【摘要】：國(guó)務(wù)院于2015年發(fā)布的《中國(guó)制造2025》拉開(kāi)了我國(guó)制造強(qiáng)國(guó)戰(zhàn)略十年綱領(lǐng)計(jì)劃的序幕,在隨后的2016年,《裝備制造業(yè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化和質(zhì)量提升規(guī)劃》的推廣更是為制造業(yè)的發(fā)展鋪好了前進(jìn)的階石,制造強(qiáng)國(guó)的思路已成為我國(guó)當(dāng)前最重要的指導(dǎo)思想之一。而作為裝備制造業(yè)領(lǐng)頭軍的設(shè)備制造業(yè),它的發(fā)展水平已經(jīng)成為衡量國(guó)家硬實(shí)力的重要標(biāo)準(zhǔn),同時(shí),設(shè)備制造業(yè)也是我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的重要支柱產(chǎn)業(yè),更是產(chǎn)業(yè)升級(jí)的重要保障。設(shè)備制造業(yè)可分為專用設(shè)備制造業(yè)和通用設(shè)備制造業(yè)。專用設(shè)備制造業(yè)是為我國(guó)第一產(chǎn)業(yè)、第二產(chǎn)業(yè)、第三產(chǎn)業(yè)和防務(wù)設(shè)施以及基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施供應(yīng)行業(yè)專用固定資產(chǎn)的行業(yè)。它的發(fā)展受到很多因素的影響,比如國(guó)家政策、稅收政策、產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型趨勢(shì)、投資力度大小、上下游產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展?fàn)顟B(tài)等,總體來(lái)說(shuō),在現(xiàn)階段專用設(shè)備制造業(yè)呈現(xiàn)出快速發(fā)展的軌跡。通用設(shè)備制造業(yè)是為工業(yè)提供動(dòng)力、傳動(dòng)、基礎(chǔ)加工、等基礎(chǔ)零部件,行業(yè)產(chǎn)品應(yīng)用領(lǐng)域廣泛,主要涵蓋航空航天、交通運(yùn)輸、石油化工等市場(chǎng),是設(shè)備制造業(yè)中的基礎(chǔ)性產(chǎn)業(yè)。近年來(lái),專用設(shè)備制造業(yè)和通用設(shè)備制造業(yè)的稅收收入呈不斷上升趨勢(shì),這不僅與我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速增長(zhǎng)有關(guān),更與設(shè)備制造業(yè)在我國(guó)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施中所扮演的角色越來(lái)越重要有著密切的關(guān)系。稅收收入不僅構(gòu)成了國(guó)家財(cái)政收入的大部分,更是我國(guó)行使各種職能的物質(zhì)基礎(chǔ),有效進(jìn)行某一行業(yè)的稅收收入預(yù)測(cè)能夠幫助稅務(wù)工作人員預(yù)見(jiàn)未來(lái)的稅收情況,也可以很好的對(duì)行業(yè)的發(fā)展情形作出規(guī)劃,更可以對(duì)稅收政策的制定提供參考價(jià)值。設(shè)備制造業(yè)稅收收入預(yù)測(cè)是在是對(duì)設(shè)備制造業(yè)歷史稅收數(shù)據(jù)收集、稅收影響因素分析等共同作用下進(jìn)行的,對(duì)設(shè)備制造業(yè)稅收管理計(jì)劃的制定有參考意義�，F(xiàn)今雖然有很多稅收收入預(yù)測(cè)模型,但大部分是針對(duì)其他行業(yè)、同一稅種或全國(guó)稅收收入來(lái)進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)的,對(duì)設(shè)備制造業(yè)稅收收入來(lái)說(shuō)難以做到預(yù)測(cè)的精和準(zhǔn)。本文在緒論章節(jié)后首先對(duì)專用設(shè)備制造業(yè)和通用設(shè)備制造業(yè)的內(nèi)涵、發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀及行業(yè)發(fā)展特點(diǎn)進(jìn)行梳理;其次從宏觀和微觀兩個(gè)角度對(duì)專用設(shè)備制造業(yè)和通用設(shè)備制造業(yè)的稅收收入進(jìn)行模型的構(gòu)建、預(yù)測(cè)及分析,其中宏觀角度涉及到時(shí)間序列法、回歸分析法和趨勢(shì)外推法,微觀分析則利用經(jīng)濟(jì)意義和逐步回歸兩種辦法對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行分析;最后,通過(guò)相對(duì)誤差的對(duì)比及預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果的分析將模型進(jìn)行優(yōu)劣評(píng)價(jià),對(duì)于分析設(shè)備制造業(yè)稅收收入情況、促進(jìn)專用設(shè)備制造業(yè)和通用設(shè)備制造業(yè)稅收征收管理具有重要作用?
[Abstract]:The "made in China 2025", released by the State Council in 2015, kicked off the 10-year strategic program of China's manufacturing power, followed by 2016. The promotion of "Standardization and quality improvement Program for equipment Manufacturing Industry" has laid a good stone for the development of manufacturing industry, and the thinking of manufacturing power has become one of the most important guiding ideology at present in our country. As the leader of equipment manufacturing industry, the development level of equipment manufacturing industry has become an important standard to measure national hard strength. At the same time, equipment manufacturing industry is also an important pillar industry of our country's economic development and an important guarantee of industrial upgrading. Equipment manufacturing industry can be divided into specialized equipment manufacturing industry and general equipment manufacturing industry. The special equipment manufacturing industry is a special fixed assets industry for China's primary industry, secondary industry, tertiary industry, defense facilities and infrastructure supply industry. Its development is affected by many factors, such as national policies, tax policies, industrial transformation trends, investment dynamics, upstream and downstream industrial development status, etc. Generally speaking, At the present stage, the special equipment manufacturing industry presents a rapid development track. The general equipment manufacturing industry provides power, transmission, basic processing, and other basic components for industry. The products in the industry are widely used in a wide range of fields, mainly covering markets such as aerospace, transportation, petrochemical, etc. Is the basic industry in the equipment manufacturing industry. In recent years, the tax revenue of the special equipment manufacturing industry and the general equipment manufacturing industry has been on the rise, which is not only related to the rapid economic growth of our country. More and more, the equipment manufacturing industry plays an increasingly important role in China's infrastructure. Tax revenue not only constitutes the majority of the national financial revenue, but also the material basis for our country to exercise all kinds of functions. Effective tax revenue forecasting in a certain industry can help tax officials to foresee the future tax situation. It can also make a good plan for the development of the industry and provide reference value for the tax policy formulation. The tax revenue forecast of the equipment manufacturing industry is carried out under the joint action of collecting the historical tax data of the equipment manufacturing industry and analyzing the influencing factors of the tax revenue. It has reference significance for the establishment of the tax management plan of the equipment manufacturing industry. Although there are many tax revenue forecasting models nowadays, most of them are for other industries, the same tax category or national tax revenue to forecast, and it is difficult to predict the tax revenue of the equipment manufacturing industry. After the introduction, this paper firstly combs the connotation, current situation and characteristics of the special equipment manufacturing industry and the general equipment manufacturing industry. Secondly, the tax revenue model of special equipment manufacturing industry and general equipment manufacturing industry is constructed, predicted and analyzed from the macro and micro perspectives, including time series method, regression analysis method and trend extrapolation method, in which the macroscopic angle is related to time series method, regression analysis method and trend extrapolation method. Microanalysis uses economic meaning and stepwise regression to analyze the data. Finally, through the comparison of relative errors and the analysis of forecast results, the model is evaluated, which plays an important role in analyzing the tax revenue of the equipment manufacturing industry and promoting the tax collection and management of the special equipment manufacturing industry and the general equipment manufacturing industry.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：云南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F812.42;F406.7

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