基于多項式混沌展開的人員疏散時間不確定性研究
發(fā)布時間：2019-07-09 09:25
【摘要】：目前,建筑防火設計常用的兩種方法是“處方式”規(guī)范和性能化防火設計�！疤幏绞健狈阑鹪O計對建筑物的設計參數(shù)和各項指標都進行了較為詳細的規(guī)定,但缺乏一定的靈活性。由于火災發(fā)生和人員行為的不可預測性,建筑火災下的人員疏散時間呈現(xiàn)顯著的不確定性。性能化防火設計在處理火災發(fā)生和人員疏散的隨機性問題上,則主要采用安全系數(shù)或保守取值法。而安全系數(shù)的選取在較大程度上依賴于火災專家,其取值的可靠性有待于驗證。保守取值法通常根據(jù)最極端的情況對建筑物進行防火設計,這樣往往會造成建筑資源的浪費。針對上述問題,本文提出了基于多項式混沌展開的人員疏散時間不確定性分析方法以及在不確定性參數(shù)影響下人員疏散時間最優(yōu)出口參數(shù)取值的確定方法,主要研究工作與成果如下： 根據(jù)人員疏散過程和參數(shù)可控的難易程度,將人員疏散時間的相關參數(shù)分為不確定性參數(shù)和出口參數(shù)。與人員疏散相關的不確定性參數(shù)較多,如人員密度、人群組成和預動時間等。出口參數(shù)是指與建筑物出口相關的參數(shù),如出口寬度、出口間距、出口個數(shù)和出口位置等。 為降低人員疏散時間不確定性分析的計算時間成本,本文耦合人員疏散模型和多項式混沌展開法建立了人員疏散時間的不確定性分析方法。該方法與Monte Carlo模擬方法在計算精度上較為接近且計算時間成本較少。此外,采用本文提出的不確定性分析方法比較了預動時間為確定值和隨機變量情況下人員疏散時間的不確定性,結果表明所考慮的不確定性參數(shù)越多,安全系數(shù)并不一定越大。 為減少人員疏散時間參數(shù)敏感性分析的計算成本,本文耦合多項式混沌展開和方差分解法提出了人員疏散時間參數(shù)敏感性分析方法。基于人員疏散時間計算模型的一階多項式混沌展開給出了人員疏散時間參數(shù)的線性敏感度指標。由于人員疏散模型是高度非線性的,基于二階多項式混沌展開給出了人員疏散時間參數(shù)的非線性敏感度指標。研究結果表明：通過本文提出的敏感性分析方法與基于抽樣的敏感性分析方法所獲得的各參數(shù)對人員疏散時間影響的重要度排序是一致的,且本文提出的敏感性分析方法的計算時間成本較少。當出口寬度較小時,人員疏散時間對不確定參數(shù)的敏感性受出口寬度影響顯著。當人員密度較大時,人員疏散時間對出口參數(shù)的敏感性受人員密度影響較小。 為降低計算成本并保證建筑物的安全性,經(jīng)濟性和功能適用性,耦合人員疏散模型、多項式混沌展開法和兩階段嵌套式的Monte Carlo模擬建立了不確定性參數(shù)作用下人員疏散時間最優(yōu)出口參數(shù)的確定方法。以建筑內一單室防火分區(qū)為例,對人員疏散時間最優(yōu)的出口寬度、出口間距和出口位置進行研究。研究結果表明本文提出的耦合多項式混沌展開和兩階段嵌套式的Monte Carlo模擬技術使得在不確定參數(shù)影響下疏散出口參數(shù)優(yōu)化所需的計算成本顯著減少。隨著人員疏散時間取值可靠性的增加,人員疏散時間的最小值將顯著增加。對于人員疏散時間不同的取值可靠性,最小的出口寬度是顯著不同的。隨著出口寬度的增加,人員疏散時間的均值和標準差顯著下降。然而,當出口寬度足夠大的情況下,人員疏散時間的均值和標準差受出口寬度影響較小,可將其視為常數(shù)。當百人有效出口寬度在0.1～0.5m內設計時,出口寬度對安全系數(shù)的取值可靠性影響較小。此外,通過最大疏散距離最小化所確定的出口間距和出口位置往往不是最優(yōu)的。隨著人員疏散時間取值可靠性的增大,最優(yōu)的出口間距呈增大的趨勢,且最大疏散距離最小化所確定的出口位置與人員疏散時間最優(yōu)出口位置的偏離度逐漸增加。當出口間距較小時,安全系數(shù)的取值可靠性受出口間距影響較小；而當出口間距增大到某一值時,人員疏散時間一取值可靠性所對應的最小安全系數(shù)開始下降。另外,隨著出口位置與最大疏散距離最小化所確定出口位置偏離度的增加,人員疏散時間一取值可靠性下的最小安全系數(shù)將逐漸減少。
[Abstract]:At present, the two methods commonly used in the design of fire-proof design are the "the way of the place" specification and the performance-based fire-proof design. The design parameters and various indexes of the fire-proof design of the "the way of the place" are specified in more detail, but some flexibility is lacking. As a result of the unpredictability of the occurrence of the fire and the behavior of the personnel, the evacuation time of the personnel in the building fire presents significant uncertainty. The safety factor or conservative value method is used to deal with the randomness of fire and personnel evacuation. The choice of safety factor depends on the fire expert to a large extent, and the reliability of the safety factor is to be verified. The conservative value method is usually used for fire-proof design of buildings according to the most extreme cases, which often leads to the waste of construction resources. In view of the above problems, this paper presents a method for determining the time uncertainty of the personnel evacuation time based on the polynomial hybrid system and the method for determining the optimal exit parameters of the personnel under the influence of the uncertainty parameters. The main research work and results are as follows: According to the difficulty of the personnel evacuation process and the controllable parameters, the relevant parameters of the personnel evacuation time are divided into the uncertainty parameters and the export reference parameters. Number. There are more uncertainty parameters associated with the evacuation of personnel, such as the personnel density, the composition of the population, and the pre-motion time And the like. The outlet parameter refers to the parameters related to the outlet of the building, such as the outlet width, the outlet space, the number of outlets and the outlet position. In order to reduce the calculation time cost of the uncertainty analysis of the evacuation time of the personnel, this paper establishes the uncertainty of the personnel evacuation time by means of the personnel evacuation model and the polynomial hybrid expansion method. The method and the Monte Carlo simulation method are very close to the calculation precision and the calculation time is In addition, using the uncertainty analysis method presented in this paper, the uncertainty of the pre-moving time as the determination value and the evacuation time of the personnel in the case of random variables is compared. The results show that the more the uncertainty parameters are considered, the safety factor is not one. In order to reduce the cost of the sensitivity analysis of the time-parameter sensitivity of personnel evacuation, the coupling polynomial hybrid system and the variance decomposition method are used to make the personnel evacuation time parameter sensitive. The first order polynomial hybrid system based on the personnel evacuation time calculation model gives the linearity of the personnel evacuation time parameter Sensitivity index. Because the personnel evacuation model is highly nonlinear, the non-linearity of the personnel evacuation time parameter is given based on the second order polynomial hybrid system. The results show that the sensitivity analysis method presented in this paper is consistent with the importance of the parameters obtained by the sampling-based sensitivity analysis method to the evacuation time of the personnel, and the sensitivity analysis method proposed in this paper The cost is less. When the outlet width is small, the sensitivity of personnel evacuation time to uncertain parameters is controlled by the outlet width The influence of personnel's evacuation time on the export parameters is affected by the personnel's density when the density of the personnel is large In order to reduce the computational cost and to ensure the safety, economic and functional applicability of the building, the coupled personnel evacuation model, the polynomial hybrid expansion method and the two-stage nested Monte Carlo simulation establish the optimal exit for personnel evacuation time under the influence of the uncertainty parameters. The method of the determination of the parameters is to take a single-room fire-proof partition in the building as an example, and the exit width, the outlet space and the exit distance of the personnel with the optimal evacuation time are given. The research results show that the coupling polynomial hybrid system and the two-stage nested Monte Carlo simulation technology in this paper make it possible to optimize the parameters of the outlet parameters under the influence of uncertain parameters. The calculation cost is significantly reduced. With the increase of the reliability of the evacuation time of the personnel, the personnel evacuation time is the most important. The small value will increase significantly. For personnel evacuation time, the value is reliable and the minimum outlet width The degree is significantly different. With the increase of the exit width, the mean value of the person's evacuation time and the standard deviation is significantly reduced. however, when the exit width is large enough, the mean and standard deviation of the person's evacuation time are less affected by the exit width, It can be regarded as a constant. When the effective exit width of a hundred people is designed in the range of 0.1 to 0.5m, the value of the outlet width on the safety factor The reliability impact is small. In addition, the determined exit spacing and outlet location are minimized by minimizing the maximum evacuation distance It is often not optimal. With the increase of the reliability of the evacuation time of the personnel, the optimal exit distance is increased, and the maximum evacuation distance is the optimal exit position of the exit position and the personnel evacuation time. The deviation degree is gradually increased. When the outlet interval is small, the reliability of the safety factor is less influenced by the outlet spacing; and when the outlet interval is increased to a certain value, the minimum safety corresponding to the value reliability of the personnel evacuation time The total coefficient starts to decrease. In addition, as the exit position and the maximum evacuation distance minimize the deviation of the exit position, the minimum safety under the reliability of the personnel evacuation time
【學位授予單位】：中國科學技術大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TU998.1
本文編號：2512056
[Abstract]:At present, the two methods commonly used in the design of fire-proof design are the "the way of the place" specification and the performance-based fire-proof design. The design parameters and various indexes of the fire-proof design of the "the way of the place" are specified in more detail, but some flexibility is lacking. As a result of the unpredictability of the occurrence of the fire and the behavior of the personnel, the evacuation time of the personnel in the building fire presents significant uncertainty. The safety factor or conservative value method is used to deal with the randomness of fire and personnel evacuation. The choice of safety factor depends on the fire expert to a large extent, and the reliability of the safety factor is to be verified. The conservative value method is usually used for fire-proof design of buildings according to the most extreme cases, which often leads to the waste of construction resources. In view of the above problems, this paper presents a method for determining the time uncertainty of the personnel evacuation time based on the polynomial hybrid system and the method for determining the optimal exit parameters of the personnel under the influence of the uncertainty parameters. The main research work and results are as follows: According to the difficulty of the personnel evacuation process and the controllable parameters, the relevant parameters of the personnel evacuation time are divided into the uncertainty parameters and the export reference parameters. Number. There are more uncertainty parameters associated with the evacuation of personnel, such as the personnel density, the composition of the population, and the pre-motion time And the like. The outlet parameter refers to the parameters related to the outlet of the building, such as the outlet width, the outlet space, the number of outlets and the outlet position. In order to reduce the calculation time cost of the uncertainty analysis of the evacuation time of the personnel, this paper establishes the uncertainty of the personnel evacuation time by means of the personnel evacuation model and the polynomial hybrid expansion method. The method and the Monte Carlo simulation method are very close to the calculation precision and the calculation time is In addition, using the uncertainty analysis method presented in this paper, the uncertainty of the pre-moving time as the determination value and the evacuation time of the personnel in the case of random variables is compared. The results show that the more the uncertainty parameters are considered, the safety factor is not one. In order to reduce the cost of the sensitivity analysis of the time-parameter sensitivity of personnel evacuation, the coupling polynomial hybrid system and the variance decomposition method are used to make the personnel evacuation time parameter sensitive. The first order polynomial hybrid system based on the personnel evacuation time calculation model gives the linearity of the personnel evacuation time parameter Sensitivity index. Because the personnel evacuation model is highly nonlinear, the non-linearity of the personnel evacuation time parameter is given based on the second order polynomial hybrid system. The results show that the sensitivity analysis method presented in this paper is consistent with the importance of the parameters obtained by the sampling-based sensitivity analysis method to the evacuation time of the personnel, and the sensitivity analysis method proposed in this paper The cost is less. When the outlet width is small, the sensitivity of personnel evacuation time to uncertain parameters is controlled by the outlet width The influence of personnel's evacuation time on the export parameters is affected by the personnel's density when the density of the personnel is large In order to reduce the computational cost and to ensure the safety, economic and functional applicability of the building, the coupled personnel evacuation model, the polynomial hybrid expansion method and the two-stage nested Monte Carlo simulation establish the optimal exit for personnel evacuation time under the influence of the uncertainty parameters. The method of the determination of the parameters is to take a single-room fire-proof partition in the building as an example, and the exit width, the outlet space and the exit distance of the personnel with the optimal evacuation time are given. The research results show that the coupling polynomial hybrid system and the two-stage nested Monte Carlo simulation technology in this paper make it possible to optimize the parameters of the outlet parameters under the influence of uncertain parameters. The calculation cost is significantly reduced. With the increase of the reliability of the evacuation time of the personnel, the personnel evacuation time is the most important. The small value will increase significantly. For personnel evacuation time, the value is reliable and the minimum outlet width The degree is significantly different. With the increase of the exit width, the mean value of the person's evacuation time and the standard deviation is significantly reduced. however, when the exit width is large enough, the mean and standard deviation of the person's evacuation time are less affected by the exit width, It can be regarded as a constant. When the effective exit width of a hundred people is designed in the range of 0.1 to 0.5m, the value of the outlet width on the safety factor The reliability impact is small. In addition, the determined exit spacing and outlet location are minimized by minimizing the maximum evacuation distance It is often not optimal. With the increase of the reliability of the evacuation time of the personnel, the optimal exit distance is increased, and the maximum evacuation distance is the optimal exit position of the exit position and the personnel evacuation time. The deviation degree is gradually increased. When the outlet interval is small, the reliability of the safety factor is less influenced by the outlet spacing; and when the outlet interval is increased to a certain value, the minimum safety corresponding to the value reliability of the personnel evacuation time The total coefficient starts to decrease. In addition, as the exit position and the maximum evacuation distance minimize the deviation of the exit position, the minimum safety under the reliability of the personnel evacuation time
【學位授予單位】：中國科學技術大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TU998.1
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