本文選題：有效供給　切入點：生鮮農(nóng)產(chǎn)品　出處：《江蘇大學》2016年博士論文

【摘要】：我國是生鮮農(nóng)產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)和消費大國,但由于完全競爭環(huán)境下生鮮農(nóng)產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)者眾多、參與主體規(guī)模小、市場發(fā)育不完善等諸多原因,我國的生鮮農(nóng)產(chǎn)品在供給過程中問題頻現(xiàn),主要表現(xiàn)為生鮮農(nóng)產(chǎn)品“賣難買難”共存、質(zhì)量問題頻現(xiàn)及物流效率低下等。雖然近年來政府和社會對生鮮農(nóng)產(chǎn)品的供給問題給予了高度重視,并出臺了一系列優(yōu)惠保障扶持政策,我國的生鮮農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供給問題依然沒有得到有效遏制。在加快農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化、實現(xiàn)全面小康社會建設(shè)的目標指導下,如何保障生鮮農(nóng)產(chǎn)品有效供給已經(jīng)發(fā)展成為制約我國農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展、廣大人民生活水平提高、甚至社會和諧穩(wěn)定的亟待解決的大事。鑒于此,本文從造成我國生鮮農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供給問題的根源出發(fā),整合產(chǎn)品供求理論、蛛網(wǎng)理論、供應鏈管理及商品流通等相關(guān)理論,在國家自然科學基金主任基金“果蔬類農(nóng)產(chǎn)品有效供給機制研究(71340024)”、國家自然科學基金面上項目“低碳經(jīng)濟視角下現(xiàn)代農(nóng)村物流體系構(gòu)建與調(diào)控研究(71473213)”和江蘇省研究生創(chuàng)新基金“生鮮農(nóng)產(chǎn)品安全供給對策研究(KYZZ_0284)”的資助下,應用博弈論建模、神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡預測和非線性規(guī)劃等方法對我國的生鮮農(nóng)產(chǎn)品有效供給問題進行了系統(tǒng)深入的研究,主要研究工作和結(jié)論如下:(1)在大量資料調(diào)查和訪談的基礎(chǔ)上,從供給數(shù)量、供給質(zhì)量和物流過程三個維度研究了我國生鮮農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供給現(xiàn)狀及影響有效供給的主要因素,明確了我國生鮮農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供給中的關(guān)鍵問題及產(chǎn)生這些問題的主要原因。研究表明,生鮮農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供需不對稱問題反復、生鮮食品質(zhì)量安全事件頻發(fā)和生鮮物流環(huán)節(jié)多損耗大是當前制約我國生鮮農(nóng)產(chǎn)品有效供給的關(guān)鍵問題。(2)針對我國生鮮農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供需不對稱難題,首先以蔬菜為例建立了我國生鮮農(nóng)產(chǎn)品需求預測的四層神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡模型,從整體上保障我國生鮮農(nóng)產(chǎn)品的供給數(shù)量均衡;然后結(jié)合生鮮農(nóng)產(chǎn)品產(chǎn)出不確定的特點,根據(jù)我國生鮮供應鏈發(fā)展實踐,分別對強弱利益約束下的農(nóng)戶生鮮農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供給量決策行為進行了分析,并從生產(chǎn)補貼視角研究了政府補貼對農(nóng)戶生鮮農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供給數(shù)量決策行為的影響。結(jié)果表明,造成我國生鮮農(nóng)產(chǎn)品“賣難買難”價格異常波動的根源是供需不對稱,即供不應求或供過于求,因此保障生鮮農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供給數(shù)量均衡的首要方法是確保供給與需求匹配。當產(chǎn)出不確定時農(nóng)戶(生鮮生產(chǎn)商)和生鮮經(jīng)營商之間締結(jié)強利益連接關(guān)系更有利于農(nóng)戶朝著經(jīng)營商希望的供給量方向努力。農(nóng)業(yè)補貼政策對保護農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)者的利益具有一定作用,且系數(shù)補貼法更能影響生產(chǎn)者的供給量決策行為。(3)基于微觀主體行為分析,從農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供應鏈一體化視角分別研究了政府干預和市場機制下的生鮮供應鏈參與主體供給質(zhì)量決策行為,并以菜管家為例對其生鮮供應鏈一體化實踐進行了案例研究。研究結(jié)果表明,實施供應鏈一體化有利于提高生鮮農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供給質(zhì)量水平。一體化生鮮供應鏈中參與主體之間信息高度共享、目標高度協(xié)同且產(chǎn)品全程可追溯,能夠有效遏制農(nóng)戶以次充好提供劣質(zhì)不合格品的概率。此外,研究發(fā)現(xiàn),在生鮮農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供應鏈一體化情形下核心經(jīng)營企業(yè)的質(zhì)量監(jiān)管行為與傳統(tǒng)模式相比存在一定的“經(jīng)驗背反”現(xiàn)象,即當政府對生鮮供給質(zhì)量的監(jiān)管強度增大時,以個人效用最大化為目標,生鮮供應鏈核心企業(yè)可減少對農(nóng)戶的產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量檢測行為,這與傳統(tǒng)經(jīng)驗正好相反。(4)通過對“農(nóng)戶—生鮮經(jīng)營商—消費者”三級供應鏈中生鮮農(nóng)產(chǎn)品物流過程的抽象刻畫,建立了既考慮數(shù)量損耗又考慮質(zhì)量衰減控制的生鮮農(nóng)產(chǎn)品物流過程優(yōu)化模型,并以X公司的冷鮮肉物流過程數(shù)據(jù)為代表進行了實例分析。研究結(jié)果表明,當既考慮生鮮數(shù)量損耗又考慮質(zhì)量衰減控制時,雖然總能耗和損耗成本有所增加,但生鮮農(nóng)產(chǎn)品的供給質(zhì)量更有保證。這為生鮮農(nóng)產(chǎn)品冷鏈物流過程中各物流單元的時間溫度控制提供了可供參考的科學依據(jù)。(5)根據(jù)上述研究結(jié)果,分別從合理調(diào)控生鮮農(nóng)產(chǎn)品市場、保障供需平衡,推進供應鏈一體化、確保生鮮農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供給質(zhì)量,縮短生鮮物流渠道、優(yōu)化生鮮物流過程以及建立健全生鮮農(nóng)產(chǎn)品有效供給保障配套設(shè)施等視角提出了保障我國生鮮農(nóng)產(chǎn)品有效供給的對策建議。
[Abstract]:China is a big country of production and consumption of fresh agricultural products, but because of the fresh agricultural products producers complete competition under the environment of many participants in the small scale, many reasons of market development is not perfect, are frequent problems in the supply process of fresh agricultural products, mainly for the fresh agricultural products difficult to sell difficult to buy "coexist, quality frequency and logistics efficiency is low. In recent years, the government and society have paid much attention to the supply of fresh agricultural products, and introduced a series of preferential policies to support security, fresh agricultural products supply in China still has not been effectively curbed. In accelerating agricultural modernization, realize the goal of building a comprehensive well-off society under the and how to ensure the effective supply of fresh agricultural products has become restricting China's agricultural development, improve the living standards of the people, even the social harmony and stability to solve large Things. In view of this, starting from the root cause the supply of fresh agricultural products in our country, the integration of product supply and demand theory, the cobweb theory, supply chain management and commodity circulation and other related theories, in the National Natural Science Foundation Director fund "the effective supply mechanism of fruit and vegetable product Research (71340024)," Research on the construction of modern rural logistics the system from the perspective of low carbon economy and regulation of the National Natural Science Foundation Project "(71473213) and Jiangsu province graduate innovation fund" Research on Countermeasures for security supply of fresh agricultural products (KYZZ_0284) which is sponsored by the application of game theory modeling, made a systematic and thorough study of the effective supply of fresh agricultural products in China neural network prediction and nonlinear programming method, the main research work and conclusions are as follows: (1) based on a large number of survey and interview data, from the quantity, quality and supply logistics process three Study on the dimensions of the condition and influence of the fresh agricultural products supply in China's main factors of effective supply, the key problems of fresh agricultural products supply in China and the main causes of these problems. The results show that the asymmetry of supply and demand repeated fresh agricultural products, fresh food quality and safety incidents frequent loss of fresh logistics links is the key problems in the effective supply of fresh agricultural products in China. (2) for fresh agricultural products in China supply and demand asymmetry problem, first with vegetables as an example to establish four layers of God of our agricultural products demand forecast by network model, the overall security of fresh agricultural products in China and then combined with the balanced supply quantity; the characteristics of fresh agricultural products output uncertainty, according to our fresh supply chain development practice, respectively on the strength under the constraint of farmers interests of fresh agricultural products supply decision behavior Analysis and study the impact of government subsidies to farmers of fresh agricultural products supply decision-making behavior from the perspective of subsidy production. The results showed that the root cause of the fresh agricultural products in China is difficult to sell difficult to buy "abnormal price fluctuations in supply and demand is asymmetric, that is in short supply or the primary method of pile up in excess of requirement, fresh agricultural products supply is balanced to ensure the supply and demand matching. When the output uncertainty when farmers (fresh producers) and fresh operators supply direction connection is more conducive to the interests of a strong farmers towards operators hope the effort. The interests of agricultural subsidy policy on the protection of agricultural producers has certain effect, and the coefficient of subsidy law could affect the producer's supply decision. (3) based on the analysis of the behavior, from the perspective of agricultural products supply chain integration are studied under the market mechanism and government intervention Fresh food supply chain in the main supply of quality decision behavior, and the food steward case study is carried out on the fresh supply chain integration practice. The results show that the implementation of supply chain integration is conducive to improve the quality level of the supply of fresh agricultural products. In the high degree of information sharing between the subjects of the integration of fresh supply chain, and collaborative products throughout the target height can be traced back to the probability of farmers effectively curb substandard goods shoddy bad. In addition, the study found that the quality of supervision in the core business of fresh agricultural products supply chain integration under tube behavior compared with the traditional model of certain "experience back" phenomenon, that is when the government increases the strength of regulation to the fresh quality of supply and to the individual utility maximization as the goal, the core enterprise of fresh supply chain can reduce the product quality inspection on Farmers' behavior, and the traditional experience On the contrary. (4) the abstract description of the "fresh three level supply chain operators and consumers - fresh farmers in agricultural products logistics process, is established to consider the amount of loss and consider the optimization model of fresh agricultural product logistics process quality control and attenuation, cold meat logistics process data of X company as the representative of the example analysis. The results show that when both the number and quality of fresh loss considering attenuation control, although the total energy consumption and loss cost increases, but the supply of fresh agricultural products more quality assurance. This provides scientific reference for the logistics unit of fresh agricultural products cold chain logistics in the process of time temperature control. (5) according to the results of the study were from the reasonable regulation of fresh agricultural products market, guarantee the balance of supply and demand, promote the integration of the supply chain, to ensure the supply of fresh agricultural product quality, shorten the fresh From the perspective of logistics channels, optimizing the fresh logistics process, establishing and improving the effective supply of fresh agricultural products, and supporting facilities, we put forward countermeasures and suggestions to guarantee the effective supply of fresh agricultural products in China.

【學位授予單位】：江蘇大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F326.6
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本文編號：1665802