本文選題：可靠性分析　切入點：概率安全評價　出處：《中國科學(xué)技術(shù)大學(xué)》2015年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：系統(tǒng)可靠性分析和安全評價的研究對我國核工業(yè)發(fā)展與國防安全事業(yè)等有著極其重要的意義,故障樹和事件樹建模與分析技術(shù)被公認(rèn)為是大型復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)的可靠性分析和安全性評價的重要方法之一。在故障樹和事件樹的建模與分析過程中,非邏輯處理、邊界條件集處理和共因失效分析是其中的關(guān)鍵環(huán)節(jié)和重要組成部分,其技術(shù)方法的改進(jìn)優(yōu)化不僅能夠在系統(tǒng)建模分析中減少建模過程的繁雜重復(fù)所帶來的時間耗費和模型錯漏,而且可以提高計算分析精度和減少計算資源消耗,因此本論文針對這些問題展開深入的探索和研究：(1)提出了一種基于德摩根展開改進(jìn)算法和邊界條件相結(jié)合的事件樹到故障樹的轉(zhuǎn)換建模算法,根據(jù)多邊界條件采用不同的展開建模方式對模型中的非邏輯進(jìn)行計算處理,通過多個國際標(biāo)準(zhǔn)例題的校核,驗證了算法的正確性和計算效率,比傳統(tǒng)的大鏈接轉(zhuǎn)換建模算法節(jié)省了8%-33%的計算時間；(2)提出了一種以多開關(guān)事件集為基礎(chǔ)的故障樹轉(zhuǎn)換頁重用算法,對故障樹的實際開關(guān)事件集進(jìn)行多重嵌套式的處理,解決了多邊界條件集事件樹分析的模型基本單元取值沖突問題,采用多個國際標(biāo)準(zhǔn)例題與秦山核電廠的實際模型進(jìn)行了測試和驗證,并與國際同類軟件RiskSpectrum對比,計算結(jié)果正確而且計算速度快7%-43%；(3)發(fā)展了一種支持非勻稱共因失效的共因結(jié)構(gòu)分解法,提高了多邊界條件集的事件樹分析和計算速度。此方法基于多重共因失效分解,并從傳統(tǒng)勻稱性假設(shè)中抽象出更為寬松合理的獨立失效拆分假設(shè)和共因影響效果勻稱性假設(shè),使得分解轉(zhuǎn)換后的共因組能夠使用傳統(tǒng)共因失效模型進(jìn)行計算,而且能支持多種部件類型和不同共因模型的非勻稱共因失效分析,將新方法與傳統(tǒng)的樂觀和保守的共因失效分析方法進(jìn)行了比較分析,驗證了新方法的正確性和有效性�；谏鲜鲅芯�,本論文在中國科學(xué)院核能安全技術(shù)研究所·FDS團(tuán)隊前期開發(fā)的可靠性和概率安全分析軟件RiskA的基礎(chǔ)上,對故障樹和事件樹的建模與分析模塊的相應(yīng)關(guān)鍵算法進(jìn)行了編程實現(xiàn)和應(yīng)用驗證。所發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵技術(shù)能夠快速對大型復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行更高效率和精度的故障樹和事件樹的建模與分析,促進(jìn)了故障樹和事件樹建模分析技術(shù)的進(jìn)一步發(fā)展及其在我國核能利用與國防安全等領(lǐng)域的廣泛應(yīng)用。
[Abstract]:The study of system reliability analysis and safety evaluation is of great significance to the development of nuclear industry and national defense security in China. Fault tree and event tree modeling and analysis techniques are recognized as one of the most important methods for reliability analysis and security evaluation of large-scale complex systems. Boundary condition set processing and common cause failure analysis are the key links and important components. The improvement and optimization of its technical method can not only reduce the time consumption and model error caused by the complicated duplication of modeling process in system modeling analysis. And it can improve the accuracy of calculation and reduce the consumption of computing resources. Therefore, in this paper, we deeply explore and study these problems. (1) an event tree to fault tree transformation modeling algorithm based on the improved de Morgan expansion algorithm and boundary conditions is proposed. According to the multi-boundary conditions, different expansion modeling methods are used to calculate and process the non-logic in the model. The correctness and efficiency of the algorithm are verified by the checking of several international standard examples. This paper proposes a fault tree conversion page reuse algorithm based on multi-switch event set, which can deal with the actual switch event set of fault tree in multiple nested way. The problem of model basic unit value conflict in event tree analysis of multi-boundary condition set is solved. Several international standard examples are used to test and verify the actual model of Qinshan Nuclear Power Plant, and it is compared with the international similar software RiskSpectrum. The result of calculation is correct and the calculation speed is 7 ~ 43) A common factor structure decomposition method supporting non-uniform common cause failure is developed, which improves the analysis and calculation speed of event tree of multi-boundary condition set. This method is based on multiple common factor failure decomposition. Furthermore, a more relaxed and reasonable hypothesis of independent failure resolution and homogenization of the effect of common cause is abstracted from the traditional homogenization hypothesis, so that the decomposed and converted common cause group can be calculated using the traditional common cause failure model. Moreover, the new method is compared with the traditional optimistic and conservative common cause failure analysis method, which can support the non-symmetrical common cause failure analysis of various component types and different common cause models, and the new method is compared with the traditional optimistic and conservative common cause failure analysis method. The validity and validity of the new method are verified. Based on the above research, this paper is based on the reliability and probabilistic safety analysis software RiskA developed by the FDS team of the Institute of Nuclear Safety Technology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. The corresponding key algorithms of fault tree and event tree modeling and analysis module are programmed and verified by application. The key technologies developed can quickly carry out more efficient and accurate fault trees and events for large-scale complex systems. Modeling and Analysis of piece Tree, It promotes the further development of fault tree and event tree modeling and analysis technology and its wide application in nuclear energy utilization and national defense security in China.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國科學(xué)技術(shù)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：TB114.3

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本文編號：1635628