本文選題：財(cái)務(wù)分析風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià) + 計(jì)分卡�。� 參考：《河南工業(yè)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：進(jìn)口汽車近年來遇到了前所未有的銷售危機(jī),包括大眾、現(xiàn)代、起亞等品牌在內(nèi)的車型競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力下降,銷量大幅下滑,分銷渠道開始混亂,不斷有經(jīng)銷商開始關(guān)�；蛲司W(wǎng)。本人在普華永道(北京分所)實(shí)習(xí)期間,為進(jìn)口大眾汽車銷售端提供財(cái)務(wù)審計(jì)和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制,能夠較全面地掌握經(jīng)營財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù),并能夠較為自主地對(duì)其進(jìn)行分析,提出自己的見解。本文以傳統(tǒng)財(cái)務(wù)分析方法為基礎(chǔ),針對(duì)汽車行業(yè)的特點(diǎn),選取了更加細(xì)化的財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo),例如市場(chǎng)營銷費(fèi)用率、息稅折舊前利潤等。并且從進(jìn)口大眾汽車公司管理層的角度,在傳統(tǒng)財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)分析的基礎(chǔ)上,加入了管理會(huì)計(jì)的分析方法及理念。使財(cái)務(wù)分析不再僅僅局限于財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表的數(shù)字之上,而是更加注重業(yè)務(wù)、注重經(jīng)營管理本質(zhì),更能抓住核心環(huán)節(jié)。經(jīng)營業(yè)務(wù)的財(cái)務(wù)分析涵蓋了盈利分析、營運(yùn)效率,覆蓋到資本來源、資本利用、流動(dòng)性分析等方面,運(yùn)用趨勢(shì)分析法、比率分析法、因素分析法對(duì)財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行研究。在分析盈利能力時(shí),針對(duì)汽車銷售行業(yè)的時(shí)效性和季節(jié)性特點(diǎn),本文選取了2016年1季度數(shù)據(jù)作為主要分析對(duì)象,并加入2015年1季度、2季度、3季度、4季度數(shù)據(jù)作為對(duì)比分析。在分析運(yùn)營效率時(shí),針對(duì)新車周轉(zhuǎn)率等指標(biāo)采用全國分區(qū)域研究的方法,將全國分為北區(qū)、中區(qū)、南區(qū)、東區(qū)、西區(qū)共5個(gè)區(qū)域。在進(jìn)行流動(dòng)性分析時(shí),選取了最長時(shí)間跨度,最細(xì)致數(shù)據(jù)樣本,即涵蓋了2013-2015各年4個(gè)季度和2016年1季度共13個(gè)財(cái)務(wù)時(shí)期。分析發(fā)現(xiàn),進(jìn)口大眾汽車整體新車銷售能力大幅提升,營銷費(fèi)用控制凸顯成效,整體銷售利潤率穩(wěn)步上升,并于本季度實(shí)現(xiàn)盈利。但售后業(yè)務(wù)、精品附件盈利能力下降,二手車業(yè)務(wù)盈利能力停滯不前。短期償債風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較大,流動(dòng)比率未見改善,營運(yùn)資本仍為負(fù)值。分區(qū)域看,西區(qū)存在短期償債風(fēng)險(xiǎn),中區(qū)、南區(qū)存在長期償債風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。而東區(qū)在短期和長期中均表現(xiàn)出較大償債風(fēng)險(xiǎn),并且經(jīng)營能力偏低,需重點(diǎn)關(guān)注。然后建立計(jì)分卡風(fēng)險(xiǎn)模型,通過計(jì)分卡的方式對(duì)所有經(jīng)銷商進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià),篩選出得分最低的5家經(jīng)銷商,并認(rèn)定為高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)經(jīng)銷商,而其中的3家問題最嚴(yán)重,短期內(nèi)存在退網(wǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。最后本文針對(duì)上述存在風(fēng)險(xiǎn),給出了指導(dǎo)建議。
[Abstract]:Imported cars have faced an unprecedented sales crisis in recent years, with models such as Volkswagen, Hyundai and Kia falling in competitiveness, sales falling sharply, distribution channels starting to mess up, and dealers closing or disconnecting. During my internship at PricewaterhouseCoopers (Beijing Branch), I provided financial audit and risk control for the sales end of imported Volkswagen. I was able to master the operating financial data in a more comprehensive way, and I was able to analyze it more autonomously. Put forward one's own opinion. Based on the traditional financial analysis method, this paper selects more detailed financial indexes, such as marketing expense rate, profit before interest, tax and depreciation, according to the characteristics of automobile industry. And from the point of view of the management of imported Volkswagen Company, on the basis of traditional financial accounting analysis, the analysis method and idea of management accounting are added. So that the financial analysis is not only limited to the number of financial statements, but more attention to business, management and management essence, more grasp the core link. The financial analysis of business includes profit analysis, operation efficiency, capital source, capital utilization, liquidity analysis and so on. It uses trend analysis, ratio analysis and factor analysis to study financial data. In the analysis of profitability, aiming at the timeliness and seasonal characteristics of auto sales industry, this paper selects the data of the first quarter of 2016 as the main analysis object, and adds the data of the third quarter and the fourth quarter of the second quarter of 2015 as the comparative analysis. In the analysis of operation efficiency, according to the new car turnover rate and other indicators of the national sub-regional research method, the whole country is divided into North, Central, Southern, Eastern, Western, a total of five regions. In the liquidity analysis, the longest span of time, the most detailed data sample, covering the 2013-2015 four quarters and the first quarter of 2016 a total of 13 financial periods. The analysis found that imported Volkswagen's overall new car sales capacity improved significantly, marketing expense control highlighted the effectiveness, overall sales profit margins rose steadily, and in the quarter to achieve profit. But after-sale business, boutique accessories profitability decline, second-hand car business profitability stagnated. Short-term debt servicing risk is greater, the current ratio has not improved, working capital is still negative. Sub-regional point of view, west there is a short-term repayment risk, central, southern region has long-term solvency risk. In the short-term and long-term, the eastern region has a higher risk of debt service, and its operating capacity is low, so it needs to be paid more attention. Then the risk model of scorecard is set up to evaluate the risk of all dealers through the method of scorecard, and five dealers with the lowest score are screened out, and they are regarded as high risk dealers, and three of them have the most serious problems. In the short term, there is a risk of network withdrawal. Finally, the paper gives some guidance suggestions for the above risks.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河南工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F406.7;F416.471;F752.61

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