本文選題：防災(zāi)避難場所 + 規(guī)劃技術(shù)指標(biāo)�。� 參考：《天津大學(xué)》2014年博士論文

【摘要】：隨著避難場所對城鄉(xiāng)安全和可持續(xù)發(fā)展的重要性被廣泛認(rèn)可,避難場所建設(shè)正由示范、試點轉(zhuǎn)向大面積鋪開建設(shè),然而,避難場所規(guī)劃還沒有形成成熟的理論框架和技術(shù)方法。縣域城鎮(zhèn)避難場所規(guī)劃指標(biāo),避難場所選址評價、布局優(yōu)化與責(zé)任區(qū)劃分方法等重點和難點問題還沒有完全解決,這已成為推進避難場所建設(shè)的瓶頸。本文利用防災(zāi)減災(zāi)工程及防護工程、公共設(shè)施選址、地理信息系統(tǒng)、決策支持系統(tǒng)和應(yīng)急管理等學(xué)科的基礎(chǔ)理論與方法,對這些問題開展了系統(tǒng)深入的分析研究,取得了一些具有科學(xué)意義和應(yīng)用價值的研究成果。我國避難場所規(guī)劃標(biāo)準(zhǔn)基本上是針對大中城市制定的,縣域城鎮(zhèn)避難場所規(guī)劃的理論基礎(chǔ)非常薄弱,有限的研究成果所提出的規(guī)劃指標(biāo)適用性較差。本文提出以地震災(zāi)害為主要防御災(zāi)種的縣域城鎮(zhèn)避難場所分類,各類避難場所的功能、規(guī)模、有效避難面積、服務(wù)范圍和應(yīng)急設(shè)施配置等規(guī)劃技術(shù)指標(biāo)和要求,以及應(yīng)急道路的分類和有效寬度的技術(shù)指標(biāo)。利用該技術(shù)指標(biāo)分別規(guī)劃了一個鄉(xiāng)和縣城鎮(zhèn)的避難場所系統(tǒng),規(guī)劃結(jié)果的分析表明,技術(shù)指標(biāo)的適用性較好。該技術(shù)指標(biāo)初步形成了縣域城鎮(zhèn)避難場所規(guī)劃技術(shù)指標(biāo)體系框架,相關(guān)研究成果已編入國家標(biāo)準(zhǔn)《防災(zāi)避難場所設(shè)計規(guī)范》(報批稿)。傳統(tǒng)的評價方法難以簡單、定量的評價候選避難場所條件的優(yōu)劣。為解決候選場所選址適宜性評價問題,本文以城鎮(zhèn)避難場所系統(tǒng)規(guī)劃的關(guān)鍵——固定避難場所為研究對象,構(gòu)建了選址適宜性評價指標(biāo)體系并給出了評價標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。借助TOPSIS方法中理想點的概念,提出了基于理想點已知部分屬性權(quán)重信息的選址適宜性評價模型和求解方法。以各方案與負(fù)理想點的加權(quán)偏差再等權(quán)集結(jié)的偏差最小為目標(biāo),屬性權(quán)重的部分信息為約束條件,求取指標(biāo)權(quán)重。通過與現(xiàn)有模型的算例比較,該模型符合規(guī)劃的實際情況,遵循悲觀準(zhǔn)則確定權(quán)重降低了決策風(fēng)險,且模型求解簡單。該方法不但可以評價固定避難場所優(yōu)劣和選擇中心避難場所,也可以為改造、完善避難場所提供參考�，F(xiàn)有的避難場所布局優(yōu)化與責(zé)任區(qū)劃分模型存在目標(biāo)過多造成求解困難,對約束條件考慮不足和責(zé)任區(qū)劃分不合理等問題。為了解決“用最低的成本在哪里,建設(shè)多少避難場所”的問題,本文提出了基于改進集合覆蓋模型與改進P-中值模型相結(jié)合的城鎮(zhèn)固定避難場所布局優(yōu)化與責(zé)任區(qū)劃分模型及求解方法。以覆蓋所有需求區(qū)的場所數(shù)量最少和需求區(qū)到選定場所疏散距離之和最小為目標(biāo),全面考慮了現(xiàn)行標(biāo)準(zhǔn)和實際規(guī)劃的約束條件。利用軟件編程,分步求取避難場所的數(shù)量、位置和選定場所責(zé)任區(qū)范圍。通過與現(xiàn)有模型的算例比較,該模型簡單直觀,適用范圍廣,求解效率高,對責(zé)任區(qū)的劃分合理,提高了避難場所系統(tǒng)的應(yīng)急疏散效率。同時實現(xiàn)選址評價、布局優(yōu)化和責(zé)任區(qū)劃分是避難場所規(guī)劃的難題之一,目前還沒有一種有效的解決方法。利用本文提出的選址適宜性評價指標(biāo)體系和評價標(biāo)準(zhǔn),建立了基于目標(biāo)規(guī)劃的選址評價、布局優(yōu)化和責(zé)任區(qū)劃分的綜合模型,利用改進粒子群算法解決了難以在多項式內(nèi)求得最優(yōu)解的問題。通過與現(xiàn)有模型的算例比較,該模型簡化了規(guī)劃程序,適用范圍廣,所選定場所的適宜性好。該方法為城鎮(zhèn)固定避難場所選址評價、布局優(yōu)化與責(zé)任區(qū)劃分及其求解問題給出了一攬子的解決方案�，F(xiàn)有的避難場所規(guī)劃決策支持系統(tǒng),還沒有實現(xiàn)數(shù)學(xué)模型和算法與GIS空間數(shù)據(jù)支持功能的有效融合。本文以ArcGIS10為開發(fā)平臺,基于本文提出的規(guī)劃模型和算法,運用C#程序語言設(shè)計并開發(fā)了行業(yè)內(nèi)通用的基于GIS的避難場所規(guī)劃決策支持系統(tǒng)。該系統(tǒng)實現(xiàn)了防災(zāi)避難信息存儲、查詢和修改,候選避難場所篩選,避難場所評價、優(yōu)化與責(zé)任區(qū)劃分,以及規(guī)劃結(jié)果的可視化等功能。系統(tǒng)將GIS空間分析功能與避難場所規(guī)劃模型和求解算法有效耦合,借助GIS技術(shù)提高了大規(guī)模數(shù)據(jù)的處理能力和模型求解質(zhì)量,為避難場所規(guī)劃提供了可靠的決策支持平臺。以遷安市(縣級市)為例,系統(tǒng)的應(yīng)用了本文規(guī)劃技術(shù)指標(biāo)、規(guī)劃方法和決策支持系統(tǒng),提出了遷安市避難場所系統(tǒng)的規(guī)劃方案。驗證了本文技術(shù)指標(biāo)和規(guī)劃方法的適用性,同時也為縣域城鎮(zhèn)避難場所規(guī)劃提供了示范實例。
[Abstract]:As the importance of refuge places to urban and rural security and sustainable development is widely recognized, the construction of refuge places is being demonstrated by demonstration, and pilot projects have turned to large areas of construction. However, there is no mature theoretical framework and technical methods for the planning of refuge places. The key and difficult problems of the division of the responsibility area have not been fully solved. This has become the bottleneck of the construction of the refuge place. This paper has carried out a systematic study of these problems by using the basic theories and methods of disaster prevention and mitigation engineering and protection engineering, public facility location, geographic information system, decision support system and emergency management. Some research results with scientific significance and application value have been obtained. The planning standard of China's refuge place is basically formulated for large and middle cities. The theoretical foundation of the planning of the town shelter is very weak, and the limited research results are not applicable. This paper puts forward the earthquake disaster. The classification of the urban refuge places in the county towns, the function, the scale, the effective refuge area, the service scope and the emergency facilities allocation, as well as the classification of the emergency roads and the technical indexes of the effective width, are used to plan the asylum of a town and town in a township and county, respectively. The analysis of the site system and the results of the planning shows that the technical index is well applicable. The technical index has initially formed the framework of the technical index system for the planning of the county town shelters, and the relevant research results have been incorporated into the national standard < disaster prevention and refuge site design specification >. In order to solve the problem of the condition of the difficult place, in order to solve the problem of the suitability evaluation of the candidate site selection, this paper constructs the evaluation index system of the location suitability evaluation and gives the evaluation standard, based on the concept of ideal point in the TOPSIS method, which is based on the ideal point, and puts forward the idea of the ideal point, which is based on the ideal point. The location suitability evaluation model and solution method of partial attribute weight information are aimed at the minimum deviation of weight deviation of each scheme and negative ideal point, and the partial information of the attribute weight is a constraint condition, and the index weight is obtained. By comparing with the existing models, the model conforms to the actual situation of the planning and follows the tragedy. This method can not only evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of the fixed refuge places and select the center refuge places, but also provide reference for the reconstruction and the refuge places. In order to solve the problem of "where to use the minimum cost and how to build a number of refuge places", this paper puts forward the layout optimization of the fixed refuge and the division of the responsibility area and the solution method based on the improved set cover model and the improved P- median model. The minimum number of places in all demand areas and the minimum sum of the evacuation distance from the demand area to the selected place are the goal. The constraints of the current standard and the actual planning are taken into consideration. The number, position and area of the selected place are calculated step by step by software programming. The model is simplified by comparison with the existing model. The single intuition, wide application range, high efficiency, reasonable division of the responsibility area and improved emergency evacuation efficiency of the refuge place system. At the same time, location evaluation, layout optimization and division of responsibility area are one of the difficult problems in the planning of refuge places. At present, there is no effective solution. The standard system and evaluation standard have established a comprehensive model based on the location evaluation of the target planning, the layout optimization and the division of the responsibility area. By using the improved particle swarm optimization algorithm, the problem which is difficult to obtain the optimal solution in the polynomial is solved. By comparing with the existing models, the model simplifies the program, has a wide range of application and the selected place. The method provides a package solution for the location evaluation of the fixed refuge sites in cities and towns, the layout optimization and the division of the responsibility area and the solving problems. The existing decision-making support system for the planning of the refuge places has not yet realized the effective fusion of the mathematical model and the algorithm and the GIS spatial data support function. This paper is based on the development of ArcGIS10. The platform, based on the planning model and algorithm proposed in this paper, designs and develops a general GIS based planning decision support system in the industry based on C# programming language. The system realizes the information storage, query and modification of disaster prevention and asylum, the selection of candidate refuge sites, the evaluation of the refuge places, the optimization and the division of the responsibility area, and the planning node. The system combines the function of GIS spatial analysis with the planning model and solving algorithm of the refuge place, and improves the processing ability of large-scale data and the quality of the model solution with the help of GIS technology. It provides a reliable decision support platform for the planning of the refuge place. The system is used in this paper for example in Qian'an (county-level city). Planning technical index, planning method and decision support system, the planning scheme of Qian'an refuge place system is put forward. The applicability of the technical index and planning method is verified. At the same time, a demonstration example is provided for the planning of the county town shelters.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TU984.116
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本文編號：2116841