發(fā)布時間：2018-07-04 20:43

  本文選題：土地定價 + 土地所有權(quán)��； 參考：《西南財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年博士論文

【摘要】：“勞動是財富之父,土地是財富之母”。土地是人類社會最原始的生活資料來源；土地是人類社會最原始的生產(chǎn)資料來源；土地為人類社會各行各業(yè)的建立與發(fā)展提供場所與基地；土地為人類一切勞動產(chǎn)品提供物質(zhì)基礎(chǔ)；土地是國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的基礎(chǔ)性產(chǎn)業(yè)-農(nóng)業(yè)不可替代的生產(chǎn)資料。由于中國特殊的歷史傳統(tǒng)和國情,土地是中國社會穩(wěn)定、民族自強(qiáng)自立的基礎(chǔ)。土地制度是人類社會最基礎(chǔ)、最根本性的制度。市場是解決經(jīng)濟(jì)問題的最佳工具,利用土地市場可以優(yōu)化資源的配置、提高資源的使用效率。由于中國城市和農(nóng)村不同土地制度的影響,我國土地市場的發(fā)展存在著體制性障礙。研究土地定價問題就變得極端重要。 本研究立足國情,基于資產(chǎn)定價理論和實(shí)物期權(quán)理論、期權(quán)博弈理論,探討利用房價和房租對土地定價的實(shí)物期權(quán)方法,研究了三種隨機(jī)性沖擊：房價、房租、經(jīng)濟(jì)沖擊對土地價格的影響；并分析了在當(dāng)前中國的土地制度下,土地價格形成的博弈過程；探索研究土地經(jīng)營權(quán)流轉(zhuǎn)市場的市場經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)律。力求在制度層面、工程層面、技術(shù)層面為中國土地定價機(jī)制的健康發(fā)展提供有益的探索。試圖用現(xiàn)代金融學(xué)的理論方法理解中國土地市場的經(jīng)濟(jì)行為,為以技術(shù)克服制度的缺陷,為中國的現(xiàn)代化過程提供有益的理論探索。為制定合理而靈活的農(nóng)民土地征用價格標(biāo)準(zhǔn)提供合理的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)依據(jù)。全文包含九個章節(jié),概要如下： 第一章,緒論。對整個論文的核心內(nèi)容進(jìn)行了概括,內(nèi)容具體包括論文的選題背景和核心問題的提出；研究的目的、研究意義和創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)；討論對象的界定和分析方法的介紹；之后,闡述了結(jié)構(gòu)安排。 第二章,當(dāng)代中國土地制度的演進(jìn)與定價方法述評。本章梳理了土地定價問題的理論脈絡(luò)、歷史脈絡(luò)和方法脈絡(luò)。農(nóng)民的土地應(yīng)是包括份額所有權(quán)、使用權(quán)和發(fā)展權(quán)的有機(jī)體系。所有權(quán)是產(chǎn)權(quán),土地使用權(quán)也是一種產(chǎn)權(quán)；回顧當(dāng)代中國土地制度的演進(jìn),獲得了中國當(dāng)代農(nóng)民土地權(quán)利發(fā)展的一個清晰的理論坐標(biāo)；最后評述了現(xiàn)有土地定價方法。邊際農(nóng)業(yè)價值法、實(shí)物期權(quán)定價法、時間空間模型定價法等所謂科學(xué)土地定價方法都有其適用范圍和局限性。本章為整個研究提供了歷史依據(jù)和經(jīng)濟(jì)理論基礎(chǔ)。 第三章,實(shí)物期權(quán)方法源流考。本章系統(tǒng)而深入地評述了實(shí)物期權(quán)定價方法體系。實(shí)物期權(quán)定價方法來源于不確定性的處理和應(yīng)對。不確定性的類型決定與實(shí)物期權(quán)定價方法的適用范圍。實(shí)物期權(quán)定價方法的經(jīng)濟(jì)金融學(xué)理論基礎(chǔ)是：套利均衡原理,市場完全性和有效性假設(shè),風(fēng)險中性定價原理。由于實(shí)物期權(quán)的特性,實(shí)物期權(quán)發(fā)展為一個豐富的類別。在經(jīng)典實(shí)物期權(quán)方法的基礎(chǔ)上,復(fù)合期權(quán)理論、期權(quán)博弈理論、模糊實(shí)物期權(quán)以及不完全信息下的實(shí)物期權(quán)方法正在得到理論界積極地探索和研究。最后,本章介紹了期權(quán)與實(shí)物期權(quán)的數(shù)學(xué)模型及求解方法。本章為整個研究提供了數(shù)理方法論基礎(chǔ)。 第四章,土地的價值可以分為固定收益部分和期權(quán)價值部分。本章視期權(quán)價值是房產(chǎn)價格的驅(qū)動的單因素美式期權(quán),推導(dǎo)得到了土地價格的解析表達(dá)式,并進(jìn)行了比較靜態(tài)分析,在不同的市場參數(shù)結(jié)構(gòu)下,給出了土地價格和期權(quán)價格的值及其比率。 第五章,房價、房租與土地價格：一個實(shí)物期權(quán)分析框架。本章把土地視為受房價和房租兩個隨機(jī)因素影響的實(shí)物期權(quán),并得到了基于房屋價格和房租價格表示的土地價格。分析表明,土地價值的增長率和房屋價格的增長率近似成比例；土地價格的波動率一定超過房屋價格的波動率；土地價格的波動率一定超過房租價格的波動率;并給出了土地價格的增長率超過房屋價格增長率的一個解釋,討論了房租價格對地價的影響。 第六章,地價可以看成是房屋價格驅(qū)動的期權(quán)。這種定價較科學(xué)的反映了土地的價值,當(dāng)前的房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控對房價有較大的沖擊,此時地價會有如何的反映,本章利用帶跳擴(kuò)散過程的美式期權(quán)來分析這種沖擊對地價的影響。 第七章,本章結(jié)合數(shù)理金融學(xué)的最新進(jìn)展,把幾何布朗運(yùn)動,帶便利收益的幾何布朗運(yùn)動、分?jǐn)?shù)維的幾何布朗運(yùn)動、分?jǐn)?shù)維帶跳的幾何布朗運(yùn)動作為土地收益流的基本假設(shè),并推導(dǎo)了各種形式下土地?fù)駜?yōu)期權(quán)的解析表達(dá)式,可以為土地的擇優(yōu)期權(quán)定價提供理論指導(dǎo)。農(nóng)地所包含的的實(shí)物期權(quán)價值,在使用權(quán)無法流通的地方是成長期權(quán)的價值；在使用權(quán)實(shí)現(xiàn)流通的地方是復(fù)合期權(quán)的價值。農(nóng)地的發(fā)展權(quán)定價可理解為成長期權(quán)、轉(zhuǎn)換期權(quán)、價值成長期權(quán)和轉(zhuǎn)換期權(quán)結(jié)合的復(fù)合期權(quán)。 第八章,二維隨機(jī)條件下土地租賃經(jīng)營的投資博弈模型。本章利用實(shí)物期權(quán)博弈框架,分析了二維隨機(jī)條件下土地租賃經(jīng)營的投資博弈模型,考察了二維隨機(jī)條件下投資密度和投資成本對投資者決策的影響。當(dāng)投資密度和初始投資成本比率不對稱時,都會對各投資閾值產(chǎn)生影響；較大的投資密度和投資成本比率都能提高投資閾值,影響投資者的投資決策；交叉占優(yōu)時兩投資者都有機(jī)會成為領(lǐng)先投資者；相對于投資成本比率的影響,租賃經(jīng)營密度對投資者的投資閾值影響更大。 第九章,總結(jié)與展望。本章首先結(jié)合相關(guān)的理論基礎(chǔ)、研究成果及實(shí)踐經(jīng)驗(yàn)對本文研究結(jié)論進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)的解釋和探討,以全面認(rèn)識農(nóng)民的土地的份額所有權(quán)、使用權(quán)和發(fā)展權(quán)對土地定價的影響機(jī)理,在此基礎(chǔ)上,總結(jié)本文的理論貢獻(xiàn)和實(shí)踐啟示：結(jié)合中國國情,針對土地的定價問題、土地市場的建立、農(nóng)民權(quán)益保護(hù)提出了相關(guān)的政策建議。最后,討論了研究局限和后續(xù)研究的方向。 本文的主要研究結(jié)論如下： 第一,本文基于全國平均的數(shù)據(jù),證實(shí)了土地開發(fā)的價值即房產(chǎn)的價值是地價構(gòu)成的最主要部分。資本化地租方法不應(yīng)被用于中國未來的土地轉(zhuǎn)讓活動。應(yīng)用期權(quán)方法,有效地反應(yīng)市場的靈活性價值,完善土地定價的科學(xué)方法,確保農(nóng)民在土地征用過程中獲得合理的收益。 第二,在中國這個二元化的土地市場上,政府的壟斷和規(guī)制加上土地資源天然的稀缺性加重了社會福利的雙重?fù)p失,限制了土地的發(fā)展權(quán)價值實(shí)現(xiàn)。為了提高土地資源配置效率,應(yīng)利用市場這一是解決經(jīng)濟(jì)問題的最佳工具,逐步建立統(tǒng)一的土地市場,實(shí)現(xiàn)土地資源的最優(yōu)配置,提高國民福利。 第三,土地價格是土地市場的核心,但是這個核心依賴于具體的制度環(huán)境。當(dāng)下的中國產(chǎn)生了浮躁的脫離國情的極端主張,比如主張土地的完全私有化,和土地市場的完全自由化。由于中國特有的歷史傳統(tǒng)和土地資源的獨(dú)有特質(zhì),堅持當(dāng)下的土地制度是必要的。 本研究使我們對土地定價有了更系統(tǒng)、更深入的理解。在現(xiàn)有研究的基礎(chǔ)上,本論文的創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)主要體現(xiàn)在： 第一,本研究建立了土地價格、房價、房租構(gòu)成的全新的實(shí)物期權(quán)分析框架。本文基于農(nóng)戶對土地的份額所有權(quán)、使用權(quán)和發(fā)展權(quán),基于無套利方法視土地價格為一個期權(quán),進(jìn)行了期權(quán)定價分析。分析利用了宏觀整體的土地價格指數(shù)和住房價格指數(shù),分析認(rèn)為農(nóng)戶對土地的發(fā)展權(quán)應(yīng)該得到價值體現(xiàn),全國平均的數(shù)據(jù)證實(shí)了土地開發(fā)的價值即房產(chǎn)的價值是地價構(gòu)成的最主要部分。資本化地租方法不應(yīng)被用于中國未來的土地轉(zhuǎn)讓活動。中國的土地價格具有鮮明的期權(quán)特征,應(yīng)用實(shí)物期權(quán)方法進(jìn)行土地定價是科學(xué)、合理的。 第二,本研究通過結(jié)合數(shù)理金融學(xué)的最新進(jìn)展,把幾何布朗運(yùn)動,帶便利收益的幾何布朗運(yùn)動、分?jǐn)?shù)維的幾何布朗運(yùn)動、分?jǐn)?shù)維帶跳的幾何布朗運(yùn)動作為土地收益流的基本假設(shè),并推導(dǎo)了各種形式下土地?fù)駜?yōu)期權(quán)的解析表達(dá)式,可以為土地的擇優(yōu)期權(quán)定價提供理論指導(dǎo)。 第三,本研究利用期權(quán)博弈工具,分析農(nóng)業(yè)專業(yè)組織的競爭規(guī)律,建立了二維隨機(jī)條件下土地租賃經(jīng)營的投資博弈模型。研究了二維隨機(jī)條件下投資密度和投資成本對投資者決策的影響。 本研究努力為實(shí)現(xiàn)征地補(bǔ)償合理化、同地同價奠定理論基礎(chǔ),以扭轉(zhuǎn)我國征地補(bǔ)償標(biāo)準(zhǔn)偏低的現(xiàn)象；本研究為構(gòu)建立以產(chǎn)權(quán)制度為依托,以實(shí)際產(chǎn)權(quán)交易關(guān)系為依據(jù),建立中國城市和農(nóng)村統(tǒng)一的地價體系,提供理論支持。本文亦為研究土地經(jīng)營權(quán)流轉(zhuǎn)市場的市場經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)律提供有益的探索。
[Abstract]:" Labor is the father of wealth , land is the mother of wealth " . Land is the most primitive source of life of human society ;
Land is the most primitive source of production data in human society ;
The land is a place and base for the establishment and development of all walks of life in the human society ;
The land provides the material basis for all human labor products ;
Land is the basic industry of national economy - the non - replaceable productive material of agriculture . Because of the special historical tradition and national conditions of China , the land is the foundation of Chinese social stability and national self - reliance . Land system is the most basic and fundamental system of human society . The market is the best tool for solving economic problems . The land market can optimize the allocation of resources and improve the use efficiency of resources . Because of the influence of different land systems in Chinese cities and rural areas , the development of land market in China has institutional obstacles .

Based on the theory of asset pricing theory and real option theory and option game theory , this paper discusses three random shocks : house price , rent and economic impact on land price .
The game process of land price formation in China ' s land system is analyzed .
The paper explores the market economy law of land management right transfer market . It aims at providing beneficial exploration for the healthy development of China ' s land pricing mechanism at the system level , engineering level and technical level .

The first chapter , introduction , summarizes the core contents of the whole thesis , including the background of the thesis and the proposal of the core problem .
Research purposes , research significance and innovation points ;
The definition of the object and the introduction of the analytical method are discussed .
After that , the structure arrangement is explained .

Chapter 2 is a review of the evolution and pricing methods of land pricing in China . This chapter combs the theory of land pricing , historical context and method . The land of the peasants should be the organic system including the ownership , the right to use and the right to development . The ownership is the property right and the right to use the land is also a property right ;
This paper reviews the evolution of contemporary Chinese land system , and obtains a clear theoretical coordinate of the development of land rights in China ' s contemporary peasants ;
At last , the author comments on the existing methods of land pricing , such as marginal agricultural value method , real option pricing method , time space model pricing method and so - called scientific land pricing methods . This chapter provides historical basis and economic theory basis for the whole research .

In chapter 3 , the real option pricing method is introduced in detail . The real option pricing method is derived from the process of uncertainty and the application scope of the real option pricing method . The theory of real options pricing is based on the theory of arbitrage equilibrium , market completeness and validity and risk neutral pricing .

In chapter 4 , the value of the land can be divided into fixed income part and option value part . In this chapter , the analytic expression of the land price is deduced according to the single factor American option which is the driving of the real estate price , and the comparative static analysis is carried out , and the value and the ratio of the land price and the option price are given under different market parameters structure .

Chapter five , house price , rent and land price : a real option analysis framework . This chapter regards land as real option affected by two random factors of house price and rent , and obtains land price based on house price and rent price . The analysis shows that the growth rate of land value and the growth rate of house price are approximately proportional ;
The fluctuation rate of land price must exceed the fluctuation rate of house price ;
The fluctuation rate of land price must exceed the fluctuation rate of the rent price , and gives an explanation of the growth rate of land price above house price growth rate , and discusses the effect of rent price on land price .

Chapter 6 , the land price can be regarded as an option driven by the price of the house . This pricing is more scientific and reflects the value of the land , and the current real estate regulation has a great impact on the house price . At this time , how the land price will be reflected , this chapter uses the American option with the jump diffusion process to analyze the impact on the land price .

Chapter 7 , combining the latest development of mathematical finance , geometric Brownian motion , geometric Brownian motion with convenient return , geometric Brownian motion of fractal dimension , geometric Brownian motion of fractal dimension and fractional dimension are used as the basic assumption of land income flow , and the analytic expression of optimal options in various forms can be provided .
The development right pricing of agricultural land can be understood as the combination of growth options , conversion options , value growth options and conversion options .

Chapter 8 deals with the investment game model of land lease under two - dimensional random condition . This chapter analyzes the investment game model of land lease under two - dimensional random condition by using the real option game framework , and investigates the influence of investment density and investment cost on investor ' s decision - making under two - dimensional random condition .
The larger investment density and investment cost ratio can increase the investment threshold and influence the investor ' s investment decision - making ;
Both investors have the opportunity to become a leading investor when cross - dominated .
With respect to the impact of the investment cost ratio , the lease operating density has a greater impact on the investor ' s investment threshold .

Chapter 9 , summarizes and prospects . Firstly , this chapter explains and discusses the conclusion of this paper based on the relevant theoretical foundation , research results and practical experience .

The main conclusions of this paper are as follows :

First , based on the national average data , this paper confirms the value of land development , that is , the value of the real estate is the most important part of the land price . The capitalization land rent method should not be used in the future land transfer activities in China .

Second , in the two - way land market in China , the government ' s monopoly and regulation , combined with the natural scarcity of land resources , aggravated the dual loss of social welfare and restricted the realization of the value of the land ' s right to development . In order to improve the efficiency of land resource allocation , the market should be used as the best tool to solve the economic problems , and the unified land market should be gradually established , so as to realize the optimal allocation of land resources and improve the national welfare .

Third , the land price is the core of the land market , but the core depends on the specific institutional environment . The present China has generated an impetuosity of the extreme claims of the country , such as the complete privatization of the land and the complete liberalization of the land market . Because of the unique characteristics of China ' s unique historical traditions and land resources , it is necessary to adhere to the present land system .

This study gives us a more systematic and deeper understanding of land pricing . Based on the existing research , the innovation points of this paper are mainly reflected in :

First , this study establishes a new kind of real option analysis framework for land price , house price and rent . Based on the farmer ' s share ownership , right to use and right to development , this paper makes an option pricing analysis based on the land price index and housing price index of the farmer . The analysis uses the macro - integral land price index and the housing price index , and analyses that the value of the land development is the most important part of the land price . The capitalization land rent method should not be used in the future land transfer activity in China . The land price of China has a sharp option characteristic , and the land pricing is scientific and reasonable .

Secondly , this study combines geometric Brownian motion , geometric Brownian motion with convenient return , geometric Brownian motion of fractal dimension , geometric Brownian motion of fractal dimension and geometric Brownian motion of fractional dimension as the basic assumption of land revenue stream .

Thirdly , this research uses the option game tool to analyze the competition law of the agricultural professional organization , establishes the investment game model of the land lease management under the two - dimensional random condition , and studies the influence of the investment density and the investment cost on the investor ' s decision - making under the two - dimensional random condition .

The purpose of this research is to lay a theoretical foundation for the rationalization of land requisition compensation and to lay a theoretical foundation for the co - price with the ground , so as to reverse the low compensation standard in China ;
Based on the property rights system , this research is based on the relationship between real property rights and property rights , establishes the unified land price system of Chinese cities and rural areas , and provides theoretical support . This paper also provides useful exploration for the study of the market economy law of land management right transfer market .
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F301.4;F830

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