本文關鍵詞： 水位埋深 動態(tài)類型 預測 供水安全 地下水源地　出處：《長安大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：西安是我國西北地區(qū)最大的城市，20世紀70～90年代由于城市快速發(fā)展，長期超量開采地下水，使得地下水位急劇下降，造成了一系列的環(huán)境地質(zhì)問題，嚴重影響了城市的健康發(fā)展。因此，本文通過收集西安地區(qū)的自然地理、社會經(jīng)濟、水文氣象、水文地質(zhì)條件、地下水開發(fā)利用情況和地下水位監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù)等資料，，分析了研究區(qū)1984～2010年地下水位埋深的時空變化規(guī)律，劃分了地下水動態(tài)類型，研究了氣候變化和人類活動對地下水位的影響，預測了2011～2020年地下水位埋深的變化趨勢，并在實地調(diào)研的基礎上對各水源地地下水供水安全程度進行了分析評價，主要得到以下幾點結論： 1、分析地下水位埋深得出，1984～2010年研究區(qū)潛水水位平均埋深為11.72m，最大降差可達5.92m，主要經(jīng)歷了快速下降期—穩(wěn)定期—緩慢回升期3個階段；承壓水頭在1997年以前呈明顯下降趨勢，普遍下降50m左右，最大下降量可達100m，1997年以后城區(qū)自備井開采區(qū)呈明顯回升趨勢，最大回升量可達3.3m/a。 2、對不同區(qū)域潛水水位埋深變化時間序列的趨勢檢驗得出，西郊灃皂河水源地（K83-3付）和城區(qū)自備井（291）開采區(qū)潛水水位埋深變化趨勢分別在2006和2003年出現(xiàn)了非常明顯的突變，潛水水位埋深均有下降轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)榛厣厔�；北郊渭濱水源地潛水水位埋深在1996年發(fā)生突變，1997～2010年期間水位埋深呈顯著下降趨勢；其它地區(qū)潛水水位變化趨勢沒有發(fā)生突變情況，但農(nóng)灌開采區(qū)和灞河水源地的潛水水位埋深對環(huán)境變化的敏感性較強，其水位埋深波動性明顯大于一、二級階地地區(qū)。 3、采用克里格（Kriging）插值法對地下水埋深進行分區(qū)，得其埋深空間分布情況基本表現(xiàn)為東南大、北部小，開采區(qū)潛水水位和承壓水頭埋深明顯大于其它地區(qū)。同時，結合MapGis屬性庫統(tǒng)計功能，重點研究了1998～2010年潛水水位和承壓水頭不同埋深分區(qū)的面積變化情況，得潛水水位埋深主要集中到10～20m范圍，該分區(qū)占總面積的比例已由45.9%增長至56.8%；承壓水頭埋深大于100m的區(qū)域逐漸減小，20～60m和60～100m的區(qū)域面積有所增長，埋深主要集中到20～60m，該區(qū)約占總面積的50%左右。 4、運用主成分投影-聚類分析法，將西安地區(qū)不同水文地質(zhì)單元及開采區(qū)的潛水水位動態(tài)類型劃分為水文強、中、弱和開采影響型四類，并結合水文氣象因素與水位埋深的相關分析和主成分分析結果，得出非開采區(qū)范圍內(nèi)從河漫灘至二級階地潛水水位受水文因素影響由強變?nèi)�，水文氣象因素的影響程度由大到小排列為徑流量＞降水量＞蒸發(fā)量＞氣溫等其它因素，開采區(qū)內(nèi)潛水動態(tài)受地下水開采影響較大。 5、通過回歸模型，研究了工業(yè)活動與潛水水位埋深的關系，得出上世紀90年代工業(yè)活動對潛水水位的影響最為明顯，每增加10億元的工業(yè)產(chǎn)值，就能使平均潛水水位下降0.2m左右。 6、建立了降水量、蒸發(fā)量和地下水開采量為影響因素的潛水水位埋深自適應模糊推理系統(tǒng)（ANFIS）神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡預測模型，并運用該模型與灰色模型（GM（1，1））和徑向基（RBF）神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡相結合，預測出2011～2020年西安地區(qū)潛水水位平均埋深變化情況，結果表明其平均水位埋深在12.5m左右波動，整體有微弱的回升趨勢。 7、通過實地調(diào)研，分析了研究區(qū)地下水供水存在的問題，并參考其它地區(qū)的相關研究成果構建了供水安全評價指標體系，利用層次-集對分析法對5個地下水源地的供水安全狀況進行分析評價，結果表明其供水安全程度的優(yōu)劣排序為：皂河地下水源地＞渭河西北郊地下水源地＞渭濱地下水源地＞灃河地下水源地＞灞河地下水源地。
[Abstract]:Xi'an is the largest city in Northwest China, in twentieth Century 70~90 years due to the rapid development of the city, long-term over exploitation of groundwater, the groundwater level decreased sharply, causing a series of environmental and geological problems, has seriously affected the healthy development of the city. Therefore, this paper through the collection of physical geography, the social economy in Xi'an area, hydrological and Meteorological. Hydrogeological conditions and groundwater monitoring data of groundwater exploitation and utilization, analyzes the temporal and spatial variation of 1984~2010 years of groundwater depth, groundwater dynamic type division, study the effects of climate change and human activities on groundwater level and predict the variation trend of underground water depth of 2011~2020 years, analysis evaluation of the groundwater and the water supply safety degree on the basis of the investigation, the main draw the following conclusions:
1, the depth of analysis show that the groundwater level, 1984~2010 years of the study area groundwater level average depth is 11.72m, the biggest drop of up to 5.92m, which experienced a rapid decline in 3 stages - stable stage - slow recovery period; pressure head was significantly decreased in 1997 before the general decline of about 50m, the maximum reduction of up to 100m after 1997, the city wells mining area showed a recovery trend, the maximum recovery capacity of up to 3.3m/a.
2, the trend test of phreatic water level in different regions of the buried depth of time series that the West Feng soap water (K83-3 Fu) and City wells (291) mining area water depth change trend occurred in 2006 and 2003 respectively. The mutation is very obvious, the water depth decreased into an upward trend Beijiao; Weibin water to the water depth is mutated in 1996, during the 1997~2010 years the water depth decreased significantly; the change trend of groundwater level in other regions without mutation, but the sensitivity of agricultural irrigation water in the mining area and Bahe phreatic water level changes on the environment of deep buried strong, the depth of water level fluctuation greater than one, the two terrace area.
3, by Craig (Kriging) interpolation method to groundwater depth partition, the depth distribution of the basic performance of the southeast, north of small mining area water depth and the confined water head was significantly greater than that in other areas. At the same time, combined with the MapGis attribute database statistics, focusing on the changes in the area 1998~2010 years of diving the water level and pressure head in different depth zones, so the water depth is mainly concentrated to the range of 10 ~ 20m, the area accounted for the proportion of the total area has increased from 45.9% to 56.8%; the pressure head depth greater than the 100m of the region was gradually reduced, 20 ~ 60m and 60 ~ 100m area increased, the depth of mainly to 20 ~ 60m, the area accounted for about 50% of the total area.
4, using the principal component projection clustering analysis method, the groundwater level dynamic classification of different hydrogeologic units in Xi'an area and mining area for the hydrological, strong, weak and effect of the extraction of four types, the results of analysis of correlation and principal component combined with the hydrological and meteorological factors and water depth, the non mining area from floodplain to two terraces of phreatic water level affected by hydrological factors from strong to weak, the influence degree of hydrological and meteorological factors from large to small, arranged for other factors of runoff, precipitation, evaporation, temperature, mining area groundwater dynamic influence by diving mining.
5, through regression model, we studied the relationship between industrial activity and groundwater depth. It is concluded that industrial activity has the most obvious impact on groundwater level in the 90s of last century, and that the average diving water level will decrease by 0.2m or so if the industrial output value increases by 1 billion yuan.
6, the establishment of precipitation, evaporation and groundwater exploitation for the adaptive fuzzy inference system for deep water impact factors (ANFIS) neural network prediction model, and uses this model and grey model (GM (1,1)) and radial basis function (RBF) neural network combined to predict water diving in Xi'an area 2011~2020 the average annual change of buried depth, the results show that the average depth of water level fluctuation is about 12.5m, the overall trend has picked up weak.
7, through field research, analyzes the existing problems of groundwater supply, and according to the relevant research results in other areas to build water supply safety evaluation index system, using AHP to analyze and evaluate the safety of water supply in condition of 5 underground water source analysis, the results show that the order of the degree of safety for water supply soap: River groundwater source, northwest Weihe underground water source, Weibin underground water source, Feng River groundwater source, Bahe River groundwater.

【學位授予單位】：長安大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TU991.112

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