本文關(guān)鍵詞： 供應(yīng)鏈風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估 故障樹(shù)分析 報(bào)童模型 網(wǎng)絡(luò)層次分析　出處：《燕山大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)的快速發(fā)展促使供應(yīng)鏈外部環(huán)境和內(nèi)部運(yùn)作的動(dòng)態(tài)變化進(jìn)一步加劇，使其所面臨的不確定性因素增多，進(jìn)而使得由供應(yīng)鏈風(fēng)險(xiǎn)所引起的供應(yīng)鏈延遲和中斷頻繁發(fā)生。加強(qiáng)對(duì)供應(yīng)鏈風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的識(shí)別與評(píng)估研究，是關(guān)系到能否更好地防范和控制供應(yīng)鏈風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、保證供應(yīng)鏈正常運(yùn)作的關(guān)鍵，因此此項(xiàng)研究具有很強(qiáng)的理論意義和實(shí)踐價(jià)值。 論文在研究國(guó)內(nèi)外大量相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)的基礎(chǔ)之上，吸收國(guó)內(nèi)外豐富的研究成果，綜合運(yùn)用供應(yīng)鏈管理、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理等多個(gè)學(xué)科的理論和報(bào)童模型、網(wǎng)絡(luò)層次分析法、故障樹(shù)分析等多種量化技術(shù)，采用理論分析與算例分析相結(jié)合的方法，對(duì)供應(yīng)鏈風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的識(shí)別與評(píng)估進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)的研究。主要研究?jī)?nèi)容如下： 首先，采用供應(yīng)鏈運(yùn)作參考模型對(duì)供應(yīng)鏈所面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行識(shí)別，得到了比較全面的供應(yīng)鏈風(fēng)險(xiǎn)系統(tǒng)識(shí)別結(jié)果。在此基礎(chǔ)之上，引入了對(duì)復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)分析行之有效的故障樹(shù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析方法，并建立了基于故障樹(shù)的供應(yīng)鏈風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估模型。同時(shí)，通過(guò)應(yīng)用報(bào)童模型對(duì)供應(yīng)鏈風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的成本性及收益性進(jìn)行權(quán)衡，得到更為合理的底事件發(fā)生概率。其次，在故障樹(shù)中引入權(quán)重，通過(guò)網(wǎng)絡(luò)層次分析法確定底事件之間的相對(duì)權(quán)重，，更好的體現(xiàn)了供應(yīng)鏈管理者對(duì)不同風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的敏感度及需求的差異，真實(shí)地反映了實(shí)際情況。最后，通過(guò)對(duì)故障樹(shù)定量分析的改進(jìn)得到更加合理的供應(yīng)鏈系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)概率及各個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的重要度，并通過(guò)算例模擬對(duì)整個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估過(guò)程進(jìn)行數(shù)據(jù)分析，對(duì)模型結(jié)果參數(shù)的實(shí)際意義作出解釋?zhuān)瑸楣⿷?yīng)鏈管理者進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析提供了依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economy and society, the dynamic changes of external environment and internal operation of supply chain are becoming more and more serious, and the uncertainty factors are increasing. Therefore, the delay and interruption of supply chain caused by supply chain risk occur frequently. To strengthen the research on identification and evaluation of supply chain risk is related to whether we can better prevent and control supply chain risk. The key to ensure the normal operation of the supply chain, so this study has a strong theoretical and practical value. On the basis of studying a large number of related literature at home and abroad, this paper absorbs abundant research results at home and abroad, and synthetically applies the theories and newsboy models of supply chain management, risk management, and network analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Fault tree analysis and other quantitative techniques are used to systematically study the risk identification and evaluation of supply chain by combining theoretical analysis with case analysis. The main contents of this paper are as follows: First, the supply chain operation reference model is used to identify the risks faced by the supply chain, and a more comprehensive identification results of the supply chain risk system are obtained. An effective fault tree risk analysis method for complex system analysis is introduced, and a supply chain risk assessment model based on fault tree is established. By using newsboy model to weigh the cost and profitability of supply chain risk, a more reasonable probability of bottom event occurrence is obtained. Secondly, the weight is introduced into the fault tree. Through the analytic hierarchy process to determine the relative weight between the bottom events, better reflect the supply chain managers' sensitivity to different risks and differences in demand, and truly reflect the actual situation. By improving the quantitative analysis of the fault tree, we can get more reasonable risk probability and the importance of each risk in the supply chain system, and analyze the data of the whole risk assessment process by the example simulation. The practical significance of the model result parameters is explained, which provides a basis for the risk analysis of supply chain managers.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：燕山大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F274;F224

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