工程量清單模式下工程造價的動態(tài)分析與預測研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-07-29 17:33
【摘要】：隨著《建設工程工程量清單計價規(guī)范》(GB50500-2013)的出臺,工程量清單計價模式進入了全過程精細化管理的新階段。但是,由于我國建設工程一般具有工程量大、建設周期長等特點,工程造價構成要素容易受到社會環(huán)境、技術水平、經濟條件和氣候環(huán)境等多方面因素的影響,而出現價格波動幅度較大的問題,因而加大了承包商對成本的控制和業(yè)主對投資的控制難度。本文著重于對工程造價的主要影響因素進行動態(tài)分析,并得出合理的造價預測指標及預測公式,對于業(yè)主、承包商在建設項目實施階段有效地控制工程造價具有重要的現實意義。本文首先回顧了國內外工程造價計價模式的發(fā)展歷程,對工程量清單計價與定額計價的區(qū)別與聯(lián)系進行深入的分析和對比,提出在我國全面推行工程量清單計價的必要性,工程量清單計價能夠真正實現我國市場形成價格的工程造價改革目標,有利于建筑市場的健康發(fā)展；其次敘述了《建設工程工程量清單計價規(guī)范》(GB50500-2013)相關內容及清單計價的編制程序與各項費用的組成；在計算沈陽市某高層住宅的工程造價的基礎上,利用價格調整公式系統(tǒng)地分析了影響造價的各項因素,研究得出人工費和材料費是影響工程造價的主要因素,鋼材和水泥是影響材料費的主要因素；為了使業(yè)主和承包商對影響造價的主要因素能有合理的預測和造價控制,最后本文從中國歷年價格指數的走勢分析出發(fā),并考慮工程造價的主要影響因素,利用近十幾年的中國建筑業(yè)的價格指數建立了人工費、材料費、鋼材和水泥的灰色GM(1,1)預測模型,通過了精度檢驗最終得到科學可靠的預測造價的指標及公式,為各參與主體對實際工程的工程造價進行合理控制提供依據。
[Abstract]:With the coming out of GB50500-2013, the pricing mode of bill of quantities has entered a new stage of fine management in the whole process. However, because of the characteristics of large amount of construction and long construction period in China, the elements of construction cost are easily affected by social environment, technical level, economic conditions and climate environment, etc. However, it is difficult for the contractor to control the cost and the owner to control the investment because of the large price fluctuation. This paper focuses on the dynamic analysis of the main influencing factors of the project cost, and obtains the reasonable cost prediction index and prediction formula. It is of great practical significance for contractors to control the project cost effectively in the construction project implementation stage. This paper first reviews the development course of engineering cost valuation mode at home and abroad, analyzes and compares the differences and connections between bill of quantities valuation and quota valuation, and points out the necessity of carrying out bill of quantities pricing in China. Bill of quantities valuation can truly realize the goal of engineering cost reform, which is conducive to the healthy development of the construction market. Secondly, it describes the related contents of GB50500-2013, the compilation procedure of list valuation and the composition of various expenses, on the basis of calculating the engineering cost of a high-rise residential building in Shenyang. The factors influencing the cost are analyzed systematically by using the price adjustment formula. It is concluded that the labor cost and the material cost are the main factors affecting the construction cost, and the steel and cement are the main factors affecting the material cost. In order to make the owner and contractor have reasonable forecast and cost control to the main factors that affect the cost, this paper analyzes the trend of the price index in the past years in China, and considers the main influencing factors of the project cost. Using the price index of Chinese construction industry in the past ten years, the grey GM (1 ~ 1) forecasting model of labor cost, material cost, steel and cement is established, and the index and formula of scientific and reliable prediction cost are obtained through precision test. It provides the basis for the participants to control the actual project cost reasonably.
【學位授予單位】：東北大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TU723.3
，
本文編號：2153474
[Abstract]:With the coming out of GB50500-2013, the pricing mode of bill of quantities has entered a new stage of fine management in the whole process. However, because of the characteristics of large amount of construction and long construction period in China, the elements of construction cost are easily affected by social environment, technical level, economic conditions and climate environment, etc. However, it is difficult for the contractor to control the cost and the owner to control the investment because of the large price fluctuation. This paper focuses on the dynamic analysis of the main influencing factors of the project cost, and obtains the reasonable cost prediction index and prediction formula. It is of great practical significance for contractors to control the project cost effectively in the construction project implementation stage. This paper first reviews the development course of engineering cost valuation mode at home and abroad, analyzes and compares the differences and connections between bill of quantities valuation and quota valuation, and points out the necessity of carrying out bill of quantities pricing in China. Bill of quantities valuation can truly realize the goal of engineering cost reform, which is conducive to the healthy development of the construction market. Secondly, it describes the related contents of GB50500-2013, the compilation procedure of list valuation and the composition of various expenses, on the basis of calculating the engineering cost of a high-rise residential building in Shenyang. The factors influencing the cost are analyzed systematically by using the price adjustment formula. It is concluded that the labor cost and the material cost are the main factors affecting the construction cost, and the steel and cement are the main factors affecting the material cost. In order to make the owner and contractor have reasonable forecast and cost control to the main factors that affect the cost, this paper analyzes the trend of the price index in the past years in China, and considers the main influencing factors of the project cost. Using the price index of Chinese construction industry in the past ten years, the grey GM (1 ~ 1) forecasting model of labor cost, material cost, steel and cement is established, and the index and formula of scientific and reliable prediction cost are obtained through precision test. It provides the basis for the participants to control the actual project cost reasonably.
【學位授予單位】：東北大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TU723.3
，
本文編號：2153474
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