本文選題：可計(jì)算一般均衡 + 萬(wàn)億投資　； 參考：《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家》2012年10期

【摘要】：本文構(gòu)建了一個(gè)凱恩斯結(jié)構(gòu)的中國(guó)可計(jì)算一般均衡模型,以2007年的社會(huì)核算矩陣為數(shù)據(jù)基礎(chǔ),模擬考察了4萬(wàn)億投資的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)、部門(mén)經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)以及分行業(yè)新增投資的經(jīng)濟(jì)效率。研究發(fā)現(xiàn):(1)2009年至2010年間的4萬(wàn)億投資方案能每年拉動(dòng)GDP約1.42%,增加就業(yè)3.44%,但同時(shí)也擠出了相當(dāng)大量的私人消費(fèi),導(dǎo)致居民福利水平下降嚴(yán)重,有利有弊;(2)相比于原計(jì)劃,歷經(jīng)調(diào)整最后實(shí)際實(shí)施的刺激方案雖然宏觀效應(yīng)稍弱,但更加有利于三次產(chǎn)業(yè)整體結(jié)構(gòu)的改善;(3)分部門(mén)來(lái)看,用于公共管理和社會(huì)組織、教育以及水利、環(huán)境和公共設(shè)施管理業(yè)三部門(mén)的政府投資支出效率較高,而房地產(chǎn)業(yè)、采礦業(yè)、電水氣業(yè)三個(gè)部門(mén)的投資效應(yīng)最差且為負(fù)面影響,尤其是房地產(chǎn)業(yè)。
[Abstract]:In this paper, we construct a Keynesian Chinese computable general equilibrium model. Based on the social accounting matrix of 2007, we simulate and examine the macro-economy of 4 trillion investment. Sectoral economic effects and economic efficiency of new investment by sector. The study found that: (1) the $4 trillion investment plan between 2009 and 2010 can boost GDP by about 1.422a year, increase employment by 3.44%, but at the same time squeeze out a considerable amount of private consumption, resulting in a serious decline in the welfare level of residents, with both advantages and disadvantages; (2) compared with the original plan, The stimulus package, which was finally implemented after adjustment, although slightly weak in macro effect, is more conducive to the improvement of the overall structure of the three industries; (3) in subsector terms, it is used in public administration and social organization, education and water conservancy. The three sectors of environment and public facilities management have higher efficiency of government investment, while the three sectors of real estate, mining and electricity and gas have the worst and negative effects, especially the real estate industry.
【作者單位】： 華中科技大學(xué)管理學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金(71073059、71173083) 國(guó)家社會(huì)科學(xué)基金(09BJL034) 教育部人文社會(huì)科學(xué)基金(09YJA790079)的資助
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F812.4;F224;F123.6

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前6條

1 秦學(xué)志;張康;孫曉琳;;產(chǎn)業(yè)關(guān)聯(lián)視角下的政府投資拉動(dòng)效應(yīng)研究[J];數(shù)量經(jīng)濟(jì)技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2010年09期

2 石季輝;劉蘭娟;王軍;;財(cái)政民生支出CGE模型閉合條件的選擇與檢驗(yàn)[J];數(shù)量經(jīng)濟(jì)技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2011年09期

3 范金;楊中衛(wèi);趙彤;;中國(guó)宏觀社會(huì)核算矩陣的編制[J];世界經(jīng)濟(jì)文匯;2010年04期

4 嚴(yán)斌劍;范金;;中國(guó)CGE模型宏觀閉合的實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)[J];統(tǒng)計(jì)研究;2009年02期

5 劉洪濤;郭菊娥;席酉民;郭廣濤;;金融危機(jī)背景下投資效應(yīng)的社會(huì)核算矩陣分析[J];中國(guó)人口.資源與環(huán)境;2009年02期

6 郭菊娥;郭廣濤;孟磊;薛勇;;4萬(wàn)億投資對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的拉動(dòng)效應(yīng)測(cè)算分析[J];管理評(píng)論;2009年02期

【共引文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 唐文進(jìn);徐曉偉;陶r，

本文編號(hào)：2088170