本文關(guān)鍵詞：銀行貸款對(duì)房地產(chǎn)上市公司價(jià)值的實(shí)證研究，，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

        最早關(guān)于資本結(jié)構(gòu)理論的研究始于大衛(wèi)·杜蘭特,他的理論分別是凈收益理論、凈營(yíng)業(yè)收益理論和傳統(tǒng)折衷理論。凈收益理論認(rèn)為增加負(fù)債可以降低企業(yè)的資本成本,從而提高公司價(jià)值；凈營(yíng)業(yè)收益理論認(rèn)為債務(wù)的增加會(huì)因?yàn)榈侄愋?yīng)而降低加權(quán)資本成本,但是也會(huì)增加權(quán)益成本,二者相抵消得出了債務(wù)與資本結(jié)構(gòu)無(wú)關(guān)的結(jié)論；傳統(tǒng)折衷理論是二者的結(jié)合,認(rèn)為存在一個(gè)最優(yōu)的資本結(jié)構(gòu),當(dāng)負(fù)債帶來(lái)的抵稅收益和增加的權(quán)益成本相抵消時(shí),企業(yè)價(jià)值達(dá)到了最大。大衛(wèi)的研究為后來(lái)資本結(jié)構(gòu)理論的發(fā)展奠定了基礎(chǔ)；MM理論首次將資本結(jié)構(gòu)與企業(yè)價(jià)值聯(lián)系起來(lái),讓人們認(rèn)識(shí)到可以通過(guò)選擇一個(gè)合適的資本結(jié)構(gòu)來(lái)提高企業(yè)價(jià)值。但是MM理論有著較為嚴(yán)格的假設(shè)條件,因此沒(méi)有很強(qiáng)的適用性。MM理論的研究使資本結(jié)構(gòu)理論真正的成為一種科學(xué)理論,后人的研究都是將MM理論的假設(shè)條件放寬,拓展出新的領(lǐng)域；信息不對(duì)稱(chēng)理論以及委托代理理論的發(fā)展為資本結(jié)構(gòu)理論的研究開(kāi)辟了新的研究方向,這一時(shí)期的理論成為新資本結(jié)構(gòu)理論。其中具有代表性的是代理成本理論、權(quán)衡理論以及優(yōu)序融資理論。公司價(jià)值是企業(yè)利用有限資源在一定時(shí)期內(nèi)資產(chǎn)運(yùn)營(yíng)、財(cái)務(wù)效益、資本保值增值等的經(jīng)營(yíng)效果,與企業(yè)績(jī)效不同,更關(guān)注企業(yè)相關(guān)主體的利益。衡量方法有賬面法、市場(chǎng)法、收益法和期權(quán)法。其中廣泛使用的是市場(chǎng)法和收益法。市場(chǎng)法多用托賓Q來(lái)衡量公司價(jià)值,托賓Q考慮到企業(yè)當(dāng)前和未來(lái)的價(jià)值,準(zhǔn)確度更高,但是基于我國(guó)目前資本市場(chǎng)不完善,股市長(zhǎng)期弱勢(shì)的現(xiàn)狀,研究效果不佳。收益法多使用EVA(經(jīng)濟(jì)增加值)衡量公司價(jià)值,該方法不僅考察了權(quán)益資本成本對(duì)公司價(jià)值的影響,同時(shí)還將股東財(cái)富與企業(yè)決策相聯(lián)系,更能反映企業(yè)真實(shí)的價(jià)值,但是因?yàn)橛?jì)算方法的復(fù)雜以及應(yīng)用范圍有限,在我國(guó)沒(méi)有被廣泛使用,我國(guó)的研究學(xué)者多用托賓Q來(lái)表示公司價(jià)值。目前我國(guó)學(xué)者對(duì)資本結(jié)構(gòu)理論的研究很少,多數(shù)是對(duì)資本結(jié)構(gòu)理論的應(yīng)用,或者研究資本結(jié)構(gòu)的影響因素,或者將資本結(jié)構(gòu)細(xì)分為股權(quán)和債權(quán),研究二者與公司價(jià)值的關(guān)系。自從我國(guó)開(kāi)始實(shí)行住房體制改革后,房地產(chǎn)業(yè)蒸蒸日上。房地產(chǎn)業(yè)是一個(gè)關(guān)系到國(guó)計(jì)民生的行業(yè),與建筑業(yè)、鋼鐵、建材等行業(yè)關(guān)聯(lián)度高,具有資金密集型、資金回收期長(zhǎng)、資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率高的行業(yè)特征,由于我國(guó)的企業(yè)債券市場(chǎng)不發(fā)達(dá),房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)上市融資的門(mén)檻高,導(dǎo)致我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)嚴(yán)重依賴(lài)銀行信貸資金,一旦企業(yè)資金斷裂將會(huì)給銀行帶來(lái)嚴(yán)重的流動(dòng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。為了抑制房地產(chǎn)業(yè)帶來(lái)的負(fù)效應(yīng),金融危機(jī)以來(lái)國(guó)家開(kāi)始實(shí)行一系列嚴(yán)格的政策來(lái)調(diào)控房地產(chǎn)業(yè),倒閉的中小房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)數(shù)目開(kāi)始上升,大規(guī)模的房地產(chǎn)上市公司開(kāi)始尋求銀行信貸資金以外的融資方式來(lái)謀求自身的發(fā)展�；诜康禺a(chǎn)業(yè)的重要性,本文研究了銀行貸款對(duì)房地產(chǎn)上市公司價(jià)值的影響,通過(guò)揭示房地產(chǎn)上市公司的貸款規(guī)模及結(jié)構(gòu)現(xiàn)狀,為優(yōu)化房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)資本結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)而提高公司價(jià)值提出了建議。本文以2006年底在滬深A(yù)股上市的65家房地產(chǎn)上市公司為研究對(duì)象,收集了2006-2010年五年的數(shù)據(jù),得到了325個(gè)觀測(cè)值。延續(xù)前人的做法,以托賓Q和市凈率作為被解釋變量衡量公司價(jià)值,以銀行貸款規(guī)模和期限結(jié)構(gòu)作為解釋變量,同時(shí)選取公司規(guī)模、成長(zhǎng)性、盈利能力、股權(quán)集中度作為控制變量,建立多元線性回歸模型,分析了銀行貸款規(guī)模和結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)房地產(chǎn)上市公司價(jià)值的影響。為了清晰的闡述問(wèn)題,本文從國(guó)際和國(guó)內(nèi)兩個(gè)維度總結(jié)了前人的研究成果。目前西方的資本結(jié)構(gòu)理論已經(jīng)日臻成熟,所以理論介紹以西方為主,國(guó)內(nèi)研究的側(cè)重點(diǎn)是對(duì)西方資本結(jié)構(gòu)理論的應(yīng)用。本文重點(diǎn)研究銀行貸款對(duì)公司價(jià)值的影響,所以在總結(jié)前人的研究成果后,從代理理論、信息不對(duì)稱(chēng)理論和權(quán)衡理論三個(gè)方面詳細(xì)分析了債務(wù)代理成本如何影響公司價(jià)值；接著詳細(xì)介紹了房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的現(xiàn)狀,房地產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展時(shí)間比較短,但是因?yàn)槠潢P(guān)聯(lián)度高,特別是和銀行關(guān)系的緊密,使政府對(duì)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)一直有比較頻繁的調(diào)控。房地產(chǎn)業(yè)整體資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率高、融資渠道單一,對(duì)銀行信貸資金的依賴(lài)使較多的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)都集中在銀行。經(jīng)過(guò)理論的分析和對(duì)實(shí)際的把握,第四章是銀行貸款對(duì)房地產(chǎn)上市公司價(jià)值影響的實(shí)證分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)銀行貸款規(guī)模與企業(yè)價(jià)值成負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系,并且通過(guò)了99%的置信水平檢驗(yàn),這是因?yàn)殂y行貸款作為房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)的主要融資方式,一定范圍內(nèi)可以增加公司的價(jià)值,但是超過(guò)一定的范圍會(huì)增加企業(yè)的償債風(fēng)險(xiǎn),增加破產(chǎn)的概率,從而降低公司價(jià)值；不論是以托賓Q還是以市凈率作為被解釋變量,短期貸款與公司價(jià)值都是負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系,長(zhǎng)期貸款與公司價(jià)值正相關(guān),并且二者在較高的顯著性水平上通過(guò)了檢驗(yàn),這與假設(shè)不符。根據(jù)西方資本結(jié)構(gòu)理論的解釋,縮短債務(wù)可以減少委托代理成本,減少企業(yè)的過(guò)度投資和投資不足的問(wèn)題,從而提高公司價(jià)值。但是我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)上市公司長(zhǎng)期依靠短期債務(wù),而房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)資金主要用于購(gòu)買(mǎi)固定資產(chǎn)等長(zhǎng)期資產(chǎn),資產(chǎn)和負(fù)債的長(zhǎng)期不匹配,使房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)隱藏著巨大的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn),短期債務(wù)規(guī)模過(guò)于龐大,減少代理成本作用被破產(chǎn)成本相抵消,從而降低了公司價(jià)值；企業(yè)規(guī)模與被解釋變量是顯著的負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系,與假設(shè)不相符,盡管規(guī)模增加可以通過(guò)多樣化的經(jīng)營(yíng)來(lái)降低經(jīng)營(yíng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn),但是龐大的資產(chǎn)規(guī)模也會(huì)給企業(yè)帶來(lái)較大的管理成本,從而影響公司的利潤(rùn),降低公司價(jià)值；股權(quán)集中度與被解釋變量是顯著的負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系,與假設(shè)相符,因?yàn)榉康禺a(chǎn)上市公司股權(quán)集中在國(guó)有股手中,多級(jí)代理關(guān)系的存在減弱了國(guó)有股的監(jiān)督作用,形成了“內(nèi)部人控制”,從而影響公司的治理效應(yīng),降低公司價(jià)值；企業(yè)盈利能力與成長(zhǎng)性對(duì)企業(yè)價(jià)值的影響不顯著,這與假設(shè)不符合,可能更多的投資者對(duì)房地產(chǎn)上市公司做短線操作,沒(méi)有關(guān)注企業(yè)的長(zhǎng)期發(fā)展能力。針對(duì)房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)貸款規(guī)模及結(jié)構(gòu)不合理的現(xiàn)狀,提出以下幾點(diǎn)建議：一、減少銀行貸款的規(guī)模,提高直接融資的比重,可以從加快債券市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展和放寬股權(quán)融資的條件來(lái)解決；二、積極發(fā)展房地產(chǎn)信托投資產(chǎn)品,著力推廣房地產(chǎn)信托投資基金；三、改變銀行貸款的期限結(jié)構(gòu),提高長(zhǎng)期貸款的比重；四、發(fā)揮企業(yè)的規(guī)模效應(yīng)；五、強(qiáng)化債權(quán)的監(jiān)督機(jī)制作用,加強(qiáng)債權(quán)的約束力不僅能夠促使房地產(chǎn)上市公司的管理者妥善運(yùn)用債務(wù)資本,同時(shí)可以改善公司治理模式；六、培育房地產(chǎn)金融二級(jí)市場(chǎng),積極推動(dòng)住房抵押貸款的證券化。目的是提高銀行房貸的流動(dòng)性,降低銀行的系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)；七、優(yōu)化房地產(chǎn)上市公司的股權(quán)結(jié)構(gòu)；八、完善相關(guān)的法律法規(guī)；九、利率市場(chǎng)化；總之,在信貸緊縮的大環(huán)境下,我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)融資迫切需要改變?nèi)谫Y渠道單一的局面,建立多層次的房地產(chǎn)融資體系,同時(shí)要培育房地產(chǎn)金融二級(jí)市場(chǎng),分散銀行的信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn),強(qiáng)化債權(quán)的監(jiān)督約束機(jī)制,有效的保護(hù)債權(quán)人的利益,改變股權(quán)集中度高的局面,這一切都需要國(guó)家法律法規(guī)的保障才能切實(shí)有效的進(jìn)行。國(guó)內(nèi)外大部分研究是圍繞債務(wù)融資的期限結(jié)構(gòu)來(lái)研究與公司價(jià)值或者企業(yè)績(jī)效的關(guān)系,將債務(wù)融資按照不同的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)細(xì)分,然后建立與公司價(jià)值的回歸模型,很少單獨(dú)研究銀行貸款這一融資方式與房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)價(jià)值的關(guān)系。本文的創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)在于將銀行貸款分為短期和長(zhǎng)期兩種形式,分別研究它們與企業(yè)價(jià)值的關(guān)系。不足之處在于沒(méi)有將影響房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)因素考慮在內(nèi),未來(lái)的研究可以將GDP、利率等反映宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的變量引入到模型中,增加模型的說(shuō)服力,同時(shí)本文只研究了銀行貸款對(duì)房地產(chǎn)上市公司價(jià)值的影響,未來(lái)房地產(chǎn)融資產(chǎn)品多樣化后,可以按資金的來(lái)源細(xì)分,研究不同渠道的資金對(duì)房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)價(jià)值的影響；最后,本文只對(duì)房地產(chǎn)上市公司的數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了研究,未來(lái)的研究可以擴(kuò)展到非上市公司,來(lái)增加實(shí)證結(jié)果的適用性。

    The earliest capital structure theory began in David Durand, his theory is the net income theory, the net operating income of theory and eclectic theory. Net income theory is that the increase in liabilities can reduce the cost of capital, thereby enhancing the value of the company; net operating income theory suggests that the increase in debt can reduce the weighted cost of capital, but also increases the cost of equity, finally, debt has nothing to do with capital structure; traditional compromise theory is a combination of both, the existence of an optimal capital structure, when the tax credit income brought about by debt offsets the increased cost of equity, the value of the enterprise is maximum. David’s research laid the foundation for the later development of the theory of capital structure. MM theory connects the capital structure with corporate values, People are aware that selecting an appropriate capital structure can enhance enterprise value. MM theory has a more stringent assumption, there is no strong applicability. MM theory made capital structure theory become a real scientific theory, the descendants of the study relax the assumption and expand to new areas. The development of the theory of asymmetric information and principal-agent has opened a new research fields, the theory of this period became the new capital structure theory. The representative theory is agency theory, the trade-off theory and pecking order theory.Since China began the implementation of housing reform, real estate industry has made tremendous development. Real estate has strong correlation degree with a lot of industry, for example, construction, iron and steel, building materials.The industry has characteristics of capital-intensive, the high asset liability rate. Due to China’s corporate bond markets are underdeveloped and high threshold of public financing of real estate enterprises, resulting in China’s real estate industry is heavily dependent on bank credit funds, enterprise funds’fracture will be a serious liquidity risk to the bank. Faced with the financial crisis, countries have begun to implement a strict policy to regulate the real estate industry, the number of closure of small and medium-sized real estate companies began to rise,large-scale real estate listed companies began to seek other funds from different direction to seek their own development. Based on the importance of real estate, paper focus on how bank loans affect the value of listed real estate companies, by revealing the status of the size of bank loan and structure of listed real estate companies, made recommendations for optimizing the capital structure of real estate enterprises, thereby increasing the value of the company.Author selected65listed real estate companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen A shares at the end of2006and collected data for the2006to2010, up to325observations. Continuation of previous practice, the dependent variable is for measuring the value of the company, use Tobin’s Q and book value, the size of bank loan and term structure as independent variables, and selected the size of the company, growth, profitability and ownership concentration as the control variable. The establishment of a multiple linear regression model is to analyze the impact on the value of real estate listed companies.Size of loans for real estate companies and the status of the structure is irrational, the following is my propose:First, reducing the size of bank loans to raise the proportion of direct financing, at the same time, accelerating the development of bond markets and to relaxing the restrictions of equity financing;Second, actively developing the real estate investment trust products, mainly promoting real estate investment trusts; Third, changing the term structure of bank loans, increasing the proportion of long-term loans; Fourth, the scale effect should be considered; Fifth, strengthening the role of creditor oversight mechanisms, strengthening the binding of the claims, not only to promote the managers of listed real estate companies to make use of debt capital, but improving corporate governance; Fifth, nurturing the secondary market for real estate finance, and actively promoting the securitization of home mortgages. The purpose is to improve the liquidity of the mortgage banks, reduce the systemic risk of the bank; Sixth, optimizing the equity structure of listed real estate companies; Seventh, improving relevant laws and regulations; Eighth, the interest rate market. In short, the credit crunch environment, China’s real estate corporate finance has an urgent need to build the multi-level financing channel, nurturing the secondary market of real estate finance to low the banks’credit risk, and strengthening supervision and restraint mechanisms of the claims, in order to protect the interests of creditors effectively, changing the situation of high ownership concentration, the protection of all state laws and regulations can be effective.Most of the studies at home and abroad focus on the relationship between term structure of debt financing and the value of the company or enterprise performance, and then create a regression model.Rarely separately researching the bank loan and the value of real estate enterprises. The innovation of this paper is divided into short-term bank loans and long-term in two forms, respectively, to study their relationship with the enterprise value.The downside is that macroeconomic factors were not included. In future, such as GDP and interest rates which reflects the macroeconomic variables can be introduced into the model, increasing the persuasiveness of the model; when real estate financing product is diversified, research can focus on how funds of the different channels affect the value of the real estate business; Finally, this article only considered listed real estate company’s data, future research can be extended to non-listed companies to increase the applicability of the empirical results.

        銀行貸款對(duì)房地產(chǎn)上市公司價(jià)值的實(shí)證研究

摘要4-8ABSTRACT8-101. 緒論13-17    1.1 研究背景及意義13-14    1.2 研究目標(biāo)14    1.3 研究方法14    1.4 研究框架14-15    1.5 創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)15    1.6 概念的界定15-172. 國(guó)內(nèi)外文獻(xiàn)綜述與理論分析17-32    2.1 國(guó)外相關(guān)研究17-23        2.1.1 國(guó)外資本結(jié)構(gòu)理論17-22        2.1.2 國(guó)外資本結(jié)構(gòu)與企業(yè)價(jià)值的實(shí)證研究22-23    2.2 國(guó)內(nèi)關(guān)于資本結(jié)構(gòu)與企業(yè)價(jià)值的實(shí)證研究23-25    2.3 債務(wù)融資與企業(yè)價(jià)值的研究25-29        2.3.1 國(guó)外相關(guān)研究25-28        2.3.2 國(guó)內(nèi)相關(guān)研究28-29    2.4 關(guān)于房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)資本結(jié)構(gòu)和企業(yè)價(jià)值的研究29-323. 房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀32-43    3.1 房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的特征32-33        3.1.1 資金密集、周期性強(qiáng)32        3.1.2 宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)因素影響較大32-33    3.2 房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展歷程33-34    3.3 房地產(chǎn)上市公司的融資方式34-38    3.4 房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的資本結(jié)構(gòu)特征38-43        3.4.1 資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率高38-39        3.4.2 融資渠道單一39-41        3.4.3 短期貸款占比較高41-434. 實(shí)證研究43-55    4.1 樣本選取和數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源43-45        4.1.1 樣本選取43-44        4.1.2 數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源44-45    4.2 變量定義和研究假設(shè)45-47        4.2.1 變量定義45-46        4.2.2 研究假設(shè)46-47    4.3 模型的建立47-48    4.4 實(shí)證分析48-55        4.4.1 描述性統(tǒng)計(jì)48-51        4.4.2 相關(guān)性分析51        4.4.3 回歸分析51-555. 結(jié)論及建議55-63    5.1 結(jié)論55-56    5.2 提高房地產(chǎn)上市公司價(jià)值的建議56-61        5.2.1 減少銀行貸款的規(guī)模,提高直接融資的比重56-57        5.2.2 積極發(fā)展房地產(chǎn)信托投資產(chǎn)品57-58        5.2.3 改變銀行貸款的期限結(jié)構(gòu),提高長(zhǎng)期貸款的比重58        5.2.4 發(fā)揮企業(yè)的規(guī)模效應(yīng)58-59        5.2.5 強(qiáng)化債權(quán)的監(jiān)督機(jī)制作用59        5.2.6 培育房地產(chǎn)金融二級(jí)市場(chǎng),積極推動(dòng)住房抵押貸款的證券化59        5.2.7 優(yōu)化房地產(chǎn)上市公司的股權(quán)結(jié)構(gòu)59-60        5.2.8 完善相關(guān)的法律法規(guī)60        5.2.9 利率市場(chǎng)化60-61    5.3 研究局限及展望61-63        5.3.1 研究的局限61-62        5.3.2 進(jìn)一步研究的方向62-63參考文獻(xiàn)63-69后記69-70致謝70

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