本文關鍵詞：銀行貸款對房地產(chǎn)上市公司價值的實證研究，，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

        最早關于資本結構理論的研究始于大衛(wèi)·杜蘭特,他的理論分別是凈收益理論、凈營業(yè)收益理論和傳統(tǒng)折衷理論。凈收益理論認為增加負債可以降低企業(yè)的資本成本,從而提高公司價值；凈營業(yè)收益理論認為債務的增加會因為抵稅效應而降低加權資本成本,但是也會增加權益成本,二者相抵消得出了債務與資本結構無關的結論；傳統(tǒng)折衷理論是二者的結合,認為存在一個最優(yōu)的資本結構,當負債帶來的抵稅收益和增加的權益成本相抵消時,企業(yè)價值達到了最大。大衛(wèi)的研究為后來資本結構理論的發(fā)展奠定了基礎；MM理論首次將資本結構與企業(yè)價值聯(lián)系起來,讓人們認識到可以通過選擇一個合適的資本結構來提高企業(yè)價值。但是MM理論有著較為嚴格的假設條件,因此沒有很強的適用性。MM理論的研究使資本結構理論真正的成為一種科學理論,后人的研究都是將MM理論的假設條件放寬,拓展出新的領域；信息不對稱理論以及委托代理理論的發(fā)展為資本結構理論的研究開辟了新的研究方向,這一時期的理論成為新資本結構理論。其中具有代表性的是代理成本理論、權衡理論以及優(yōu)序融資理論。公司價值是企業(yè)利用有限資源在一定時期內(nèi)資產(chǎn)運營、財務效益、資本保值增值等的經(jīng)營效果,與企業(yè)績效不同,更關注企業(yè)相關主體的利益。衡量方法有賬面法、市場法、收益法和期權法。其中廣泛使用的是市場法和收益法。市場法多用托賓Q來衡量公司價值,托賓Q考慮到企業(yè)當前和未來的價值,準確度更高,但是基于我國目前資本市場不完善,股市長期弱勢的現(xiàn)狀,研究效果不佳。收益法多使用EVA(經(jīng)濟增加值)衡量公司價值,該方法不僅考察了權益資本成本對公司價值的影響,同時還將股東財富與企業(yè)決策相聯(lián)系,更能反映企業(yè)真實的價值,但是因為計算方法的復雜以及應用范圍有限,在我國沒有被廣泛使用,我國的研究學者多用托賓Q來表示公司價值。目前我國學者對資本結構理論的研究很少,多數(shù)是對資本結構理論的應用,或者研究資本結構的影響因素,或者將資本結構細分為股權和債權,研究二者與公司價值的關系。自從我國開始實行住房體制改革后,房地產(chǎn)業(yè)蒸蒸日上。房地產(chǎn)業(yè)是一個關系到國計民生的行業(yè),與建筑業(yè)、鋼鐵、建材等行業(yè)關聯(lián)度高,具有資金密集型、資金回收期長、資產(chǎn)負債率高的行業(yè)特征,由于我國的企業(yè)債券市場不發(fā)達,房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)上市融資的門檻高,導致我國房地產(chǎn)業(yè)嚴重依賴銀行信貸資金,一旦企業(yè)資金斷裂將會給銀行帶來嚴重的流動性風險。為了抑制房地產(chǎn)業(yè)帶來的負效應,金融危機以來國家開始實行一系列嚴格的政策來調控房地產(chǎn)業(yè),倒閉的中小房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)數(shù)目開始上升,大規(guī)模的房地產(chǎn)上市公司開始尋求銀行信貸資金以外的融資方式來謀求自身的發(fā)展�；诜康禺a(chǎn)業(yè)的重要性,本文研究了銀行貸款對房地產(chǎn)上市公司價值的影響,通過揭示房地產(chǎn)上市公司的貸款規(guī)模及結構現(xiàn)狀,為優(yōu)化房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)資本結構進而提高公司價值提出了建議。本文以2006年底在滬深A股上市的65家房地產(chǎn)上市公司為研究對象,收集了2006-2010年五年的數(shù)據(jù),得到了325個觀測值。延續(xù)前人的做法,以托賓Q和市凈率作為被解釋變量衡量公司價值,以銀行貸款規(guī)模和期限結構作為解釋變量,同時選取公司規(guī)模、成長性、盈利能力、股權集中度作為控制變量,建立多元線性回歸模型,分析了銀行貸款規(guī)模和結構對房地產(chǎn)上市公司價值的影響。為了清晰的闡述問題,本文從國際和國內(nèi)兩個維度總結了前人的研究成果。目前西方的資本結構理論已經(jīng)日臻成熟,所以理論介紹以西方為主,國內(nèi)研究的側重點是對西方資本結構理論的應用。本文重點研究銀行貸款對公司價值的影響,所以在總結前人的研究成果后,從代理理論、信息不對稱理論和權衡理論三個方面詳細分析了債務代理成本如何影響公司價值；接著詳細介紹了房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的現(xiàn)狀,房地產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展時間比較短,但是因為其關聯(lián)度高,特別是和銀行關系的緊密,使政府對房地產(chǎn)業(yè)一直有比較頻繁的調控。房地產(chǎn)業(yè)整體資產(chǎn)負債率高、融資渠道單一,對銀行信貸資金的依賴使較多的風險都集中在銀行。經(jīng)過理論的分析和對實際的把握,第四章是銀行貸款對房地產(chǎn)上市公司價值影響的實證分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)銀行貸款規(guī)模與企業(yè)價值成負相關關系,并且通過了99%的置信水平檢驗,這是因為銀行貸款作為房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)的主要融資方式,一定范圍內(nèi)可以增加公司的價值,但是超過一定的范圍會增加企業(yè)的償債風險,增加破產(chǎn)的概率,從而降低公司價值；不論是以托賓Q還是以市凈率作為被解釋變量,短期貸款與公司價值都是負相關關系,長期貸款與公司價值正相關,并且二者在較高的顯著性水平上通過了檢驗,這與假設不符。根據(jù)西方資本結構理論的解釋,縮短債務可以減少委托代理成本,減少企業(yè)的過度投資和投資不足的問題,從而提高公司價值。但是我國房地產(chǎn)上市公司長期依靠短期債務,而房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)資金主要用于購買固定資產(chǎn)等長期資產(chǎn),資產(chǎn)和負債的長期不匹配,使房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)隱藏著巨大的財務風險,短期債務規(guī)模過于龐大,減少代理成本作用被破產(chǎn)成本相抵消,從而降低了公司價值；企業(yè)規(guī)模與被解釋變量是顯著的負相關關系,與假設不相符,盡管規(guī)模增加可以通過多樣化的經(jīng)營來降低經(jīng)營風險,但是龐大的資產(chǎn)規(guī)模也會給企業(yè)帶來較大的管理成本,從而影響公司的利潤,降低公司價值；股權集中度與被解釋變量是顯著的負相關關系,與假設相符,因為房地產(chǎn)上市公司股權集中在國有股手中,多級代理關系的存在減弱了國有股的監(jiān)督作用,形成了“內(nèi)部人控制”,從而影響公司的治理效應,降低公司價值；企業(yè)盈利能力與成長性對企業(yè)價值的影響不顯著,這與假設不符合,可能更多的投資者對房地產(chǎn)上市公司做短線操作,沒有關注企業(yè)的長期發(fā)展能力。針對房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)貸款規(guī)模及結構不合理的現(xiàn)狀,提出以下幾點建議：一、減少銀行貸款的規(guī)模,提高直接融資的比重,可以從加快債券市場的發(fā)展和放寬股權融資的條件來解決；二、積極發(fā)展房地產(chǎn)信托投資產(chǎn)品,著力推廣房地產(chǎn)信托投資基金；三、改變銀行貸款的期限結構,提高長期貸款的比重；四、發(fā)揮企業(yè)的規(guī)模效應；五、強化債權的監(jiān)督機制作用,加強債權的約束力不僅能夠促使房地產(chǎn)上市公司的管理者妥善運用債務資本,同時可以改善公司治理模式；六、培育房地產(chǎn)金融二級市場,積極推動住房抵押貸款的證券化。目的是提高銀行房貸的流動性,降低銀行的系統(tǒng)性風險；七、優(yōu)化房地產(chǎn)上市公司的股權結構；八、完善相關的法律法規(guī)；九、利率市場化；總之,在信貸緊縮的大環(huán)境下,我國房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)融資迫切需要改變?nèi)谫Y渠道單一的局面,建立多層次的房地產(chǎn)融資體系,同時要培育房地產(chǎn)金融二級市場,分散銀行的信貸風險,強化債權的監(jiān)督約束機制,有效的保護債權人的利益,改變股權集中度高的局面,這一切都需要國家法律法規(guī)的保障才能切實有效的進行。國內(nèi)外大部分研究是圍繞債務融資的期限結構來研究與公司價值或者企業(yè)績效的關系,將債務融資按照不同的標準細分,然后建立與公司價值的回歸模型,很少單獨研究銀行貸款這一融資方式與房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)價值的關系。本文的創(chuàng)新點在于將銀行貸款分為短期和長期兩種形式,分別研究它們與企業(yè)價值的關系。不足之處在于沒有將影響房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)的宏觀經(jīng)濟因素考慮在內(nèi),未來的研究可以將GDP、利率等反映宏觀經(jīng)濟的變量引入到模型中,增加模型的說服力,同時本文只研究了銀行貸款對房地產(chǎn)上市公司價值的影響,未來房地產(chǎn)融資產(chǎn)品多樣化后,可以按資金的來源細分,研究不同渠道的資金對房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)價值的影響；最后,本文只對房地產(chǎn)上市公司的數(shù)據(jù)進行了研究,未來的研究可以擴展到非上市公司,來增加實證結果的適用性。

    The earliest capital structure theory began in David Durand, his theory is the net income theory, the net operating income of theory and eclectic theory. Net income theory is that the increase in liabilities can reduce the cost of capital, thereby enhancing the value of the company; net operating income theory suggests that the increase in debt can reduce the weighted cost of capital, but also increases the cost of equity, finally, debt has nothing to do with capital structure; traditional compromise theory is a combination of both, the existence of an optimal capital structure, when the tax credit income brought about by debt offsets the increased cost of equity, the value of the enterprise is maximum. David’s research laid the foundation for the later development of the theory of capital structure. MM theory connects the capital structure with corporate values, People are aware that selecting an appropriate capital structure can enhance enterprise value. MM theory has a more stringent assumption, there is no strong applicability. MM theory made capital structure theory become a real scientific theory, the descendants of the study relax the assumption and expand to new areas. The development of the theory of asymmetric information and principal-agent has opened a new research fields, the theory of this period became the new capital structure theory. The representative theory is agency theory, the trade-off theory and pecking order theory.Since China began the implementation of housing reform, real estate industry has made tremendous development. Real estate has strong correlation degree with a lot of industry, for example, construction, iron and steel, building materials.The industry has characteristics of capital-intensive, the high asset liability rate. Due to China’s corporate bond markets are underdeveloped and high threshold of public financing of real estate enterprises, resulting in China’s real estate industry is heavily dependent on bank credit funds, enterprise funds’fracture will be a serious liquidity risk to the bank. Faced with the financial crisis, countries have begun to implement a strict policy to regulate the real estate industry, the number of closure of small and medium-sized real estate companies began to rise,large-scale real estate listed companies began to seek other funds from different direction to seek their own development. Based on the importance of real estate, paper focus on how bank loans affect the value of listed real estate companies, by revealing the status of the size of bank loan and structure of listed real estate companies, made recommendations for optimizing the capital structure of real estate enterprises, thereby increasing the value of the company.Author selected65listed real estate companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen A shares at the end of2006and collected data for the2006to2010, up to325observations. Continuation of previous practice, the dependent variable is for measuring the value of the company, use Tobin’s Q and book value, the size of bank loan and term structure as independent variables, and selected the size of the company, growth, profitability and ownership concentration as the control variable. The establishment of a multiple linear regression model is to analyze the impact on the value of real estate listed companies.Size of loans for real estate companies and the status of the structure is irrational, the following is my propose:First, reducing the size of bank loans to raise the proportion of direct financing, at the same time, accelerating the development of bond markets and to relaxing the restrictions of equity financing;Second, actively developing the real estate investment trust products, mainly promoting real estate investment trusts; Third, changing the term structure of bank loans, increasing the proportion of long-term loans; Fourth, the scale effect should be considered; Fifth, strengthening the role of creditor oversight mechanisms, strengthening the binding of the claims, not only to promote the managers of listed real estate companies to make use of debt capital, but improving corporate governance; Fifth, nurturing the secondary market for real estate finance, and actively promoting the securitization of home mortgages. The purpose is to improve the liquidity of the mortgage banks, reduce the systemic risk of the bank; Sixth, optimizing the equity structure of listed real estate companies; Seventh, improving relevant laws and regulations; Eighth, the interest rate market. In short, the credit crunch environment, China’s real estate corporate finance has an urgent need to build the multi-level financing channel, nurturing the secondary market of real estate finance to low the banks’credit risk, and strengthening supervision and restraint mechanisms of the claims, in order to protect the interests of creditors effectively, changing the situation of high ownership concentration, the protection of all state laws and regulations can be effective.Most of the studies at home and abroad focus on the relationship between term structure of debt financing and the value of the company or enterprise performance, and then create a regression model.Rarely separately researching the bank loan and the value of real estate enterprises. The innovation of this paper is divided into short-term bank loans and long-term in two forms, respectively, to study their relationship with the enterprise value.The downside is that macroeconomic factors were not included. In future, such as GDP and interest rates which reflects the macroeconomic variables can be introduced into the model, increasing the persuasiveness of the model; when real estate financing product is diversified, research can focus on how funds of the different channels affect the value of the real estate business; Finally, this article only considered listed real estate company’s data, future research can be extended to non-listed companies to increase the applicability of the empirical results.

        銀行貸款對房地產(chǎn)上市公司價值的實證研究

摘要4-8ABSTRACT8-101. 緒論13-17    1.1 研究背景及意義13-14    1.2 研究目標14    1.3 研究方法14    1.4 研究框架14-15    1.5 創(chuàng)新點15    1.6 概念的界定15-172. 國內(nèi)外文獻綜述與理論分析17-32    2.1 國外相關研究17-23        2.1.1 國外資本結構理論17-22        2.1.2 國外資本結構與企業(yè)價值的實證研究22-23    2.2 國內(nèi)關于資本結構與企業(yè)價值的實證研究23-25    2.3 債務融資與企業(yè)價值的研究25-29        2.3.1 國外相關研究25-28        2.3.2 國內(nèi)相關研究28-29    2.4 關于房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)資本結構和企業(yè)價值的研究29-323. 房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀32-43    3.1 房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的特征32-33        3.1.1 資金密集、周期性強32        3.1.2 宏觀經(jīng)濟因素影響較大32-33    3.2 房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展歷程33-34    3.3 房地產(chǎn)上市公司的融資方式34-38    3.4 房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的資本結構特征38-43        3.4.1 資產(chǎn)負債率高38-39        3.4.2 融資渠道單一39-41        3.4.3 短期貸款占比較高41-434. 實證研究43-55    4.1 樣本選取和數(shù)據(jù)來源43-45        4.1.1 樣本選取43-44        4.1.2 數(shù)據(jù)來源44-45    4.2 變量定義和研究假設45-47        4.2.1 變量定義45-46        4.2.2 研究假設46-47    4.3 模型的建立47-48    4.4 實證分析48-55        4.4.1 描述性統(tǒng)計48-51        4.4.2 相關性分析51        4.4.3 回歸分析51-555. 結論及建議55-63    5.1 結論55-56    5.2 提高房地產(chǎn)上市公司價值的建議56-61        5.2.1 減少銀行貸款的規(guī)模,提高直接融資的比重56-57        5.2.2 積極發(fā)展房地產(chǎn)信托投資產(chǎn)品57-58        5.2.3 改變銀行貸款的期限結構,提高長期貸款的比重58        5.2.4 發(fā)揮企業(yè)的規(guī)模效應58-59        5.2.5 強化債權的監(jiān)督機制作用59        5.2.6 培育房地產(chǎn)金融二級市場,積極推動住房抵押貸款的證券化59        5.2.7 優(yōu)化房地產(chǎn)上市公司的股權結構59-60        5.2.8 完善相關的法律法規(guī)60        5.2.9 利率市場化60-61    5.3 研究局限及展望61-63        5.3.1 研究的局限61-62        5.3.2 進一步研究的方向62-63參考文獻63-69后記69-70致謝70

  本文關鍵詞：銀行貸款對房地產(chǎn)上市公司價值的實證研究，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。