本文選題：管道災害風險 + 濕陷性黃土��； 參考：《西南石油大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著全國主干油氣管網(wǎng)的逐步建成,越來越多的長輸油氣管道多次穿越我國西北大片的黃土塬地區(qū)。由于黃土獨特的自然特性,由黃土地質(zhì)災害引發(fā)的管道安全事故也呈逐年增多的趨勢。為了保護位于黃土地區(qū)油氣管道的安全運行,通過研究黃土自然災害誘發(fā)管道事故的作用機理,建立一套科學的風險評價方法,為該地區(qū)油氣管道的完整性管理提供決策依據(jù),具有重要的現(xiàn)實意義和工程實用價值。 本文在調(diào)研管道濕陷性黃土災害機理分析和管道風險評價技術(shù)研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合長輸管道在黃土災害作用下的失效模式,構(gòu)建起管道濕陷性黃土災害失效故障樹,通過對所建故障樹的定性分析和對底事件結(jié)構(gòu)重要度的計算,辨識了影響穿越黃土塬地區(qū)長輸管道安全的主要風險因素,據(jù)此建立了濕陷性黃土誘發(fā)管道失效可能性的多層次風險因素指標體系,按照管道風險評價的基本原理,并結(jié)合API581所建立的風險矩陣,建立起了評價管道濕陷性黃土災害風險的半定量模型和管道災害風險等級的劃分標準。在管道失效可能性評估中引用改進層次分析法和模糊綜合評價技術(shù),較好地解決了評價指標體系權(quán)重分配受主觀影響大的實際問題；在失效后果評價中參照API581推薦的有關(guān)人員傷亡、直接經(jīng)濟損失和無形損失的評價方法,并結(jié)合我國相關(guān)技術(shù)標準的有關(guān)規(guī)定建立的管道失效后果評價摸型,既遵守了國際慣例,又符合本國國情。最后,依據(jù)本研究建立的管道濕陷性黃土災害風險評價方法,對西氣東輸管道上的幾處典型濕陷性黃土災害點進行了風險評價應用驗證,評價結(jié)果符合工程實際。 本文針對管道濕陷性黃土災害建立的風險評價方法,從技術(shù)原理上嚴格遵守了管道風險評價的基本原理,在評價指標體系的評分權(quán)重分配上提出了新的處理方法,相對傳統(tǒng)的管道風險半定量評價方法降低了主觀性影響,所以采用這種風險評價方法得到的評價結(jié)果更加符合工程實際。本項研究成果在其它地質(zhì)災害引起的管道風險評價中具有一定的推廣應用價值。
[Abstract]:With the gradual completion of the main oil and gas pipeline network in China, more and more long oil and gas pipelines pass through a large area of loess tableland in northwest China.Due to the unique natural characteristics of loess, pipeline safety accidents caused by loess geological disasters are also increasing year by year.In order to protect the safe operation of oil and gas pipelines in loess area, a set of scientific risk assessment method is established by studying the mechanism of pipeline accidents induced by natural disasters of loess, which provides a decision basis for the integrity management of oil and gas pipelines in this area.It has important practical significance and practical value.On the basis of investigating the mechanism of collapsible loess disaster of pipeline and the research results of pipeline risk assessment technology, combined with the failure mode of long-distance pipeline under the action of loess disaster, the failure tree of collapsible loess disaster of pipeline is constructed in this paper.Based on the qualitative analysis of the fault tree and the calculation of the importance of the bottom event structure, the main risk factors affecting the safety of long-distance pipeline crossing the Loess Plateau are identified.According to the principle of pipeline risk assessment and the risk matrix established by API581, a multi-level risk factor index system of collapsible loess induced pipeline failure is established.A semi-quantitative model for evaluating pipeline collapsible loess disaster risk and a standard for classification of pipeline hazard risk are established.In the evaluation of pipeline failure possibility, the improved AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation technology are used to solve the practical problem that the weight distribution of the evaluation index system is greatly affected by the subjective influence.In the evaluation of failure consequences, referring to the evaluation methods of personnel casualties, direct economic losses and intangible losses recommended by API581, and combining with the relevant regulations of relevant technical standards of our country, the evaluation model of pipeline failure consequences has been established, which not only complies with international practice,Also in line with the national conditions.Finally, according to the risk assessment method of collapsible loess in pipeline, the risk assessment of several typical collapsible loess disaster points in the pipeline from west to east is verified, and the evaluation results are in line with the engineering practice.Aiming at the risk assessment method of collapsible loess disaster of pipeline, this paper strictly obeys the basic principle of pipeline risk assessment in terms of technical principle, and puts forward a new treatment method on the distribution of scoring weight of evaluation index system.Compared with the traditional semi-quantitative evaluation method of pipeline risk, the subjective impact is reduced, so the evaluation results obtained by this method are more in line with the engineering practice.The results of this study have a certain value of popularization and application in pipeline risk assessment caused by other geological disasters.
【學位授予單位】：西南石油大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TU444

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 管曉丹;黃建平;郭鈮;閉建榮;王國印;;Variability of Soil Moisture and Its Relationship with Surface Albedo and Soil Thermal Parameters over the Loess Plateau[J];Advances in Atmospheric Sciences;2009年04期

2 任志平,劉青,魏立新,汪玉同;穿越輸油管道腐蝕因素的模糊評判[J];大慶石油學院學報;2004年01期

3 蘇培東;羅倩;姚安林;蔣宏業(yè);汪世亮;;西氣東輸管道沿線地質(zhì)災害特征研究[J];地質(zhì)災害與環(huán)境保護;2009年02期

4 黃志潛;管道完整性及其管理[J];焊管;2004年03期

5 NAOTO Ishikawa;;Loess magnetic properties in the Ili Basin and their correlation with the Chinese Loess Plateau[J];Science China(Earth Sciences);2010年03期

6 辜冬梅;姚安林;尹旭東;蔣宏業(yè);李又綠;;基于層次-模糊評價法的山區(qū)油氣管道地質(zhì)災害易發(fā)性研究[J];中國安全生產(chǎn)科學技術(shù);2012年05期

7 趙永濤;;油氣管道風險評價現(xiàn)狀及對策研究[J];石油化工安全環(huán)保技術(shù);2007年01期

8 邢志祥;;天然氣長輸管道的定量風險評價方法[J];石油機械;2008年04期

9 蔣宏業(yè),姚安林,鄭興華,羅宇義,李又綠;天然氣球罐失效故障樹分析[J];天然氣工業(yè);2003年06期

10 楊曉秋,宋德琦;濕陷性黃土地區(qū)長輸管道工程災害治理研究[J];天然氣與石油;2004年01期

相關(guān)博士學位論文 前1條

1 柳墩利;高速鐵路濕陷性黃土地基處理試驗研究[D];中國鐵道科學研究院;2012年

，

本文編號：1761179