本文選題：火電 + 建設(shè)項目　； 參考：《華北電力大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：火力發(fā)電現(xiàn)今仍然是我國電力能源來源的主力。在我國其他電力發(fā)電量占全部電力發(fā)電量的比重僅為30%左右�；痣娖髽I(yè)的發(fā)展對我國國民經(jīng)濟社會的發(fā)展具有重大的作用。由于火力發(fā)電具有發(fā)電量大、技術(shù)成熟、廠址限制少等特點,在相當(dāng)長的一段時期內(nèi),火力發(fā)電的發(fā)展和建設(shè)仍然是一項重要的議題。對火電建設(shè)項目融資風(fēng)險的分析和管理,有利于降低火電建設(shè)項目的建設(shè)成本,對于火電建設(shè)的發(fā)展和項目融資的多樣性具有重要作用。本文從動態(tài)的角度來對火電建設(shè)項目融資風(fēng)險進行分析和預(yù)測,對于火電項目的建設(shè)和火電企業(yè)的發(fā)展具有一定的理論和現(xiàn)實意義。任何項目的建設(shè)都會面臨到經(jīng)濟、社會、技術(shù)、政治等相關(guān)的風(fēng)險,火電建設(shè)項目在具有共性風(fēng)險的同時,也具有其獨特性,并且在風(fēng)險的影響因子方面也具有不同于其他建設(shè)項目的特點。對風(fēng)險缺乏合理分析和預(yù)測的項目,很容易出現(xiàn)偏差,從而造成資源的浪費和企業(yè)或者國家的損失。經(jīng)過對文獻(xiàn)的閱讀和整理,本人發(fā)現(xiàn),現(xiàn)今對火電建設(shè)項目融資風(fēng)險的研究,對風(fēng)險的動態(tài)性考慮較少�；痣娊ㄔO(shè)項目融資風(fēng)險是不斷變化的,對其研究如果僅僅限定在某一個時段,就會對火電建設(shè)項目決策產(chǎn)生不利的影響。本文將火電建設(shè)項目融資的風(fēng)險看成一個完整的系統(tǒng),并對系統(tǒng)進行細(xì)分,形成不同的風(fēng)險子系統(tǒng),對子系統(tǒng)之間的關(guān)系進行研究和分析,以一種動態(tài)的視角來分析項目融資風(fēng)險的變化。首先分析了現(xiàn)今對火電建設(shè)項目融資風(fēng)險研究的背景和意義,進一步對國內(nèi)外相關(guān)研究現(xiàn)狀進行分析和整理,考慮到風(fēng)險的動態(tài)性問題,對國內(nèi)國外相關(guān)論文進行閱讀和分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)相關(guān)的研究較少,從而提出系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)的方法和優(yōu)勢,以及對風(fēng)險動態(tài)性研究的重要性。其次建立了火電建設(shè)項目融資動態(tài)風(fēng)險的系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模型,并將其細(xì)分為不同的風(fēng)險子系統(tǒng),對各個子系統(tǒng)的影響因子以及各個子系統(tǒng)之間的相互影響進行分析,通過不同的關(guān)系建立相應(yīng)的邏輯函數(shù)。最后對所建立的模型進行實證研究,表明火電建設(shè)項目融資動態(tài)風(fēng)險模型具有一定的合理性和科學(xué)性,同時為火電建設(shè)項目融資的風(fēng)險規(guī)避提出了合理化建議。
[Abstract]:Thermal power generation is still the main source of power energy in China. In our country, the proportion of other electric power generation is only about 30%. The development of thermal power enterprises plays an important role in the development of our national economy and society. The development and construction of thermal power generation is still an important issue for a long period of time due to its characteristics of large power generation, mature technology and limited site. The analysis and management of the financing risk of thermal power construction project will help to reduce the construction cost of thermal power construction project and play an important role in the development of thermal power construction and the diversity of project financing. This paper analyzes and predicts the financing risk of thermal power construction project from the dynamic point of view, which has certain theoretical and practical significance for the construction of thermal power project and the development of thermal power enterprise. The construction of any project will face economic, social, technological, political and other related risks. Thermal power construction projects have their own unique characteristics as well as common risks. And the risk factors also have different characteristics from other construction projects. Projects that lack reasonable analysis and prediction of risks are prone to deviations, resulting in waste of resources and loss of enterprises or countries. After reading and sorting out the literature, I find that the research on the financing risk of thermal power construction project has little consideration on the dynamic nature of the risk. The financing risk of thermal power construction project is constantly changing. If the research is limited to a certain period of time, it will have a negative impact on the decision of thermal power construction project. In this paper, the risk of thermal power construction project financing is regarded as a complete system, and the system is subdivided to form different risk subsystems, and the relationship between the subsystems is studied and analyzed. This paper analyzes the change of project financing risk from a dynamic perspective. First of all, it analyzes the background and significance of the research on the financing risk of thermal power construction project, and further analyzes the current research situation at home and abroad, considering the dynamic problem of the risk, reading and analyzing the related papers at home and abroad. There are few related researches, so the methods and advantages of system dynamics and the importance of risk dynamics research are put forward. Secondly, the system dynamic model of dynamic risk of thermal power construction project financing is established, and it is subdivided into different risk subsystems. The influence factors of each subsystem and the interaction between each subsystem are analyzed. The corresponding logical functions are established through different relationships. Finally, the empirical study on the established model shows that the dynamic risk model of thermal power construction project financing is reasonable and scientific, and puts forward some reasonable suggestions for the risk avoidance of thermal power construction project financing.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F426.61;F406.7

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