本文選題：兵器科學(xué)與技術(shù)　切入點(diǎn)：動態(tài)貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)　出處：《兵工學(xué)報》2017年11期

【摘要】：針對傳統(tǒng)可靠性分析方法難以描述系統(tǒng)動態(tài)特性的問題,提出了一種基于多狀態(tài)動態(tài)貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)的視情維修可用性建模方法。在定義多狀態(tài)元件的基礎(chǔ)上,構(gòu)建了基于Markov模型的視情維修狀態(tài)轉(zhuǎn)移模型,并引入了吸收狀態(tài)。通過構(gòu)建多狀態(tài)動態(tài)貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型,確定了無維修、完全維修、不完全維修、視情維修和吸收狀態(tài)下的狀態(tài)轉(zhuǎn)移關(guān)系,并根據(jù)串聯(lián)和并聯(lián)邏輯關(guān)系對條件概率賦值。以某控制單元為例,構(gòu)建動態(tài)故障樹模型、動態(tài)貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型,確定控制單元與元件在不同維修方式下的可用度變化規(guī)律,通過重要度分析發(fā)現(xiàn)了可靠性設(shè)計中的薄弱環(huán)節(jié)。仿真分析表明:視情維修的引入使得控制單元與元件相對于完全維修與不完全維修具有更高的可用度;吸收狀態(tài)的引入可以預(yù)測退化狀態(tài)可修元件的可用度變化趨勢,為維修換件提供理論指導(dǎo)。
[Abstract]:In order to solve the problem that the traditional reliability analysis method is difficult to describe the dynamic characteristics of the system, this paper presents a method for modeling the availability of situational maintenance based on multi-state dynamic Bayesian network.Based on the definition of multi-state components, a condition based maintenance state transition model based on Markov model is constructed, and the absorption state is introduced.By constructing a multi-state dynamic Bayesian network model, the condition transition relations under the condition of no maintenance, complete maintenance, incomplete maintenance, condition dependent maintenance and absorption state are determined, and the conditional probability is assigned according to the series and parallel logic relations.Taking a control unit as an example, a dynamic fault tree model and a dynamic Bayesian network model are constructed to determine the regularity of the availability of control units and components under different maintenance modes. The weak links in reliability design are found through the importance analysis.Simulation analysis shows that the introduction of situational maintenance makes the control unit and component have higher availability compared with complete maintenance and incomplete maintenance, and the introduction of absorption state can predict the change trend of repairable element availability in degraded state.To provide theoretical guidance for maintenance and replacement.
【作者單位】： 海軍航空大學(xué)兵器科學(xué)與技術(shù)系;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(51605487) 中國博士后科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(2016M592965) 山東省自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(ZR2016FQ03)
【分類號】：TB114.3

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本文編號：1704417