本文選題：水質(zhì)安全評價 + 風(fēng)險評價　； 參考：《青島理工大學(xué)》2014年博士論文

【摘要】：水是城市生存和發(fā)展的生命線，是保障城市正常發(fā)展和社會穩(wěn)定的基本要素。城市系統(tǒng)與水環(huán)境之間存在著相互補(bǔ)充和相互制約的辯證關(guān)系。一方面，城市系統(tǒng)不斷從水環(huán)境中汲取水資源用于城市中人類的生產(chǎn)與生活活動；另一方面，又向水環(huán)境中釋放著人類生產(chǎn)活動的副產(chǎn)物——污染物，而城市系統(tǒng)就是在這種相互作用的關(guān)系中不斷向前發(fā)展。近年來，受到工農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)規(guī)模的擴(kuò)大、城市人口激增和環(huán)境惡化等因素的影響，我國絕大多數(shù)城市的水環(huán)境呈現(xiàn)出不斷惡化的發(fā)展趨勢。同時，重大突發(fā)性水環(huán)境污染事件頻發(fā)，給原本就脆弱的水環(huán)境體系帶來了新的威脅，并對經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會和生態(tài)系統(tǒng)造成了巨大的損失。 當(dāng)前，我國許多城市已經(jīng)開展了城市供水安全防范的研究，分析風(fēng)險因素，制定應(yīng)對方案和應(yīng)急預(yù)案，以求將水環(huán)境污染風(fēng)險降低到最低。但是，由于不同地區(qū)的地理位置不同，氣候條件和水文狀況不同，城市水廠凈水工藝和原水狀況不同，甚至由于不同地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展特點(diǎn)不同導(dǎo)致的水體特征污染物的不同，應(yīng)對水體污染風(fēng)險的措施自然也不一樣，很難形成一套適應(yīng)于某一類區(qū)域成熟有效的安全防范體系。因此，需要針對研究目標(biāo)的城市，建立符合目標(biāo)城市供水系統(tǒng)特點(diǎn)的安全防范體系。本文以華北地區(qū)某城市水源水和城市供水管網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)為研究對象，針對其水環(huán)境的實(shí)際情況，結(jié)合國內(nèi)外的研究成果，重點(diǎn)展開水環(huán)境風(fēng)險評價和水環(huán)境安全水平變化趨勢分析與預(yù)警的研究，嘗試建立基于城市供水系統(tǒng)水質(zhì)安全評價模型的供水系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險預(yù)警體系，并將體系應(yīng)用于目標(biāo)案例的實(shí)踐之中，以判斷體系的適用性。主要研究內(nèi)容如下： 建立水庫原水水質(zhì)風(fēng)險評價模型。針對案例水庫水質(zhì)富營養(yǎng)化狀況，采用基于層次分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process，AHP)的模糊綜合評價方法對水質(zhì)富營養(yǎng)化水平進(jìn)行綜合評價，分析其潛在風(fēng)險和不利因素，并最終構(gòu)建目標(biāo)水庫富營養(yǎng)化風(fēng)險評價系統(tǒng)界面。研究結(jié)果表明案例水源水近年來水質(zhì)狀況良好，每年夏季會出現(xiàn)水質(zhì)低潮，原因是由于溫度的升高以及氮含量的升高，誘發(fā)了水體藻類大量繁殖，因此針對案例水源水含氮量高的風(fēng)險隱患，提出預(yù)警響應(yīng)。 城市供水系統(tǒng)水質(zhì)安全評價體系的構(gòu)建。通過對案例城市供水系統(tǒng)特點(diǎn)的分析，建立針對該城市供水系統(tǒng)的安全評價指標(biāo)體系，并根據(jù)改進(jìn)的網(wǎng)絡(luò)分析法(Analytic Network Process，ANP)確定指標(biāo)體系權(quán)重，并利用模糊綜合評價法對案例城市供水系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行整體性綜合評價和單管評價。評價結(jié)果表明雖然案例城市管網(wǎng)和管段總體安全性能差強(qiáng)人意，但是存在較大的風(fēng)險隱患，主要由于管道鋪設(shè)年代久遠(yuǎn)，腐蝕嚴(yán)重，造成水壓、水質(zhì)安全水平下降。以此評價結(jié)果為依據(jù)，結(jié)合管網(wǎng)最優(yōu)化技術(shù)研究，對目標(biāo)城市管網(wǎng)進(jìn)行模擬改造，并將改造結(jié)果進(jìn)行對比評價分析，評估改造后的效果，為城市供水系統(tǒng)管網(wǎng)改造提供理論依據(jù)和技術(shù)支持，同時構(gòu)建以ANP法為基礎(chǔ)的城市供水系統(tǒng)安全評價界面。 通過對水庫原水水質(zhì)風(fēng)險評價體系和城市供水系統(tǒng)安全評價體系的研究，構(gòu)建出適用于我國北方地區(qū)區(qū)域水環(huán)境安全評價體系模型，并以此為基礎(chǔ)建立起成熟的水環(huán)境安全評價系統(tǒng)。 以水環(huán)境安全評價系統(tǒng)為核心，以水質(zhì)變化趨勢預(yù)測研究為有效補(bǔ)充，以水環(huán)境安全應(yīng)急預(yù)案為措施，，構(gòu)建水環(huán)境風(fēng)險預(yù)警系統(tǒng)，并將預(yù)警系統(tǒng)實(shí)施于目標(biāo)案例的實(shí)踐之中。
[Abstract]:Water is the lifeline of urban survival and development, and it is the basic element to ensure the normal development and social stability of the city. There is a dialectical relationship between the urban system and the water environment. On the one hand, the urban system draws water resources from the water environment to the production and living activities of the human beings in the city; on the other hand, In the water environment, the by-products of human production activities are released, and the urban system is developing continuously in this kind of interaction. In recent years, the water environment in most cities of our country has been worsened by the expansion of the scale of industrial and agricultural production, the increase of urban population and the deterioration of the environment. At the same time, major sudden water environmental pollution incidents have brought new threats to the fragile water environment system, and caused great losses to the economy, society and the ecosystem.
At present, many cities in our country have carried out the research on the safety and prevention of urban water supply, analyze the risk factors, formulate the countermeasures and emergency plans, in order to reduce the risk of water pollution to the lowest. However, because of the different geographical location of different regions, the different climate conditions and hydrology condition, the water purification process and the original water situation are different in the urban water plant. Even because of the different characteristics of the water body caused by different economic development characteristics in different regions, the measures to deal with the risk of water pollution are naturally different. It is difficult to form a set of effective security system to adapt to a certain type of region. Therefore, it is necessary to set up a special City in accordance with the target city and establish a special city water supply system. Taking the water source water and the urban water supply network system of a city in North China as the research object, aiming at the actual situation of its water environment and combining the research results both at home and abroad, this paper focuses on the risk assessment of water environment and the research on the trend analysis and early warning of water environment safety level, and tries to establish the urban water supply system based on the research. The water quality safety assessment model is used to predict the risk early warning system of water supply system, and the system is applied to the practice of the target case to judge the applicability of the system. The main contents are as follows:
The water quality risk assessment model of the reservoir is set up. According to the eutrophication status of the water quality of the case, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used to evaluate the water eutrophication level synthetically, analyze the potential risk and the non profit factor, and finally construct the Eutrophic wind of the target reservoir. The results show that the water quality of the water source water is good in recent years, and the water quality is low in summer. The reason is the rise of temperature and the increase of nitrogen content, which induces a large number of algae propagation in the water body. Therefore, the early warning response is put forward to the risk of high nitrogen content in the case water source.
The construction of water quality safety evaluation system for urban water supply system. Through the analysis of the characteristics of the case city water supply system, the safety evaluation index system for the urban water supply system is established, and the weight of the index system is determined according to the improved network analysis method (Analytic Network Process, ANP), and the case city is provided by the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The overall comprehensive evaluation and single pipe evaluation of the water system are carried out. The results show that although the overall safety performance of the pipe network and pipe section of the case city is poor, there is a big risk hidden danger, which is mainly due to the long time of pipeline laying, serious corrosion, water pressure and the decrease of water quality safety level. The optimization technology research, the target city pipe network simulation transformation, and the result of the transformation evaluation analysis, evaluation of the effect after the transformation, provide theoretical basis and technical support for the urban water supply system network transformation, and build the safety evaluation interface of urban water supply system based on ANP method.
Through the study of the water quality risk assessment system of the reservoir and the safety evaluation system of the urban water supply system, a model of regional water environment safety evaluation system suitable for the northern region of China is built, and a mature water environment safety evaluation system is established on the basis of this model.
Taking the water environment safety evaluation system as the core, taking the water quality change trend prediction research as an effective supplement, taking the emergency plan of water environment safety as the measure, the water environment risk early warning system is constructed, and the early warning system is implemented in the practice of the target case.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：青島理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TU991

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本文編號：1956399