本文選題：魯棒性項(xiàng)目調(diào)度 + 質(zhì)量魯棒性　； 參考：《華中科技大學(xué)》2014年博士論文

【摘要】：由于市場(chǎng)環(huán)境快速變化,項(xiàng)目特別是大型工程項(xiàng)目所涉及的不確定性因素日益增多,使越來(lái)越多的項(xiàng)目出現(xiàn)問(wèn)題,如費(fèi)用超支、超出工期甚至中途夭折等。與此同時(shí),現(xiàn)代項(xiàng)目管理又要求周期更短、準(zhǔn)時(shí)完工率更高、成本更低。在這種情況下,應(yīng)對(duì)復(fù)雜環(huán)境中出現(xiàn)的各種不確定因素,保證項(xiàng)目按計(jì)劃按時(shí)完工而形成的魯棒性項(xiàng)目調(diào)度,引起了企業(yè)界和學(xué)術(shù)界的廣泛關(guān)注,成為項(xiàng)目管理領(lǐng)域理論研究的熱點(diǎn)。時(shí)間緩沖技術(shù)是建立魯棒性項(xiàng)目調(diào)度計(jì)劃的主要方法,主要有關(guān)鍵鏈集中緩沖方法和分散緩沖方法。對(duì)這兩種緩沖方法進(jìn)行研究,建立合理的魯棒性計(jì)劃,成為該領(lǐng)域的重點(diǎn)問(wèn)題。本文綜合應(yīng)用雙目標(biāo)優(yōu)化、啟發(fā)式算法及系統(tǒng)仿真等方法,對(duì)二種緩沖的適用環(huán)境及其相應(yīng)的魯棒性項(xiàng)目調(diào)度計(jì)劃進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)深入的研究,主要研究工作如下： 首先,綜合考慮項(xiàng)目執(zhí)行環(huán)境中不確性因素,如活動(dòng)時(shí)間確定性程度、項(xiàng)目交貨期限,按時(shí)完工重要性等,分別運(yùn)用集中緩沖和STC分散緩沖方法,制定魯棒性項(xiàng)目調(diào)度計(jì)劃,在仿真環(huán)境下執(zhí)行該計(jì)劃,對(duì)比二種緩沖方法的魯棒性績(jī)效指標(biāo)。結(jié)果表明：分散緩沖法具有更好的解魯棒性；當(dāng)活動(dòng)時(shí)間的不確定性程度較大時(shí),集中緩沖法的質(zhì)量魯棒性較好；當(dāng)項(xiàng)目工期較緊的情況下,分散緩沖法具有更好的魯棒性。 然后,針對(duì)不同的項(xiàng)目網(wǎng)絡(luò)特征,研究二種緩沖方法的適用性。綜合考慮項(xiàng)目規(guī)模、網(wǎng)絡(luò)復(fù)雜度等因素,生成不同的項(xiàng)目實(shí)例,并利用兩種緩沖方法分別制定魯棒性項(xiàng)目調(diào)度計(jì)劃,模擬不確定環(huán)境下項(xiàng)目計(jì)劃的執(zhí)行。仿真結(jié)果表明：當(dāng)活動(dòng)時(shí)間不確定程度較小時(shí),在小規(guī)模簡(jiǎn)單的項(xiàng)目中,分散緩沖魯棒性優(yōu)于集中緩沖,這時(shí)優(yōu)先選擇分散緩沖法制定魯棒性項(xiàng)目調(diào)度計(jì)劃。當(dāng)項(xiàng)目規(guī)模較大且網(wǎng)絡(luò)復(fù)雜時(shí),或在項(xiàng)目不確性程度較大時(shí),集中緩沖的質(zhì)量魯棒性始終優(yōu)于分散緩沖,這時(shí)應(yīng)優(yōu)先選擇集中緩沖法。 接著研究了雙目標(biāo)魯棒性項(xiàng)目調(diào)度算法。為使項(xiàng)目既保證按時(shí)完工又能按計(jì)劃執(zhí)行,同時(shí)考慮解魯棒性和質(zhì)量魯棒性,并以STC分散緩沖為基礎(chǔ),構(gòu)建了雙目標(biāo)魯棒性調(diào)度模型。綜合運(yùn)用模擬退火和禁忌搜索算法,提出了求解這種雙目標(biāo)魯棒性調(diào)度問(wèn)題的二階段算法。實(shí)驗(yàn)結(jié)果表明,本文所提出的算法搜索過(guò)程較快穩(wěn)定性較好,所得解優(yōu)于單智能算法解,能夠根據(jù)管理者的魯棒性偏好獲得雙目標(biāo)調(diào)度問(wèn)題的近優(yōu)解。 最后,對(duì)非關(guān)鍵鏈溢出和關(guān)鍵鏈斷裂情況下的關(guān)鍵鏈計(jì)劃進(jìn)行研究。針對(duì)關(guān)鍵鏈計(jì)劃插入接駁緩沖后出現(xiàn)資源再次沖突、關(guān)鍵鏈斷裂、非關(guān)鍵鏈溢出等問(wèn)題,提出兩種解決方案。第一種方案從緩沖設(shè)置方式的視角進(jìn)行研究,用分散緩沖方法替代集中緩沖,最后通過(guò)項(xiàng)目管理數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)(PSPLIB)中大量實(shí)例,證明該方法的普遍適用性及其在完工和計(jì)劃魯棒性方面的優(yōu)勢(shì)。第二種方案用二階段啟發(fā)式算法對(duì)出現(xiàn)問(wèn)題的關(guān)鍵鏈計(jì)劃直接進(jìn)行重排：第一階段運(yùn)用動(dòng)態(tài)規(guī)劃和三種重排優(yōu)先級(jí)規(guī)則對(duì)計(jì)劃進(jìn)行重排來(lái)消除資源沖突。針對(duì)重排后仍然存在關(guān)鍵鏈斷裂或非關(guān)鍵鏈溢出的項(xiàng)目,運(yùn)用第二階段提出的啟發(fā)式算法,進(jìn)行二次重排,得到合理的關(guān)鍵鏈計(jì)劃。最后,經(jīng)過(guò)單項(xiàng)目和大量項(xiàng)目仿真實(shí)驗(yàn)證實(shí),該方案能夠有效解決大部分項(xiàng)目的關(guān)鍵鏈重排存在的問(wèn)題,且所制定的關(guān)鍵鏈進(jìn)度計(jì)劃在仿真執(zhí)行中具有更好的完工性績(jī)效。
[Abstract]:Due to the rapid change of the market environment , the uncertainty factors involved in the project , especially the large - scale project , have caused more and more project problems , such as overspending of the cost , higher on - time completion rate and lower cost . At the same time , the modern project management requires shorter cycle , higher on - time completion rate and lower cost .

Firstly , the uncertain factors of the project execution environment , such as the degree of certainty of the activity time , the time limit of the project , the importance of time completion , etc . are comprehensively considered , and the robust project scheduling plan is formulated by using the centralized buffer and STC dispersion buffer method respectively , and the robustness performance indexes of the two buffering methods are compared under the simulation environment .
when the degree of uncertainty of the activity time is large , the quality robustness of the concentrated buffer method is better ;
The decentralized buffer method has better robustness when the project duration is tight .

Then , the applicability of two kinds of buffering methods is studied for different project network characteristics . Considering the factors such as project size and network complexity , different project instances are generated , and the implementation of the project plan under the environment is simulated . The simulation results show that , when the project size is large and the network is complicated , or when the project is not true , the quality robustness of the centralized buffer is always better than the decentralized buffer , and then the central buffering method should be preferred .

A two - stage algorithm for solving the problem of double - target robust scheduling is proposed by using simulated annealing and tabu search algorithm . The results show that the proposed algorithm is better in stability and better than single intelligent algorithm , and can obtain the near optimal solution of double - target scheduling problem according to the robustness preference of the manager .

In the end , the key chain plans in the case of non - critical chain overflow and critical chain fault are studied . Two solutions are proposed for the key chain plans . First , the key chain plans of the problem are rearranged by using dynamic programming and three rearrangement priority rules . Finally , through single project and large number of project simulation experiments , this scheme can effectively solve the problem of key chain rearrangement in most projects , and the key chain schedule plan has better completion performance in simulation execution .
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TU71

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本文編號(hào)：1980676