of stock drag under the effect. The supplier before the selling season and the end of sales season to provide retailers with a two chance to order, then according to the construction of the wholesale price contract model of game theory, draw the conclusion as follows: when there is shortage of drag and weak shortage effect, the wholesale price contract can coordinate the supply chain, and can realize the system of any profit distribution between the supplier and the retailer in a certain range, the optimal ordering strategy at this time is a large order in the early part of the season, replenishment at the end of sales season; when there is shortage of secondary effects, the wholesale price contract cannot coordinate supply chain, introducing the revenue sharing contract can achieve supply chain coordination and arbitrary distribution system profit, optimal ordering strategy at this time is in the sales season in early order, and A large number of orders at the end of sales season; when there are strong shortage effect, the wholesale price contract can not only coordinate the supply chain, but also can profit distribution system, optimal order strategy and secondary effect is similar to the shortage of time. Secondly, two cycle iterative product supply chain coordination in this paper shortage and non-stationary delay under the stochastic demand. Considering the characteristics of nonstationary demand, randomness, has a direct impact on sales of the first stage of the hypothesis of the second phase of the market demand, draws the following important conclusion: when the drag coefficient of stock becomes large, retailers should be appropriate to reduce the first phase of the order quantity, increase the second period order quantity; when the wholesale price is equal to the cost of production, and the revenue sharing ratio and cost sharing ratio is equal, with the combination of revenue sharing contract and cost sharing to achieve win-win. Bureau of arbitrary distribution and can realize the profit of the system. Finally, through the above research contents and results, provide reasonable suggestions for the enterprise existence shortage and shortage of drag effect. How to develop the optimal ordering strategy, and puts forward the limitations of the content, and to explore the road of future academic prospects.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：昆明理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F274

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