本文關(guān)鍵詞：建設(shè)工程施工項(xiàng)目目標(biāo)成本預(yù)測(cè)及成本控制研究　出處：《蘭州交通大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 目標(biāo)成本 成本預(yù)測(cè) 成本控制 回歸分析 貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)

【摘要】：近些年來(lái)，隨著改革開(kāi)放的大力發(fā)展與國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的不斷提升，我國(guó)施工企業(yè)在提高生產(chǎn)能力的同時(shí)也產(chǎn)生了新的生產(chǎn)需求，然而我國(guó)項(xiàng)目管理理論和實(shí)踐的發(fā)展卻依然非常緩慢。傳統(tǒng)的項(xiàng)目成本管理方式和體制在當(dāng)今項(xiàng)目管理中暴露出了很多的不足，這些不足已經(jīng)嚴(yán)重的阻礙了我國(guó)建設(shè)事業(yè)的蓬勃發(fā)展，制約著我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的提高，因此，新型的施工項(xiàng)目成本管理方法、模式，值得我們仔細(xì)地研究和探討。 本文在對(duì)建設(shè)工程施工項(xiàng)目目標(biāo)成本管理理論進(jìn)行深入研究的基礎(chǔ)上，，嘗試性的對(duì)回歸分析法和貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)在項(xiàng)目成本管理中的應(yīng)用進(jìn)行了研究，借助回歸分析法在歷史數(shù)據(jù)信息提煉方面的優(yōu)勢(shì)及貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)強(qiáng)大的不確定性問(wèn)題的處理能力，分別對(duì)工程項(xiàng)目成本的預(yù)測(cè)和控制進(jìn)行了探討，并通過(guò)工程實(shí)例驗(yàn)證了兩種方法在成本管理中的有效性，希望對(duì)改善和提高施工企業(yè)成本管理水平提供幫助。 首先，本文在國(guó)內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀的基礎(chǔ)上，詳細(xì)介紹了目標(biāo)成本理論和成本控制理論，并分析了傳統(tǒng)項(xiàng)目成本管理理論的不足。根據(jù)我國(guó)項(xiàng)目成本管理領(lǐng)域的現(xiàn)狀，提出了本文要研究的問(wèn)題。 其次，針對(duì)我國(guó)項(xiàng)目成本管理中的不同問(wèn)題，分別提出了新的解決途徑。在成本預(yù)測(cè)方面，引入回歸分析法，介紹了回歸分析法的相關(guān)理論及運(yùn)用該方法建立成本預(yù)測(cè)模型的一般步驟�；貧w分析法具有客觀性強(qiáng)、操作簡(jiǎn)單、數(shù)據(jù)信息提取準(zhǔn)確等優(yōu)點(diǎn)，同時(shí)它還具有可重復(fù)性，即建模過(guò)程具有一般性。因此，運(yùn)用回歸分析法的建模過(guò)程可以在建筑企業(yè)之間進(jìn)行推廣，具有一定的實(shí)際意義。 在成本控制方面，針對(duì)傳統(tǒng)控制方法在事前控制環(huán)節(jié)的薄弱，引入貝葉斯網(wǎng)理論，借助于貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)的診斷功能，即根據(jù)結(jié)果尋找原因的能力。在施工前先假設(shè)目標(biāo)成本出現(xiàn)變動(dòng)，然后根據(jù)假設(shè)找出影響成本的因素，通過(guò)對(duì)成本影響因素的控制達(dá)到對(duì)成本進(jìn)行事前控制的目的。 最后，結(jié)合實(shí)際案例，對(duì)上述模型進(jìn)行了具體應(yīng)用，并證明了模型的有效性。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the vigorous development of reform and opening up and the continuous improvement of the national economy, the construction enterprises in China not only improve the production capacity, but also produce new production demand. However, the development of project management theory and practice in our country is still very slow. The traditional project cost management mode and system have exposed a lot of deficiencies in today's project management. These deficiencies have seriously hindered the vigorous development of our country's construction cause and restricted the improvement of our country's economy. Therefore, the new construction project cost management method, the pattern, is worth our careful study and discussion. Based on the deep research on the theory of target cost management of construction project, this paper tries to study the application of regression analysis and Bayesian network in project cost management. With the help of the advantage of regression analysis in the extraction of historical data and the ability of Bayesian network to deal with uncertain problems, the prediction and control of project cost are discussed respectively. The effectiveness of the two methods in cost management is verified by an engineering example. It is hoped that the two methods can help to improve the cost management level of construction enterprises. Firstly, this paper introduces the theory of target cost and the theory of cost control on the basis of domestic and foreign research status. According to the current situation in the field of project cost management in China, the problems to be studied in this paper are put forward. Secondly, aiming at the different problems of project cost management in our country, this paper puts forward a new way to solve the problem, and introduces the regression analysis method in cost forecasting. This paper introduces the related theory of regression analysis and the general steps of establishing cost prediction model by using this method. Regression analysis has the advantages of objectivity, simple operation, accurate data information extraction and so on. At the same time, it has repeatability, that is, the modeling process is general. Therefore, the modeling process using regression analysis method can be popularized among construction enterprises, which has certain practical significance. In the aspect of cost control, aiming at the weakness of the traditional control method in advance control, Bayesian network theory is introduced, with the help of the diagnostic function of Bayesian network. That is, the ability to find the cause according to the result. Before the construction, the target cost is assumed to change, and then the factors that affect the cost are found out according to the assumption. The purpose of controlling the cost in advance is achieved by controlling the influencing factors of cost. Finally, combined with practical cases, the above model is applied and the validity of the model is proved.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘭州交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TU723.3

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前5條

1 田志學(xué),葉劍,張宿;工程項(xiàng)目目標(biāo)成本與進(jìn)度控制方法研究[J];北京航空航天大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(社會(huì)科學(xué)版);2001年04期

2 張鵬;辛露;;建筑工程項(xiàng)目管理問(wèn)題及解決對(duì)策[J];科技創(chuàng)新與應(yīng)用;2012年02期

3 周群;價(jià)值工程在施工管理中的應(yīng)用[J];工業(yè)工程;2005年01期

4 紀(jì)博雅;金占勇;戚振強(qiáng);;基于BIM的工程造價(jià)精細(xì)化管理研究[J];北京建筑工程學(xué)院學(xué)報(bào);2013年04期

5 張利榮,王素梅;工程項(xiàng)目成本預(yù)測(cè)的多基元模糊算法[J];河海大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(自然科學(xué)版);2004年03期

本文編號(hào)：1428173