發(fā)布時間：2018-05-01 22:41

  本文選題：產(chǎn)能過剩 + 股權(quán)集中度　； 參考：《重慶工商大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：《中國產(chǎn)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)2015年度報告》指出,2015年我國產(chǎn)能過剩的矛盾較上一年更為嚴(yán)重,由過度投資引發(fā)的產(chǎn)能過剩已經(jīng)對我國的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生巨大的影響,產(chǎn)能過�？偭康募觿『驮絹碓蕉噙^剩行業(yè)的增加,已成為阻礙我國經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定增長的巨大阻力。2015年,工信部公布我國產(chǎn)能過剩行業(yè)有鋼鐵、煤炭、電解鋁、水泥、平板玻璃、船舶等行業(yè)。同時,近年來我國正在不斷著力推進(jìn)落實供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革,并且圍繞“三去一補(bǔ)一降”五大任務(wù)推進(jìn)方案落地,使得去產(chǎn)能成為當(dāng)務(wù)之急。因此結(jié)合該背景,本文基于產(chǎn)能過剩類上市公司當(dāng)前普遍存在的過度投資現(xiàn)象,探尋自由現(xiàn)金流與過度投資的關(guān)系,并引入股權(quán)集中度,探尋三者之間的關(guān)系,試圖為緩解我國產(chǎn)能過剩類上市公司的過度投資問題提供建議。本文首先著眼于國內(nèi)外現(xiàn)有的研究,對股權(quán)集中度、自由現(xiàn)金流與過度投資的相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行分析,為本文的研究奠定理論基礎(chǔ)和提供指導(dǎo)方向;接著在自由現(xiàn)金流假說、委托代理理論和信息不對稱理論等理論基礎(chǔ)上,對股權(quán)集中度、自由現(xiàn)金流與過度投資相互之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行詳細(xì)的理論分析,并提出相應(yīng)的假設(shè)。在實證部分,本文選用產(chǎn)能過剩類上市公司2008—2015年共824個平衡面板數(shù)據(jù)作為研究樣本,借鑒Richardson模型來對過度投資進(jìn)行衡量,即取模型殘差作為被解釋變量過度投資,進(jìn)而選取了股權(quán)集中度、自由現(xiàn)金流以及控制變量構(gòu)建多元回歸模型,借助Stata統(tǒng)計軟件進(jìn)行多種分析后得出結(jié)論:自由現(xiàn)金流與過度投資呈顯著正相關(guān)關(guān)系;當(dāng)公司自由現(xiàn)金流為正時,更容易發(fā)生過度投資的行為;股權(quán)集中度可以有效抑制自由現(xiàn)金流與過度投資之間的相關(guān)關(guān)系。最后,本文根據(jù)研究結(jié)論,為我國產(chǎn)能過剩類上市公司的轉(zhuǎn)型升級提出了切實可行的建議,主要表明我國產(chǎn)能過剩類上市公司在運營過程中應(yīng)合理運用自由現(xiàn)金流和有效把控股權(quán)集中度,且國家應(yīng)進(jìn)一步深化改革,繼續(xù)淘汰落后產(chǎn)能并消化過剩產(chǎn)能;同時本文文末也分析了本文研究存在的局限性與未來研究方向。
[Abstract]:The "Annual report on China's Industrial economy 2015" points out that the contradiction of overcapacity in China in 2015 is more serious than that in the previous year, and overcapacity caused by overinvestment has had a huge impact on China's macro-economy. The aggravation of total overcapacity and the increase of more and more overcapacity industries have become a great obstacle to the steady growth of our economy. In 2015, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced that China's overcapacity industries include steel, coal, electrolytic aluminum, cement and flat glass. Shipping and other industries At the same time, in recent years, our country is constantly pushing forward the implementation of supply-side structural reform, and focusing on the "three go, one supplement, one drop" five major tasks to promote the landing of the plan, making deproductivity become a top priority. Therefore, based on the overinvestment phenomenon of overcapacity listed companies, this paper explores the relationship between free cash flow and overinvestment, and introduces equity concentration to explore the relationship between them. This paper attempts to provide suggestions for alleviating the overinvestment of overcapacity listed companies in China. This paper first focuses on the existing research at home and abroad, and analyzes the relevant literature on equity concentration, free cash flow and overinvestment, which lays a theoretical foundation and provides guidance for this study; then, in the free cash flow hypothesis, On the basis of principal-agent theory and information asymmetry theory, this paper makes a detailed theoretical analysis of the relationship among ownership concentration, free cash flow and overinvestment, and puts forward the corresponding assumptions. In the empirical part, this paper selects 824 equilibrium panel data of overcapacity listed companies from 2008 to 2015 as the research sample, and uses Richardson model to measure the overinvestment, that is, taking the residual of the model as the explained variable of overinvestment. Then we select the ownership concentration, free cash flow and control variables to build multiple regression model, with the help of Stata statistical software to carry out a variety of analysis: free cash flow and overinvestment has a significant positive correlation; When the company's free cash flow is positive, it is more likely to overinvest, and equity concentration can effectively restrain the correlation between free cash flow and overinvestment. Finally, according to the research conclusions, this paper puts forward practical suggestions for the transformation and upgrading of overcapacity listed companies in China. It mainly indicates that China's overcapacity listed companies should make rational use of free cash flow and effective concentration of controlling equity in the course of operation, and the country should further deepen the reform, continue to eliminate backward production capacity and digest excess capacity; At the end of this paper, the limitations of this study and the future research direction are also analyzed.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶工商大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F406.7;F425

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本文編號：1831315