本文選題：LNG接收站　切入點(diǎn)：庫存管理　出處：《西南石油大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的高速發(fā)展,天然氣的需求將迅速增長,而我國常規(guī)天然氣資源有限,需要大量進(jìn)口液化天然氣(LNG)來彌補(bǔ)天然氣的供需缺口,因此,LNG接收站的建設(shè)也蓬勃發(fā)展。LNG接收站作為LNG供應(yīng)鏈的中轉(zhuǎn)站,起到承上啟下的作用,只有匹配好LNG儲(chǔ)罐的可接卸量與LNG船的卸貨量,才能保證接收站的正常工作,避免接收站出現(xiàn)缺貨或超貨現(xiàn)象。這就要求我們從LNG供應(yīng)鏈的角度對(duì)接收站的庫存進(jìn)行管理與控制。然而,我國對(duì)LNG接收站的研究尚處于起步階段,還沒有從LNG供應(yīng)鏈的角度對(duì)接收站的庫存進(jìn)行研究。因此,本文從LNG供應(yīng)鏈的角度出發(fā),利用物流庫存系統(tǒng)中的庫存管理與控制方法來研究LNG接收站的庫存控制問題。 首先調(diào)研了物流系統(tǒng)中的庫存管理與控制基礎(chǔ)理論,對(duì)庫存控制問題的各基礎(chǔ)模型進(jìn)行篩選,確定出LNG接收站的庫存控制問題屬于確定性非均勻需求庫存問題。在此基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)LNG接收的庫存管理特點(diǎn)進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)調(diào)研,提出采用靜動(dòng)不確定策略建立LNG接收站的庫存控制模型。 確定了模型的建立方法后,首先采用灰色預(yù)測中的GM(1,1)模型對(duì)LNG接收站的下游市場需求進(jìn)行預(yù)測,計(jì)算出LNG接收站的最大、最小以及安全庫存水平。然后根據(jù)LNG接收站的庫存管理特點(diǎn)制定出接收站的庫存控制策略。在此基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)基于靜動(dòng)不確定策略的確定性非均勻需求庫存控制模型進(jìn)行調(diào)整,針對(duì)LNG的三種運(yùn)輸方式分別建立各自的庫存控制模型,在保證接收站正常運(yùn)營的前提下,使LNG供應(yīng)鏈的年期望總成本最低。最后,以W-W算法對(duì)模型進(jìn)行求解,確定出LNG接收站的最優(yōu)船型、最優(yōu)訂貨量及最優(yōu)到貨時(shí)間點(diǎn),制定年度最優(yōu)訂貨計(jì)劃。 針對(duì)基于靜動(dòng)不確定策略建立的LNG接收站庫存控制模型在接收站的部分需求實(shí)現(xiàn)后不能保證原訂貨計(jì)劃的最優(yōu)性的缺點(diǎn),建立了基于滾動(dòng)計(jì)劃的LNG接收站庫存控制模型。在部分需求實(shí)現(xiàn)后以接收站的實(shí)際庫存量更新原預(yù)測值,對(duì)需求未實(shí)現(xiàn)部分的庫存量進(jìn)行重新預(yù)測,從而判斷接收站在需求未實(shí)現(xiàn)的時(shí)間段內(nèi)是否會(huì)出現(xiàn)超貨或缺貨,如果出現(xiàn),確定其出現(xiàn)的時(shí)間點(diǎn)、超貨量及缺貨量,制定相應(yīng)的增加LNG現(xiàn)貨貿(mào)易或增加LNG槽車裝車量的滾動(dòng)計(jì)劃,保證接收站的安全運(yùn)營。 最后,運(yùn)用Visual Basic6.0語言編制了LNG接收站庫存管理與控制程序,采用編制的程序?qū)Σ澈Ｄ矻NG接收站進(jìn)行了實(shí)例計(jì)算,計(jì)算結(jié)果表明,該程序有較高的可靠性和實(shí)用價(jià)值。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's economy, natural gas demand will grow rapidly, but China's conventional natural gas resources are limited, need a large number of imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to make up the gap between supply and demand of natural gas, therefore, the construction of LNG receiving station is booming.LNG receiving station as a transit station from the LNG supply chain, the role of discharge amount, only LNG, the tank can discharge quantity and the LNG of the ship, in order to ensure the normal work of the receiving station, receiving station to avoid out of stock or super cargo. This requires us to manage and control the receiving station inventory LNG from the perspective of the supply chain. However, China is still in the initial stage of LNG receiving station, there is no research on the LNG receiving station inventory from the perspective of the supply chain. Therefore, the LNG from the perspective of supply chain, the inventory management and control methods of logistics inventory system to The inventory control problem of LNG receiving station is studied.
The first investigation of the inventory management and control of the basic theory of logistics system, the basic model of inventory control problems were selected to determine LNG receiving station inventory control problem belongs to the non deterministic uniform inventory problem. On this basis, the LNG inventory management features of receiving a detailed investigation, the static dynamic uncertainty strategy of the establishment of LNG receiving station inventory control model.
The model building method, firstly uses the grey prediction GM (1,1) model to forecast the LNG receiving station downstream market demand, calculate the maximum LNG receiving station, and the minimum level of safety stock. Then according to the characteristics of LNG inventory management station to develop inventory control strategy on the receiving station. On the basis of the static dynamic uncertainty determination strategy non uniform demand inventory control model is adjusted based on the three modes of transport LNG sets of inventory control model, to ensure the normal operation of the premise of receiving station, the LNG supply chain total cost expected minimum. Finally, to solve the model W-W algorithm to determine the optimal ship type LNG receiving station, the optimal order quantity and optimal delivery time, the formulation of the annual optimal order plan.
According to the static dynamic uncertainty method to establish the LNG receiving station cannot guarantee an optimal inventory control model of the shortcomings of the original plan in order to achieve part of the demand receiving station based on the established rolling plan of LNG receiving station inventory control model based on the updated values of the original forecast actual inventory in the part of the demand after the realization to receive the station. To forecast the demand did not achieve the inventory of parts, so as to judge whether the receiving station in the time period needs unrealized appear super goods or out of stock, if present, determine the time point of its appearance, super volume and shortage, making a corresponding increase in LNG spot trade or increase the rolling plan of LNG tanker loading and ensure the safe operation of the receiving station.
Finally, the inventory management and control program of LNG receiving station is compiled by using Visual Basic6.0 language. The example of a LNG receiving station in Bohai is calculated by the compiled program, and the calculation results show that the program has high reliability and practical value.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南石油大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TE82

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