【摘要】：本文以明斯基的內(nèi)生金融不穩(wěn)定假說作為理論內(nèi)核,將工業(yè)企業(yè)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率作為企業(yè)融資類型指標(biāo),并利用我國(guó)31個(gè)省份2006年1月至2014年12月的月度數(shù)據(jù),用指標(biāo)構(gòu)建法得到了我國(guó)的金融穩(wěn)定狀況指數(shù),進(jìn)而將其與企業(yè)融資類型、各省生產(chǎn)總值建立面板向量自回歸模型進(jìn)行分析。實(shí)證結(jié)果表明,金融不穩(wěn)定的加劇對(duì)各省生產(chǎn)總值長(zhǎng)期存在負(fù)向影響;各省生產(chǎn)總值的發(fā)展對(duì)金融不穩(wěn)定有減輕作用;資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率的增加即企業(yè)投機(jī)融資和龐氏融資的增加會(huì)加劇金融不穩(wěn)定;同時(shí)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率的增加對(duì)各省生產(chǎn)總值影響為負(fù)。因此,中國(guó)省份面板數(shù)據(jù)實(shí)證分析證明了明斯基金融不穩(wěn)定假說的正確性。為保持我國(guó)金融穩(wěn)定性和經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)增長(zhǎng),應(yīng)適當(dāng)出臺(tái)政策抑制企業(yè)融資向龐氏融資的轉(zhuǎn)變。
[Abstract]:This paper takes Minsky's endogenous financial instability hypothesis as the theoretical core, takes the asset-liability ratio of industrial enterprises as the index of enterprise financing type, and makes use of the monthly data from January 2006 to December 2014 in 31 provinces of China. The index of China's financial stability is obtained by using the index construction method, and then it is analyzed with the financing type of enterprises and the panel vector autoregressive model of the GDP of each province. The empirical results show that the exacerbation of financial instability has a negative impact on the GDP of each province for a long time, and the development of the GDP of each province can alleviate the financial instability. The increase of asset-liability ratio, that is, the increase of enterprise speculative financing and Ponzi financing, will aggravate financial instability, and the increase of asset-liability ratio will have a negative impact on the GDP of each province. Therefore, the empirical analysis of China's provincial panel data proves the validity of Minsky's financial instability hypothesis. In order to maintain the financial stability and sustainable economic growth of our country, we should introduce appropriate policies to restrain the transformation of enterprise financing to Ponzi financing.
【作者單位】： 南開大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院經(jīng)濟(jì)系;南開大學(xué)中國(guó)特色社會(huì)主義建設(shè)協(xié)同創(chuàng)新中心;
【基金】：中國(guó)特色社會(huì)主義經(jīng)濟(jì)建設(shè)協(xié)同創(chuàng)新中心一般項(xiàng)目“產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)、經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)平穩(wěn)化和經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)問題研究”和“流動(dòng)性問題研究——基于馬克思貨幣、信用與虛擬資本理論”的階段性成果
【分類號(hào)】：F406.7;F424

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