本文關(guān)鍵詞： 環(huán)境的不確定性 能源行業(yè) 資本結(jié)構(gòu) 系統(tǒng)GMM　出處：《江蘇大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：經(jīng)濟(jì)“新常態(tài)”引領(lǐng)能源行業(yè)的發(fā)展進(jìn)入“新常態(tài)”,經(jīng)濟(jì)“新常態(tài)”要求加快構(gòu)建清潔、高效、安全和可持續(xù)的現(xiàn)代能源體系的進(jìn)程,使得能源行業(yè)的發(fā)展形勢發(fā)生了一些明顯的變化,能源企業(yè)面臨著眾多挑戰(zhàn),因此能源企業(yè)必須尋求新的突破點(diǎn),以獲得發(fā)展出路,保持平穩(wěn)發(fā)展。環(huán)境不確定性增加了企業(yè)各種戰(zhàn)略失敗的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),以往關(guān)于環(huán)境不確定的研究多集中于外部的客觀因素,而忽略企業(yè)內(nèi)部的因素。管理者作為決策者在管理中處于主導(dǎo)地位,其決策是否恰當(dāng),對企業(yè)的發(fā)展水平有實(shí)質(zhì)性的影響。與其他行業(yè)相比,我國能源行業(yè)的發(fā)展受環(huán)境的影響比較大,作為國家的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè),能源行業(yè)的健康發(fā)展對保障民生、市場經(jīng)濟(jì)的穩(wěn)定運(yùn)行具有深刻影響。因此,研究環(huán)境的不確定性對能源行業(yè)的健康發(fā)展非常有意義。近年來,針對能源行業(yè)資本結(jié)構(gòu)的研究大多還是基于微觀視角,同時(shí)考慮宏觀和微觀視角的文獻(xiàn)非常少。論文基于宏觀和微觀視角,研究環(huán)境的不確定性對能源行業(yè)資本結(jié)構(gòu)決策的影響。論文先對有關(guān)資本結(jié)構(gòu)的影響因素進(jìn)行文獻(xiàn)綜述,并分析了我國當(dāng)前能源上市公司的發(fā)展?fàn)顩r和融資狀況。論文以MM理論、權(quán)衡理論、委托代理理論、市場擇時(shí)理論和信息不對稱理論為理論基礎(chǔ),采用GDP季度數(shù)據(jù)的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差衡量外部環(huán)境的不確定性,采用營業(yè)收入連續(xù)三年的滾動(dòng)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差來衡量內(nèi)部環(huán)境的不確定性,以盈利能力、企業(yè)規(guī)模、成長性和資產(chǎn)擔(dān)保能力為控制變量,根據(jù)證監(jiān)會(huì)行業(yè)分類,選取了我國能源上市公司2008-2015年在滬深兩市A股正常上市交易的107家上市公司作為研究樣本,對影響能源上市公司資本結(jié)構(gòu)的環(huán)境的不確定性進(jìn)行了實(shí)證研究。研究結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn):能源上市公司的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率呈現(xiàn)上升趨勢,外部環(huán)境的不確定性對資本結(jié)構(gòu)具有顯著的負(fù)向影響,內(nèi)部環(huán)境的不確定性對資本結(jié)構(gòu)也是顯著的負(fù)向影響。盈利能力與資本結(jié)構(gòu)呈顯著負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系,企業(yè)規(guī)模與資本結(jié)構(gòu)呈顯著正相關(guān)關(guān)系,而成長性和資產(chǎn)擔(dān)保能力與資本結(jié)構(gòu)沒有顯著聯(lián)系。最后,論文根據(jù)實(shí)證結(jié)果,結(jié)合能源行業(yè)的行業(yè)特征,提出一系列政策建議,并對研究的局限性和展望進(jìn)行了闡述。
[Abstract]:The economic "new normal" leads the development of the energy industry into the "new normal", and the "new normal" of the economy calls for speeding up the process of constructing a clean, efficient, safe and sustainable modern energy system. The development situation of the energy industry has undergone some obvious changes, energy enterprises are facing many challenges, so energy enterprises must seek new breakthrough points in order to obtain a way out. Environmental uncertainty increases the risk of strategic failure. Previous studies on environmental uncertainty have focused on external objective factors. And ignore the factors within the enterprise. Managers as decision makers in the management of the dominant position, its decision-making is appropriate, has a substantial impact on the level of enterprise development. Compared with other industries. The development of energy industry in China is greatly affected by the environment. As the pillar industry of the country, the healthy development of the energy industry has a profound impact on the protection of people's livelihood and the stable operation of the market economy. The uncertainty of the environment is of great significance to the healthy development of the energy industry. In recent years, most of the research on the capital structure of the energy industry is based on the micro perspective. There are very few papers considering both macro and micro perspectives. The thesis is based on macro and micro perspectives. This paper studies the influence of environmental uncertainty on the capital structure decision of energy industry. Firstly, the paper reviews the influencing factors of capital structure. The paper is based on MM theory, trade-off theory, principal-agent theory, market timing theory and information asymmetry theory. The standard deviation of GDP quarterly data is used to measure the uncertainty of external environment, and the rolling standard deviation of operating income for three consecutive years is used to measure the uncertainty of internal environment. Growth and asset guarantee ability are control variables, according to the industry classification of CSRC. In this paper, 107 listed companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen A-shares from 2008 to 2015 were selected as the research samples. This paper makes an empirical study on the uncertainty of the capital structure of energy listed companies. The results show that the asset-liability ratio of energy listed companies is on the rise. The uncertainty of the external environment has a significant negative impact on the capital structure, and the uncertainty of the internal environment has a significant negative impact on the capital structure. There is a significant negative correlation between profitability and the capital structure. There is a significant positive correlation between enterprise size and capital structure, while growth and asset guarantee ability have no significant relationship with capital structure. Finally, according to the empirical results, the paper combines the industry characteristics of energy industry. A series of policy suggestions are put forward, and the limitations and prospects of the research are expounded.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：江蘇大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F406.7;F426.2

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