本文選題：洪水災(zāi)害 + 易損性　； 參考：《哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)》2014年博士論文

【摘要】：近年來頻繁發(fā)生的洪水災(zāi)害表明，城市洪水災(zāi)害不再僅僅是由洪水事件所引發(fā)自然現(xiàn)象的產(chǎn)物，而被看作是洪水事件與城市所具有的易損性之間互動機制所造成的社會現(xiàn)象，即城市中越來越多處于洪水災(zāi)害危險區(qū)域內(nèi)的承災(zāi)體，而城市洪水災(zāi)害易損性對洪水事件的“放大”作用，又加劇了洪水災(zāi)害對城市所可能造成的不利影響和損失程度。且日益頻發(fā)的城市特大洪水災(zāi)害，致使“城市洪水災(zāi)害風險”，即“潛在城市洪水災(zāi)害在給定的時間段和地區(qū)內(nèi)發(fā)生的概率”變得愈發(fā)隨機、波動，而無法預(yù)測，而“城市洪水災(zāi)害易損性”，即“城市面對洪水災(zāi)害所可能造成的損失程度”，作為城市所固有的內(nèi)部屬性，，對其進行研究可用來識別城市中哪些“脆弱區(qū)”或“弱勢群體”需要提前采取應(yīng)急救援措施，避免洪水災(zāi)害所可能造成的災(zāi)難性后果，這將成為未來城市防洪體系建設(shè)中的“政治預(yù)警系統(tǒng)”的核心。 然而，現(xiàn)有的城市洪水災(zāi)害易損性研究主要圍繞構(gòu)成城市洪水災(zāi)害易損性體系中某一特定因素、某一時刻城市洪水災(zāi)害易損性程度進行評估、分析，缺乏對城市洪水災(zāi)害易損性相關(guān)理論和方法的系統(tǒng)研究，導(dǎo)致大多數(shù)研究成果難以應(yīng)用和推廣；而且在研究方法上，描述性和宏觀性的研究偏多，定量、可操作性的研究偏少。因此，為提高城市適應(yīng)和抵御日益增多的洪水災(zāi)害的能力，有必要對城市洪水災(zāi)害易損性體系進行定量、系統(tǒng)的研究，尤其是分析城市洪水災(zāi)害易損性隨時間和空間變動時的動態(tài)演化過程，包括量化土地利用變化和極端暴雨事件等重要影響因素對城市洪水災(zāi)害易損性的影響作用，但目前涉及上述研究內(nèi)容的相關(guān)文獻甚少。 本文將以城市洪水災(zāi)害易損性相關(guān)概念模型為基礎(chǔ)，采用改進的C-NCSA算法、一系列土地利用變化特征和降雨特征演變分析模型、灰色系統(tǒng)動態(tài)模型、廣義Pareto模型以及定性與定量相結(jié)合等多種研究方法，創(chuàng)新性的提出城市洪水災(zāi)害易損性量化模型，并基于城市土地利用變化研究城市洪水災(zāi)害易損性動態(tài)演化過程，以及極端暴雨事件對城市洪水災(zāi)害人的易損性影響分析的影響作用等前沿性課題，并最終繪制完成一系列不同時期、不同洪水淹沒深度、不同土地利用情景下的城市洪水災(zāi)害易損性分布圖。 首先，構(gòu)建城市洪水災(zāi)害易損性量化模型。通過科學(xué)設(shè)定城市洪水災(zāi)害易損性系統(tǒng)的構(gòu)成核心要素，包括城市洪水災(zāi)害暴露性和敏感性，探討這兩個核心要素之間的耦合關(guān)系和互動機制，構(gòu)建城市洪水災(zāi)害易損性量化模型，定量計算城市洪水災(zāi)害危險區(qū)域各單位區(qū)域的易損性數(shù)值；并以改進的C-NCSA算法對所計算的易損性數(shù)值進行聚類，通過GIS軟件實現(xiàn)聚類后易損性數(shù)值的空間展布，繪制不同淹沒深度下城市洪水災(zāi)害危險區(qū)域內(nèi)的易損性分布圖，確定整個城市洪水災(zāi)害危險區(qū)域的易損性程度以及特定“脆弱性”區(qū)域。 其次，探討基于土地利用變化的城市洪水災(zāi)害易損性動態(tài)演化過程。通過提出土地利用變化與城市洪水災(zāi)害易損性的響應(yīng)機制，明確土地利用變化與城市洪水災(zāi)害易損性之間的因果關(guān)系；構(gòu)建一系列土地利用變化特征演變分析模型，監(jiān)測不同時期城市洪水災(zāi)害危險區(qū)域內(nèi)各土地利用類型的均質(zhì)性、優(yōu)勢度和聚集度演變過程；運用構(gòu)建的城市洪水災(zāi)害易損性量化模型，用以模擬并比較分析不同時期、不同淹沒深度、不同土地利用情景下的城市洪水災(zāi)害易損性數(shù)值，并繪制一系列城市洪水災(zāi)害危險區(qū)域內(nèi)易損性分布圖，以確定土地利用的時空分布變化對城市洪水災(zāi)害易損性的影響作用；并以基于灰色系統(tǒng)動態(tài)模型所構(gòu)建的城市洪水災(zāi)害易損性整體演化趨勢分析模型，對未來城市洪水災(zāi)害危險區(qū)域的易損性整體演化趨勢進行預(yù)測、展望。 最后，分析極端暴雨事件對城市洪水災(zāi)害人的易損性影響分析影響作用。通過提出一系列降雨特征演變分析模型，包括降雨趨勢特征模型、降雨突變特征模型，以分析城市歷史年度降雨量整體變化趨勢和突變年份等城市降雨特征的演變過程；并基于廣義Pareto模型，構(gòu)建極端暴雨事件發(fā)生概率的擬合模型，擬合并預(yù)測城市不同歷史時期、不同量級的極端暴雨事件發(fā)生概率；此外，構(gòu)建極端暴雨事件對城市洪水災(zāi)害人的易損性影響分析影響模型，通過分別提出予以闡述極端暴雨事件的物理特性的降雨特征參數(shù)，包括響應(yīng)時間、降雨量特征和降雨持續(xù)時間，以及城市洪水災(zāi)害人的易損性特征參數(shù)，包括年齡、性別，定量分析極端暴雨事件中不同降雨特征參數(shù)對不同群體人的易損性的影響作用，以此確定城市洪水災(zāi)害人的易損性的“弱勢群體”，以及對不同群體人的易損性具有決定性影響作用的極端暴雨事件降雨特征參數(shù)。 本文將構(gòu)建的城市洪水災(zāi)害易損性量化模型，予以探討基于土地利用變化的城市洪水災(zāi)害易損性動態(tài)演化過程，分析極端暴雨事件對城市洪水災(zāi)害人的易損性影響分析的影響作用，旨在彌補目前城市洪水災(zāi)害易損性定量分析和動態(tài)演化研究中的空白，有望對我國未來進行“有風險的洪水管理”防洪體系建設(shè)，政府決策者構(gòu)建基于洪水風險管理的土地空間規(guī)劃和經(jīng)濟發(fā)展提供科學(xué)、有效的技術(shù)支撐。
[Abstract]:The frequent occurrence of flood disasters in recent years shows that urban flood disasters are no longer only the product of natural phenomena caused by flood events, but are regarded as the social phenomena caused by the interaction mechanism between flood events and the vulnerability of cities, that is, more and more cities are in the flood disaster dangerous areas. The "magnification" of flood disaster vulnerability to flood events aggravates the adverse effects and losses that flood disasters may cause to the city. And the increasingly frequent urban flood disasters cause "the risk of urban flood disasters", that is, the probability of "potential urban flood disasters in a given period and area." "It becomes more random, fluctuating and unpredictable, and" the vulnerability of urban flood disaster "," the extent of the possible loss of a city in the face of a flood disaster ". As an inherent internal attribute of a city, the study can be used to identify which" vulnerable areas "or" vulnerable groups "in the city need to take emergency rescue in advance. Measures to avoid catastrophic consequences caused by flood disasters will become the core of the "political early warning system" in the future urban flood control system construction.
However, the existing research on the vulnerability of urban flood disaster is mainly focused on a specific factor in the system of urban flood disaster vulnerability and the degree of vulnerability of urban flood disasters at a certain time, and the systematic study of the theories and methods related to the vulnerability of urban flood disasters is lacking, which leads to the difficulty of most of the research results. It is necessary to make a quantitative and systematic study on the system of urban flood disaster vulnerability, especially to analyze the vulnerability of urban flood disaster, in order to improve the ability of city to adapt and resist increasing flood disaster. The dynamic evolution process with time and space changes, including quantitative land use change and extreme rainstorm events and other important factors affecting the vulnerability of urban flood disaster, but there are few related literature related to the above research content.
Based on the conceptual model of urban flood disaster vulnerability, the improved C-NCSA algorithm, a series of analysis models of land use change characteristics and rainfall characteristics, the dynamic model of grey system, the generalized Pareto model and the combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis are used in this paper, and the vulnerability of urban flood disaster is innovatively proposed. On the basis of urban land use change, the dynamic evolution process of urban flood disaster vulnerability and the impact of Extreme Rainstorm on the vulnerability analysis of urban flood disasters are studied, and a series of different periods, flood inundation depth and different land use scenarios are completed. Distribution map of vulnerability of urban flood disaster.
First, the quantitative model of urban flood disaster vulnerability is constructed. Through the scientific setting of the core elements of the urban flood disaster vulnerability system, including the exposure and sensitivity of urban flood disaster, the coupling relationship and interaction mechanism between the two core elements are discussed, and the quantitative model of flood disaster vulnerability is constructed and the city is quantified to calculate the city flood disaster. The vulnerability value of each unit area in the flood hazard area of the city, and the improved C-NCSA algorithm is used to cluster the calculated vulnerability values, and the spatial distribution of the vulnerability value after clustering is realized through the GIS software, the vulnerability distribution map in the dangerous area of the urban flood disaster under different submerged depths is drawn and the whole city flood is determined. Vulnerability degree of water hazard area and specific "vulnerability" area.
Secondly, the dynamic evolution process of urban flood disaster vulnerability based on land use change is discussed. By putting forward the response mechanism of land use change and urban flood disaster vulnerability, the causal relationship between land use change and urban flood disaster vulnerability is clarifying, and a series of land use change characteristics evolution analysis model is constructed. Monitoring the evolution process of the homogeneity, dominance and aggregation of various types of land use types in the dangerous area of urban flood disasters in different periods, using the quantitative model of urban flood disaster vulnerability to simulate and compare the vulnerability of urban flood disasters under different periods, different submerged depths and different land use scenarios. In order to determine the impact of the spatial and temporal distribution of land use on the vulnerability of urban flood disaster, the overall evolution trend analysis model of urban flood disaster vulnerability based on the dynamic model of grey system is used to determine the risk of flood disaster in the future. The overall evolution trend of vulnerability in the region is forecasted and prospected.
Finally, the influence of extreme rainstorm events on the vulnerability of urban flood disasters is analyzed. A series of rainfall feature evolution models, including rainfall trend feature model and rainfall catastrophe feature model, are put forward to analyze the evolution trend of annual rainfall and the evolution of urban rainfall characteristics. On the basis of the generalized Pareto model, the fitting model of the probability of extreme rainstorm events is constructed, and the probability of extreme rainstorm events in different historical periods of the city is combined to predict the occurrence probability of the extreme rainstorm events. In addition, the model of the influence of extreme rainstorm events to the vulnerability of urban flood disasters is set up. The characteristic parameters of the physical characteristics of extreme rainstorm events, including response time, rainfall characteristics and rainfall duration, and the vulnerability characteristic parameters of urban flood disasters, including age, sex, and quantitative analysis of the effects of different rainfall characteristics on the vulnerability of different populations in extreme rainstorm events, are determined. The vulnerability of urban flood disasters is the "vulnerable group", and the rainfall characteristic parameters of extreme rainstorm events which have a decisive influence on the vulnerability of different populations.
This paper will discuss the dynamic evolution process of the vulnerability of urban flood disaster based on the change of land use, and analyze the influence of the Extreme Rainstorm on the vulnerability analysis of the urban flood disaster, in order to make up the quantitative analysis and dynamics of the vulnerability of the current urban flood disaster. The gap in the evolutionary study is expected to build the flood control system of "risky flood management" in the future of China, and the government decision-makers provide scientific and effective technical support for the construction of land space planning and economic development based on flood risk management.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：P426.616;TU998.4

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