本文選題：城市防災(zāi)規(guī)劃 + 應(yīng)急避難場所��； 參考：《武漢大學》2014年博士論文

【摘要】：近年來各種自然災(zāi)害的頻發(fā)使得城市安全問題受到越來越多的重視。緊急情況發(fā)生以及災(zāi)后恢復階段,應(yīng)急避難所就成為較安全并能保障人們基本生活的過渡性場所。將受災(zāi)人群疏散至安全避難場所的效率直接影響救災(zāi)減災(zāi)的效果,同時也是衡量城市應(yīng)對緊急突發(fā)事件能力的一個重要指標。合理規(guī)劃應(yīng)急避難場所將有利于提升城市防災(zāi)減災(zāi)的效率,因此,科學地分配和配置城市應(yīng)急避難場所,及時疏散避難人員就顯得極為必要和迫切。 在我國,傳統(tǒng)的城市規(guī)劃方法已難以滿足城市發(fā)展的需要,相關(guān)領(lǐng)域新技術(shù)手段的引入為城市規(guī)劃的發(fā)展注入了新的活力�？焖俚某鞘谢厝话殡S著大規(guī)模的新城開發(fā)與舊城更新,這就要求規(guī)劃過程中快速更新信息以進行有效的規(guī)劃支持。規(guī)劃支持系統(tǒng)的一般發(fā)展由于需要相當長的周期,較難滿足中國快速發(fā)展中城市規(guī)劃更新的需要；同時,城市規(guī)劃工作異常復雜,任務(wù)繁多,難以開發(fā)一個滿足規(guī)劃階段各種不同需要的規(guī)劃支持系統(tǒng)。因此,針對城市規(guī)劃過程中不同階段、不同層次的規(guī)劃需要而建立的規(guī)劃支持方法體系更能夠適應(yīng)城市快速發(fā)展及規(guī)劃編制的需要。本文在規(guī)劃支持系統(tǒng)思想的基礎(chǔ)上,針對城市防災(zāi)規(guī)劃中的應(yīng)急避難場所規(guī)劃,將相關(guān)的定量分析、決策技術(shù)方法進行綜合,建立城市應(yīng)急避難場所規(guī)劃的支持方法體系,以支持我國城市防災(zāi)規(guī)劃中應(yīng)急避難場所的空間布局規(guī)劃。 具體地,本研究將定量分析方法、多準則決策等技術(shù)運用到應(yīng)急避難場所規(guī)劃當中,為城市應(yīng)急避難場所規(guī)劃的編制提供理論和方法支持,具有較強的理論研究意義和實用價值。首先對城市防災(zāi)規(guī)劃及城市應(yīng)急避難場所規(guī)劃的相關(guān)理論進行了回顧,并對當前城市應(yīng)急避難場所規(guī)劃的相關(guān)技術(shù)方法進行了研究,詳細論述和總結(jié)了多準則決策理論、區(qū)位模型、空間可達性分析等理論及相關(guān)方法,對規(guī)劃支持系統(tǒng)及規(guī)劃支持方法的研究進行了回顧和總結(jié)。在此基礎(chǔ)上,論文提出了城市應(yīng)急避難場所規(guī)劃支持方法體系的框架及內(nèi)容,主要包括：應(yīng)急避難場所責任區(qū)劃分、避難場所避難有效性分析、新建避難場所選址,所使用的模型或方法包括：責任區(qū)劃分的加權(quán)Voronoi圖方法、基于引力模型的空間可達性分析、基于核心估計模型的人口密度空間分布模擬方法、多準則決策及區(qū)位模型(Loication-Allocation)。 應(yīng)急避難場所責任區(qū)劃分應(yīng)用加權(quán)Voronoi圖,從場所安全性、地形坡度、場所可達性、場所類型、場所容量5個方面選取了6個指標作為Voronoi圖權(quán)重計算的基礎(chǔ),通過矢量方法生成現(xiàn)狀各避難場所的加權(quán)Voronboi圖區(qū)域,并以此作為避難場所的服務(wù)區(qū)劃分的依據(jù)。應(yīng)急避難場所避難有效性分析涉及場所容量和場所基于實際道路網(wǎng)絡(luò)的可達性兩方面,該方法考慮各避難場所的有效面積,以核心估計模型來模擬研究區(qū)域內(nèi)的人口密度空間分布,依據(jù)責任區(qū)劃分得到的各避難場所服務(wù)區(qū)來統(tǒng)計避難場所服務(wù)區(qū)范圍內(nèi)覆蓋的人口數(shù)量,根據(jù)有效面積和避難場所覆蓋人口、人均有效面積標準來推算各避難場所可容納的最大人口數(shù)量,在此基礎(chǔ)上統(tǒng)計各避難場所的利用率、人口配置缺口等指標。由于道路可達性是影響避難疏散效率的重要因素,而加權(quán)voronoi圖沒有考慮基于實際道路的可達性,因此,文中應(yīng)用空間引力模型來計算研究區(qū)域內(nèi)各單元到避難場所的可達性,綜合考慮人口配置缺口大與可達性差的區(qū)域作為增加應(yīng)急避難場所優(yōu)先考慮的區(qū)域。新建避難場所選址基于多準則決策方法(MCDA-Muticriteria Decision Analysis),選取多個準則來對應(yīng)急避難場所用地的適宜性進行分析,得到研究區(qū)域內(nèi)適宜新建避難場所的用地,結(jié)合Location-Allocation模型對新建應(yīng)急避難場所進行選址和原有避難場所布局調(diào)整。最后對規(guī)劃的應(yīng)急避難場所進行有效性分析,分析所規(guī)劃的應(yīng)急避難場所的效率是否得到發(fā)揮。 最后,本研究進行了實例研究。以地震災(zāi)害為例,對武漢市武昌地區(qū)三環(huán)以內(nèi)的區(qū)域,通過以上提出的應(yīng)急避難場所規(guī)劃支持方法來對研究區(qū)域避震緊急避難場所規(guī)劃進行支持,結(jié)合研究結(jié)果對研究區(qū)域地震應(yīng)急避難場所的規(guī)劃布局提出了建議。 本研究的特點在于,在城市防災(zāi)應(yīng)急避難場所規(guī)劃中,將規(guī)劃支持系統(tǒng)的思想與我國規(guī)劃實際相結(jié)合,提出城市防災(zāi)應(yīng)急避難場所規(guī)劃支持方法的框架,相關(guān)研究成果豐富了城市規(guī)劃支持系統(tǒng)和規(guī)劃支持方法的內(nèi)容,該方法不僅適合于地震應(yīng)急避難場所的規(guī)劃支持,對于其它災(zāi)害和其它區(qū)域在相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)支撐的情況下也具有一定的適用性。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the frequent occurrence of various natural disasters has made more and more attention to the problem of urban safety. Emergency situations and post disaster recovery stages, emergency shelters have become a safer and transitional place to guarantee people's basic lives. The efficiency of evacuating the victims to safety shelters directly affects the effect of disaster relief and disaster reduction. At the same time, it is also an important index to measure the ability of urban emergency emergency. The rational planning of emergency shelter will help improve the efficiency of urban disaster prevention and reduction. Therefore, it is very necessary and urgent to distribute and allocate the emergency refuge in the city and evacuate the refuge in time.
In our country, the traditional urban planning method has been difficult to meet the needs of urban development. The introduction of new technical means in the related fields has injected new vitality into the development of urban planning. The rapid urbanization must be accompanied by large-scale new town development and old city renewal, which requires the rapid updating of information in the planning process for effective planning. Support. The general development of the planning support system is difficult to meet the needs of urban planning and renewal in China's rapid development because of a long period of development. At the same time, the urban planning work is very complex, and the task is varied. It is difficult to develop a regulatory support system that meets the various needs of the planning stage. Therefore, in the process of urban planning, the urban planning process is not suitable for the development of urban planning. At the same stage, the planning support method system of different levels of planning needs to meet the needs of urban rapid development and planning. On the basis of the thought of planning support system, this paper aims at the planning of emergency shelters in the urban disaster prevention planning, and integrates the relevant quantitative analysis, decision technology and methods to build the city. The support system of urban emergency shelter planning is to support the spatial layout planning of emergency shelters in China's urban disaster prevention planning.
Specifically, this study applies the quantitative analysis method and multi criteria decision making technology to the planning of emergency shelter. It provides theoretical and method support for the planning of urban emergency shelter. It has strong theoretical research significance and practical value. First, the related theories of urban disaster prevention planning and urban emergency shelter planning. On the basis of reviewing and summarizing the theories and methods of multi criteria decision-making theory, location model, spatial accessibility analysis and so on, the research on the planning support system and the planning support method are reviewed and summarized. The framework and content of the urban emergency shelter planning support method system are put forward, including the division of the responsibility area of the emergency shelter, the analysis of the effectiveness of the refuge place, the location of the new refuge place. The models or methods used include the weighted Voronoi graph method of the division of the responsibility area, and the spatial accessibility based on the gravitational model. The simulation method of population density spatial distribution based on core estimation model, multi criteria decision making and location model (Loication-Allocation) is analyzed.
The weighted Voronoi graph is used to divide the area of responsibility for emergency refuge, and 6 indexes are selected as the basis of weight calculation of Voronoi map from 5 aspects of place safety, terrain slope, place accessibility, place type and place capacity. The weighted Voronboi map area of various refuge places is generated by vector method, and it is used as a refuge place. The analysis of the effectiveness of the refuge area of the emergency shelter involves two aspects of the capacity and the accessibility of the site based on the actual road network. This method takes into account the effective area of the shelters, and uses the core estimation model to simulate the spatial distribution of population density in the study area and the shelters based on the area of responsibility. The number of population covered by the service area in the service area of the refuge area is calculated by the service area. According to the effective area and the shelter area covering the population, the per capita effective area standard is used to calculate the maximum number of people in the shelters. On this basis, the utilization rate of various refuge places and the gap of the population allocation are counted. The important factor affecting the evacuation efficiency is that the weighted Voronoi diagram does not consider the accessibility based on the actual road. Therefore, the space gravity model is used to calculate the accessibility of the unit to the refuge in the study area, and the area with large population gap and poor accessibility is considered as a priority to increase the emergency refuge. The site selection is based on the multi criteria decision making method (MCDA-Muticriteria Decision Analysis), and several criteria are selected to analyze the suitability of the land for emergency refuge, and the site suitable for the newly built refuge is obtained in the study area, and the site of the new emergency refuge is selected with the Location-Allocation model. And the layout of the original refuge place is adjusted. Finally, the effectiveness of the planned emergency shelters is analyzed, and the efficiency of the planned emergency shelter is analyzed.
Finally, a case study is carried out in this study. Taking earthquake disaster as an example, it supports the planning of regional earthquake emergency shelters through the proposed emergency shelter planning support method in the area of the three rings in Wuchang area of Wuhan City, and combines the results of the research to the planning and layout of the research area of the regional earthquake emergency refuge. A suggestion was made.
The characteristics of this study are that in the planning of urban disaster prevention and emergency shelter, the idea of planning support system is combined with the actual planning of China, and the framework of support method for urban disaster prevention and emergency shelter planning is put forward. The relevant research results enrich the content of urban planning support system and planning support method. This method is not only suitable for the planning of urban disaster prevention and refuge. Planning support for earthquake emergency shelters is also applicable to other disasters and other regions in support of relevant data.

【學位授予單位】：武漢大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TU984.116

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