【摘要】：IPD (Integrated Project Delivery,綜合項目交付)模式是一種能夠有效節(jié)約建筑成本的交付方式。并且項目規(guī)模越大,能夠節(jié)約的項目成本越多。各參與方組成IPD團隊,集成了各方的專業(yè)人才、系統(tǒng)的知識和經(jīng)驗,通過協(xié)同合作的工作方式來達到減少建筑浪費、降低建設成本、減少返工、縮短工期、提升建筑物對業(yè)主的價值的目的。但是,由于各參與方在風險分擔之間和收益分配上面的要求不同,也沒有現(xiàn)行的一種可以借鑒的分配方案。各參與方就此問題的談判協(xié)商僵持不下,或者介于項目建設的緊迫性而勉強答應不平等的條件。一旦出現(xiàn)不可預估的風險或是承諾不能兌現(xiàn)的情況,IPD團隊將面對分崩瓦解的局面,以至于目前在國內(nèi)只有極少數(shù)的IPD項目能夠正常的完成。IPD模式在中國的發(fā)展成熟,急需建立一套合理的,對各參與方皆公平的風險分擔方案,來提高各參與方之間合作的效率,真正實現(xiàn)IPD模式能夠降低項目成本的優(yōu)勢。 首先,本文通過歸納國內(nèi)外文獻及案例的方式,識別出了36個風險因素,包括16項宏觀層風險,16項中觀層風險和4項微觀層風險。針對這些風險建立風險因素集,同時根據(jù)各參與方對風險控制管理能力的不同,劃分了各自的責任風險管理分配表。最后根據(jù)IPD模式運行機制的特點,設計了基于多次談判協(xié)商的“四個階段”的風險分擔流程。 其次,從IPD風險分擔的“兩個目標”出發(fā),為了達成各參與方滿意的風險共擔比例的目標,綜合運用了層次分析法和熵權法計構建出分配權重的計算模型,同時考慮到各參與方的合作度,設計了修正系數(shù)的計算方案。 再次,考慮到風險因素的不確定性和各參與方的風險偏好和承擔風險的能力,在隨機合作博弈理論的基礎上,構建了各參與方風險轉移的最優(yōu)化模型,并對模型進行了求解和分析。同時計算出針對某一風險,各參與方需要補償或是擔保的系數(shù)。這樣不僅實現(xiàn)了項目整體風險最小的目標,同時使風險從規(guī)避方轉移到了風險偏好方,實現(xiàn)了各參與方的合作效率。 最后,介于我國IPD項目的稀少性,通過案例仿真分析,得到了各參與方在此項目的風險分擔權重,同時也驗證了隨機合作博弈理論構建的風險轉移模型能夠有效的降低項目的整體風險。 研究的IPD項模式的理論和風險分擔的方法,能夠在工程實踐中為各參與方如何進行責任風險分配提供參考,為確定合理的風險分擔比例提供決策支持。
[Abstract]:IPD (Integrated Project Delivery, integrated project delivery mode is a delivery mode which can save construction cost effectively. And the larger the project scale, the more cost savings can be achieved. The participants form a IPD team that integrates the expertise, knowledge and experience of all parties. By working in a collaborative way to reduce construction waste, reduce construction costs, reduce rework, shorten the construction period, The purpose of raising the value of the building to the owner. However, due to the different requirements of the participants in risk sharing and income distribution, there is no current allocation scheme that can be used for reference. The participants are locked in negotiations on this issue, or grudgingly agree to unequal conditions because of the urgency of the project. Once there are unpredictable risks or promises that cannot be fulfilled, the IPD team will be faced with a situation of collapse and disintegration, so that only a few IPD projects in China can be completed normally. The development of the IPD model in China has matured. It is urgent to establish a reasonable risk-sharing scheme which is fair to all participants so as to improve the efficiency of cooperation among the participants and realize the advantages of IPD model which can reduce the project cost. Firstly, 36 risk factors are identified by summing up domestic and foreign literatures and cases, including 16 macro-layer risks, 16 meso-layer risks and 4 micro-layer risks. In view of these risks, the risk factor set is established, and the allocation table of responsibility risk management is divided according to the different ability of each party to control risk management. Finally, according to the characteristics of IPD operation mechanism, the "four stages" risk sharing process based on multiple negotiation and negotiation is designed. Secondly, starting from the "two objectives" of IPD risk sharing, in order to achieve the goal of the risk-sharing ratio satisfied by all the participants, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the entropy weight method are used to construct the calculation model of the distribution weight. At the same time, considering the cooperation degree of the participants, the calculation scheme of the correction coefficient is designed. Thirdly, considering the uncertainty of risk factors, the risk preference of each participant and the ability to bear risks, the optimal model of risk transfer of each participant is constructed on the basis of stochastic cooperative game theory. The model is solved and analyzed. At the same time, the coefficient of compensation or guarantee is calculated for a certain risk. This not only realizes the goal of minimum overall risk of the project, but also transfers the risk from evading party to risk preference party, and realizes the cooperation efficiency of each participant. Finally, in view of the scarcity of IPD project in our country, through the simulation analysis of the case, we get the risk sharing weight of each participant in this project. At the same time, it also verifies that the risk transfer model constructed by stochastic cooperative game theory can effectively reduce the overall risk of the project. The theory of IPD item model and the method of risk sharing can provide reference for each participant how to distribute the responsibility risk in engineering practice and provide decision support for determining the reasonable risk sharing ratio.
【學位授予單位】：西南石油大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TU71

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