本文選題：投資風(fēng)險　切入點(diǎn)：風(fēng)險管理　出處：《中國海洋大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：我國物流園區(qū)在不斷發(fā)展過程中實(shí)現(xiàn)自身的完善,目前正處于物流園區(qū)“軸一幅”系統(tǒng)階段。倉儲物流園區(qū)的投資建設(shè)過程極具創(chuàng)新性和挑戰(zhàn)性,要求在專業(yè)化物流園區(qū)內(nèi)完成基本布局,引入現(xiàn)代供應(yīng)鏈管理模式,滿足日益復(fù)雜的物流服務(wù)的需要,實(shí)現(xiàn)物流服務(wù)內(nèi)容和地域上的擴(kuò)展。東方倉儲物流園區(qū)位于天津臨港工業(yè)區(qū)內(nèi),旨在打造現(xiàn)代化的倉儲物流園區(qū)。東方倉儲物流園區(qū)工程總投資金額超過2億人民幣,其投資過程必將面臨各種風(fēng)險。在發(fā)展過程中由于各種不確定性的存在,將導(dǎo)致倉儲物流園區(qū)的發(fā)展面臨各類風(fēng)險。在東方倉儲物流園區(qū)工程投資風(fēng)險識別階段,通過現(xiàn)階段數(shù)據(jù)的搜集和現(xiàn)狀分析,結(jié)合東方倉儲物流園區(qū)投資發(fā)展階段的特性,將投資風(fēng)險經(jīng)過歸納總結(jié)為環(huán)境風(fēng)險、市場風(fēng)險、經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險、技術(shù)風(fēng)險和管理風(fēng)險五種。在風(fēng)險評估階段,選定德爾菲法進(jìn)行定性評價,采用層次分析法與模糊綜合評價法進(jìn)行定量評價,定量和定性方法相結(jié)合創(chuàng)建投資風(fēng)險指標(biāo)評價體系。指標(biāo)體系中目標(biāo)層為天津臨港工業(yè)區(qū)東方倉儲物流園區(qū)投資風(fēng)險評估體系；準(zhǔn)則層包含環(huán)境風(fēng)險,市場風(fēng)險,經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險,技術(shù)風(fēng)險和管理風(fēng)險;方案層包括經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展環(huán)境、市場調(diào)研、產(chǎn)業(yè)政策調(diào)整、需求手段變化和管理機(jī)制變更等20個指標(biāo)。本文的創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)體現(xiàn)在將風(fēng)險管理理論與物流園區(qū)特征相結(jié)合,采用適用于物流園區(qū)風(fēng)險管理評價的定量分析和評估,得到物流園區(qū)風(fēng)險評價因素。采用模糊綜合評價法,計算衡量物流園區(qū)風(fēng)險管理主要評價因素的地位,并對風(fēng)險因素進(jìn)行排序歸類。對實(shí)例天津臨港工業(yè)區(qū)東方倉儲物流園區(qū)進(jìn)行科學(xué)分析,分別從宏觀和微觀角度提出相應(yīng)風(fēng)險管理對策,促進(jìn)其可持續(xù)發(fā)展。模糊評價法的計算結(jié)果顯示天津臨港工業(yè)區(qū)東方倉儲物流園區(qū)工程項(xiàng)目的投資風(fēng)險整體評價結(jié)果為較安全,但是其潛在風(fēng)險仍不可忽視。在眾多風(fēng)險中經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險的隱患最大,市場風(fēng)險次之,技術(shù)風(fēng)險,環(huán)境風(fēng)險和管理風(fēng)險重要性較弱。針對東方倉儲物流園區(qū)的投資風(fēng)險識別結(jié)果,分別提出相應(yīng)風(fēng)險規(guī)避對策。
[Abstract]:The logistics park of our country realizes its own perfection in the process of continuous development, and is now in the "axis one piece" system stage of the logistics park. The investment and construction process of the storage logistics park is extremely innovative and challenging. It is required to complete the basic layout in the specialized logistics park, introduce the modern supply chain management mode, and meet the needs of increasingly complex logistics services. The Dongfang Warehouse Logistics Park is located in Tianjin Port Industrial Zone, which aims to create a modern warehousing logistics park. The total investment of the Dongfang Warehouse Logistics Park project exceeds 200 million RMB. The process of investment is bound to face all kinds of risks. In the process of development, due to the existence of various uncertainties, the development of warehousing logistics park will face all kinds of risks. Through the current data collection and current situation analysis, combined with the characteristics of the investment development stage of Dongfang Warehouse Logistics Park, the investment risk is summed up as environmental risk, market risk and economic risk. In the stage of risk assessment, Delphi method is selected for qualitative evaluation, and AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation are used for quantitative evaluation. Quantitative and qualitative methods are combined to establish an index evaluation system for investment risk. The target level of the index system is the investment risk assessment system of Dongfang warehousing logistics park in Tianjin Lingang Industrial Zone, and the criterion layer includes environmental risk, market risk and economic risk. Technical risk and management risk; Plan level includes economic development environment, market research, industrial policy adjustment, The innovation of this paper is to combine the theory of risk management with the characteristics of logistics park, and adopt quantitative analysis and evaluation suitable for risk management evaluation of logistics park. The risk evaluation factors of logistics park are obtained. The position of the main evaluation factors of risk management in logistics park is calculated and measured by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The risk factors are sorted and classified. A case study of Tianjin Lingang Industrial Zone Oriental Warehouse Logistics Park is carried out. The corresponding risk management countermeasures are put forward from the macro and micro perspectives, respectively. The result of fuzzy evaluation method shows that the overall evaluation result of investment risk of Dongfang warehousing logistics park project in Tianjin port industrial zone is relatively safe. But the potential risk can not be ignored. Among the many risks, the hidden danger of economic risk is the biggest, the market risk is the second, and the importance of technology risk, environmental risk and management risk is weak. The corresponding countermeasures of risk aversion are put forward respectively.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國海洋大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F259.27

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