本文選題：時(shí)間序列分析 + 預(yù)測建模��； 參考：《電子科技大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：流程工業(yè)生產(chǎn)通常在高溫、高壓等極端惡劣的環(huán)境下作業(yè),事故的發(fā)生幾率較大,后果嚴(yán)重。在現(xiàn)代工廠中,配置在大型復(fù)雜工業(yè)過程中的集散控制系統(tǒng)以及緊急停車系統(tǒng),大大提高了自動(dòng)化控制水平,也使過程工業(yè)中大量有價(jià)值的信息蘊(yùn)含其中,這之中也包含了報(bào)警信息。但大部分報(bào)警系統(tǒng)只能獲取表層的報(bào)警信息,并不能分析、處理這些數(shù)據(jù),使其充分發(fā)揮價(jià)值。如果操作人員能利用報(bào)警系統(tǒng)對(duì)工業(yè)測控系統(tǒng)中參數(shù)變化情況進(jìn)行監(jiān)測,在報(bào)警系統(tǒng)的參數(shù)發(fā)生異常時(shí)發(fā)出預(yù)警,操作人員會(huì)做出及時(shí)的處理;或者即使無法及時(shí)發(fā)現(xiàn)參數(shù)變化,也會(huì)因報(bào)警系統(tǒng)發(fā)出報(bào)警,使得事故得以避免,從而減輕操作人員心理壓力并緩解工作強(qiáng)度。集散控制系統(tǒng)數(shù)據(jù)庫中記錄了大量的歷史數(shù)據(jù),這些數(shù)據(jù)隨著過程安全問題的重視,在流程工業(yè)中得到更多利用。因而,利用工業(yè)參數(shù)變化來進(jìn)行工業(yè)現(xiàn)場預(yù)警有著非常重要的意義。本文首先介紹了時(shí)間序列分析方法的研究進(jìn)展,并介紹了時(shí)間序列分析方法的基本概念以及建模過程,提出了一種過程報(bào)警的預(yù)測方法,使用VB技術(shù)、SQL數(shù)據(jù)庫技術(shù)以及OPC技術(shù)設(shè)計(jì)了過程報(bào)警管理系統(tǒng),對(duì)OPC服務(wù)器以及客戶端的程序進(jìn)行了設(shè)計(jì)。將時(shí)間序列模型與過程報(bào)警狀態(tài)序列和持續(xù)時(shí)間相結(jié)合,通過Matlab的TE平臺(tái)實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)現(xiàn)場監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù)的處理以及建模過程,并在VB中使用ActiveX技術(shù)實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)Matlab處理結(jié)果的調(diào)用,實(shí)現(xiàn)了對(duì)我公司現(xiàn)場數(shù)據(jù)的監(jiān)測、預(yù)警以及報(bào)表統(tǒng)計(jì)等功能。
[Abstract]:The process industrial production usually works under the extremely bad environment such as high temperature and high pressure, the accident occurrence probability is big, the consequence is serious. In modern factories, distributed control systems and emergency parking systems, which are deployed in large-scale and complex industrial processes, greatly improve the level of automation control, and make a large amount of valuable information contained in the process industry. It also contains an alarm message. However, most alarm systems can only obtain the alarm information in the surface layer, and can not analyze and process these data, so that they can give full play to the value. If the operator can use the alarm system to monitor the change of the parameters in the industrial measurement and control system, and issue an early warning when the parameters of the alarm system are abnormal, the operator will make timely treatment; Or even if the change of parameters can not be detected in time, the alarm system will send out an alarm, so that the accident can be avoided, thereby reducing the psychological pressure of the operator and alleviating the working intensity. A large number of historical data have been recorded in the database of distributed control system. With the attention of process security, these data have been used more and more in the process industry. Therefore, it is very important to make use of the industrial parameter change to carry on the industrial spot early warning. This paper first introduces the research progress of time series analysis method, introduces the basic concept of time series analysis method and the modeling process, and puts forward a forecasting method of process alarm. The process alarm management system is designed by using VB technology, SQL database technology and OPC technology, and the program of OPC server and client is designed. This paper combines the time series model with the process alarm state sequence and duration, realizes the processing and modeling process of the field monitoring data through the te platform of Matlab, and uses the ActiveX technology in VB to realize the call to the Matlab processing result. Realized the monitoring of our company's site data, early warning and report statistics and other functions.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：電子科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TB496;TP277

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本文編號(hào)：1902251