【摘要】：中國(guó)在1999年已進(jìn)入了國(guó)際公認(rèn)的老齡化社會(huì),是目前老年人口最多的國(guó)家。根據(jù)國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局“五普”和“六普”資料,2000-2010年我國(guó)人口老齡化程度加速發(fā)展,同時(shí)老年人口分布具有明顯的空間分異特征。人口老齡化帶來(lái)的城鄉(xiāng)社會(huì)結(jié)構(gòu)變化及其對(duì)城鄉(xiāng)發(fā)展的影響是當(dāng)前我國(guó)新型城鎮(zhèn)發(fā)展過(guò)程中急需研究、回應(yīng)的重要問(wèn)題。如何根據(jù)各地老年人口的增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)、空間分布特征以及發(fā)展演變規(guī)律等實(shí)際情況,針對(duì)性的規(guī)劃布局養(yǎng)老服務(wù)設(shè)施也是當(dāng)前我國(guó)城鄉(xiāng)規(guī)劃領(lǐng)域的熱點(diǎn)問(wèn)題。 近年來(lái)杭州市的老年人口規(guī)�？焖偬岣�,老年人口分布呈現(xiàn)出明顯的空間差異。因此,本文以杭州市為實(shí)證,研究2000-2010年期間杭州市區(qū)老年人口規(guī)模的增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)及老年人口空間分布的演化規(guī)律,在此基礎(chǔ)上提出針對(duì)杭州市實(shí)際的養(yǎng)老設(shè)施規(guī)劃布局的對(duì)策建議。 首先,以“五普”和“六普”數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ),通過(guò)社會(huì)統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)軟件SPSS和地理信息系統(tǒng)軟件GIS的應(yīng)用,實(shí)現(xiàn)老年人口分布的空間化、圖形化,直觀地反映杭州市老年人口的分布特征。 其次,通過(guò)老年人口密度的空間分布的分析,揭示老年人口分布的空間演化規(guī)律。借助人口密度研究的經(jīng)典理論模型,對(duì)老年人口密度分布進(jìn)行模型擬合,得出符合杭州市老年人口變化規(guī)律的具體模型。根據(jù)模型的參數(shù)變化,進(jìn)一步分析杭州市老年人口空間分布的整體特征與演變規(guī)律。 再次,在分析得出杭州市老年人口呈現(xiàn)圈層式分布規(guī)律的基礎(chǔ)上,選擇典型的片區(qū),開展老年人口結(jié)構(gòu)、年齡中位數(shù)、家庭撫養(yǎng)比等的深入分析,以揭示不同圈層的具體養(yǎng)老需求特征。 最后,根據(jù)上述研究結(jié)論,提出適應(yīng)杭州市人口老齡化發(fā)展實(shí)際的養(yǎng)老設(shè)施規(guī)劃布局策略的基本建議。
[Abstract]:China has entered an internationally recognized aging society in 1999 and now has the largest population of the elderly. According to the data of the "Fifth and Sixth Populations" of the National Bureau of Statistics, the degree of population aging in China accelerated from 2000 to 2010, and the distribution of the elderly population has obvious spatial differentiation characteristics. Structural changes and their impact on urban and rural development are important issues that need to be studied and answered urgently in the process of the development of new cities and towns in our country. Hot issues in the domain.
In recent years, the scale of the elderly population in Hangzhou has increased rapidly, and the distribution of the elderly population shows obvious spatial differences. Therefore, this paper takes Hangzhou as an example to study the growth trend of the elderly population size and the evolution law of the spatial distribution of the elderly population in Hangzhou during 2000-2010. On this basis, it puts forward the actual pension in Hangzhou. Suggestions for the layout of facilities.
Firstly, based on the data of the Fifth and Sixth Census, the spatial and graphic distribution of the elderly population in Hangzhou is realized through the application of social statistics software SPSS and geographic information system software GIS.
Secondly, through the analysis of the spatial distribution of the population density of the elderly, the spatial evolution law of the population distribution of the elderly is revealed. With the help of the classical theoretical model of the population density study, the distribution of the population density of the elderly is modeled and fitted, and a concrete model which accords with the change law of the elderly population in Hangzhou is obtained. The overall characteristics and evolution of the spatial distribution of elderly population in Hangzhou.
Thirdly, on the basis of the analysis of the circular distribution of the elderly population in Hangzhou, the typical districts are selected to carry out in-depth analysis of the elderly population structure, median age, family support ratio and so on, in order to reveal the specific characteristics of different circles of the elderly demand.
Finally, according to the above conclusions, the paper puts forward some basic suggestions on the planning and layout strategy of old-age facilities to adapt to the actual development of population aging in Hangzhou.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：D669.6;TU984

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本文編號(hào)：2227088