【摘要】：電力行業(yè)是支撐我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)發(fā)展的基礎(chǔ)行業(yè)和公用事業(yè),與國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展周期基本保持一致。隨著繼續(xù)深入的電力改革,電力資本市場(chǎng)不斷發(fā)展,壟斷逐漸被打破,投資主體呈現(xiàn)出多元化,電力公司為了謀求更大的發(fā)展,收購(gòu)兼并、資產(chǎn)重組、上市融資等活動(dòng)轟轟烈烈地發(fā)展起來(lái),并日益引起人們的重視,確定電力上市公司價(jià)值,為電力上市公司的交易提供依據(jù),成為資本市場(chǎng)的熱點(diǎn)和難點(diǎn)。面對(duì)煤炭、石油等常規(guī)能源存在的污染問題,合理開發(fā)與利用新能源十分重要。我國(guó)大力支持新能源的發(fā)展,國(guó)內(nèi)發(fā)電企業(yè)積極響應(yīng)國(guó)家政策,改變能源結(jié)構(gòu),從火電逐漸向新能源轉(zhuǎn)變,即使火電還在很長(zhǎng)一段時(shí)間內(nèi)占主導(dǎo)地位,但是新能源的比例逐步提升。在新能源結(jié)構(gòu)下,企業(yè)價(jià)值也將受到影響。在此背景下本文研究能源結(jié)構(gòu)的變動(dòng)對(duì)發(fā)電企業(yè)價(jià)值評(píng)估的影響情況。本文通過(guò)對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)的回顧,從整體上闡述了企業(yè)價(jià)值評(píng)估的理論方法,確定了企業(yè)價(jià)值在評(píng)估中的含義。針對(duì)我國(guó)新能源的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,具體研究了五家上市發(fā)電企業(yè)能源結(jié)構(gòu),發(fā)現(xiàn)新能源比例逐漸提升,同時(shí)對(duì)比股票價(jià)格與能源結(jié)構(gòu)的關(guān)系,認(rèn)為市場(chǎng)對(duì)于新能源發(fā)展有積極預(yù)期,通過(guò)分析新能源和火電的凈資產(chǎn)收益率以及總資產(chǎn)報(bào)酬率,得出新能源發(fā)展對(duì)企業(yè)價(jià)值存在一定的影響的結(jié)論。通過(guò)各類資產(chǎn)金額的比例確定企業(yè)資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu),并通過(guò)相關(guān)性分析確定能源結(jié)構(gòu)的變動(dòng)與企業(yè)現(xiàn)金利潤(rùn)之間的關(guān)系,同時(shí)采用因素分析法確定資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)、企業(yè)總資產(chǎn)以及火電的現(xiàn)金利潤(rùn)率與新能源資產(chǎn)現(xiàn)金利潤(rùn)率分別對(duì)于企業(yè)績(jī)效的影響,本文認(rèn)為資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)目前對(duì)于企業(yè)績(jī)效有一定的抑制作用,但是抑制作用逐漸降低,因此未來(lái)發(fā)展前景樂觀。最后,本文采用收益法分別預(yù)測(cè)新能源結(jié)構(gòu)下企業(yè)現(xiàn)金流量,折現(xiàn)后得出企業(yè)價(jià)值,根據(jù)企業(yè)價(jià)值的評(píng)估結(jié)果,確定新能源發(fā)展對(duì)企業(yè)價(jià)值的影響并同樣采用因素分析法確定每年資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)于企業(yè)現(xiàn)金流量的影響,通過(guò)折現(xiàn)確定資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)企業(yè)價(jià)值的影響,得出結(jié)論資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)企業(yè)價(jià)值存在一定的影響,目前資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)于企業(yè)價(jià)值存在抑制作用,但是隨著新能源的不斷發(fā)展,資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)企業(yè)價(jià)值抑制作用減輕,因此發(fā)展新能源對(duì)企業(yè)價(jià)值存在積極的作用。本文認(rèn)為目前新能源的發(fā)展對(duì)于提升企業(yè)價(jià)值作用不夠明顯,但是從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)角度看,市場(chǎng)對(duì)于新能源的發(fā)展持有積極態(tài)度,同時(shí)新能源發(fā)展可以提升企業(yè)內(nèi)在價(jià)值,對(duì)于企業(yè)具有重要意義。本文旨在通過(guò)分析能源結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)企業(yè)價(jià)值的影響,了解發(fā)展新能源意義,并為我國(guó)新能源的發(fā)展提出建議。
[Abstract]:The electric power industry is the basic industry and public utility which supports the economic and social development of our country, and basically keeps in line with the development cycle of the national economy. With the further electric power reform, the power capital market continues to develop, the monopoly is gradually broken down, and the investors are diversified. In order to seek greater development, the electric power companies acquire and annex, reorganize their assets. The activities such as listing and financing have developed rapidly and have attracted more and more attention. It has become a hot and difficult point in the capital market to determine the value of the listed power companies and to provide the basis for the trading of the listed companies. It is very important to develop and utilize new energy reasonably in the face of pollution problems of conventional energy such as coal and petroleum. Our country vigorously supports the development of new energy, domestic power generation enterprises actively respond to national policies, change the energy structure, and gradually change from thermal power to new energy, even though thermal power still dominates for a long time. But the proportion of new energy is rising. Under the new energy structure, the enterprise value will also be affected. In this context, this paper studies the impact of energy structure changes on the value assessment of power generation enterprises. Based on the review of relevant literature at home and abroad, this paper expounds the theory and method of enterprise value evaluation, and determines the meaning of enterprise value in evaluation. In view of the current situation of new energy development in China, the energy structure of five listed power generation enterprises is studied in detail, and it is found that the proportion of new energy is gradually increasing. At the same time, comparing the relationship between stock price and energy structure, it is considered that the market has positive expectations for the development of new energy. By analyzing the rate of return on net assets and the return on total assets of new energy and thermal power, it is concluded that the development of new energy has a certain influence on the enterprise value. The enterprise asset structure is determined by the proportion of all kinds of assets, the relationship between the change of energy structure and the cash profit of the enterprise is determined by correlation analysis, and the asset structure is determined by factor analysis. The total assets, the cash profit margin of thermal power plant and the cash profit rate of new energy assets affect the enterprise performance respectively. This paper holds that the asset structure has a certain inhibitory effect on the enterprise performance, but the inhibition effect is gradually reduced. Therefore, the future development prospects are optimistic. Finally, the paper uses the income method to predict the cash flow of the enterprise under the new energy structure, and obtains the enterprise value after discounted, according to the evaluation result of the enterprise value. To determine the influence of new energy development on enterprise value and the influence of annual asset structure on enterprise cash flow, and to determine the influence of asset structure on enterprise value by discounting. It is concluded that the asset structure has a certain influence on the enterprise value. At present, the asset structure has a restraining effect on the enterprise value, but with the development of new energy, the inhibition effect of the asset structure on the enterprise value is reduced. Therefore, the development of new energy has a positive effect on enterprise value. This paper argues that the development of new energy is not obvious enough to enhance the value of enterprises, but in the long run, the market has a positive attitude towards the development of new energy, and the development of new energy can enhance the intrinsic value of enterprises. It is of great significance to enterprises. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the influence of energy structure on enterprise value, to understand the significance of developing new energy, and to put forward some suggestions for the development of new energy in China.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)(北京)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F406.7;F426.61

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