本文選題：利率 + 匯率��； 參考：《復旦大學》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：利率是一國貨幣在本國貨幣市場的價格體現(xiàn),匯率是本國貨幣在外匯市場上的價格體現(xiàn)。這兩個變量均可做為表現(xiàn)一個國家宏觀經(jīng)濟運行狀態(tài)的核心金融指標,對于判斷資源是否進行有效配置、觀測投資活動的實際收益情況、調(diào)整內(nèi)部和外部經(jīng)濟均衡都有著相當重要的作用。二者都是央行實行政策干預的有效手段,也都是維護經(jīng)濟穩(wěn)定以及金融安全的重要工具。 長期以來,由于國內(nèi)對經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的認識過多的停留在國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的高速增長之上,使得政府對貿(mào)易順差和招商引資的看重程度都很高,引發(fā)了長期的“雙順差”。同時,加入WTO后的中國不可能再長期處于資本流動嚴格管制的保護之下,由于一直以來采取的強制結(jié)售匯制度和為了維護出口貿(mào)易免受沖擊而維持匯率的穩(wěn)定的央行沖銷操作,使得國內(nèi)面臨著較大的物價上漲壓力,央行貨幣政策的獨立性受到了牽制。 為此,我國加快了匯率改革和利率改革的步伐,以期用市場的敏感性和主動性來逐步代替政府的權(quán)威,實現(xiàn)本來難以同時實現(xiàn)的內(nèi)部均衡和外部均衡。在這個過程中,關(guān)注匯率-利率聯(lián)動作用是較為重要的一環(huán)。匯率-利率的聯(lián)動性從某種程度上說代表了政策與市場相互影響的傳導機制的順暢程度,聯(lián)動作用越明顯,商品、貨幣、外匯等市場割裂的程度就越輕,也意味著市場有較大的可能自行從偏離均衡的位置回歸,從而可以使得政府的有形的手從調(diào)節(jié)繁雜的一系列中間目標中解脫出來,避免了政策指向不明確造成的效率低下。 本文試圖從經(jīng)典的匯率決定理論入手,分析距今較為接近的、較有代表意義的2005年匯改前后,匯率-利率聯(lián)動作用所發(fā)生的變化,從而可以判斷目前匯率、利率改革的程度和力度,為進一步的改革提出有意義的建議和意見。 改革始終是面臨著風險的,不改革也難以保證沒有風險。面對著可能引發(fā)的風險,吸取其他國象在匯率改革和利率改革中的成功經(jīng)驗與失敗教訓就顯得尤為重要。本文挑選了一些在匯率改革或利率改革過程中較有代表性的國家或地區(qū),對其成功與失敗原因進行剖析,找出對我國的匯率改革和利率改革可以起到借鑒作用的因素。最后,對于對正在進行中的匯率改革和利率改革,本文從匯率、資本流動、利率、實體經(jīng)濟4個方面提出相應(yīng)的政策性意見�？傊�,既要積極推進匯率和利率制度改革,使匯率-利率聯(lián)動性的提高為我國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展起到積極的作用,同時也要防范采用錯誤的方法或不合國情的做法可能會帶來的各種風險。
[Abstract]:Interest rate is the price of a country's currency in the domestic currency market, and the exchange rate is the price of a country's currency in the foreign exchange market. These two variables can be used as the core financial indicators to represent the state of a country's macroeconomic operation. They can be used to determine whether resources are effectively allocated and to observe the actual returns of investment activities. Adjustment of internal and external economic balance has a rather important role. Both are effective means for the central bank to carry out policy intervention, as well as important tools for maintaining economic stability and financial security. For a long time, the recognition of economic development in China has stayed on the high speed of GDP growth, which makes the government attach great importance to the trade surplus and attracting investment, which leads to the long-term "double surplus". At the same time, after China's entry into the WTO, it is unlikely that China will be under the protection of strict controls on capital flows for a long time, thanks to the system of compulsory foreign exchange settlement and sale and the central bank's sterilisation operations that maintain the stability of the exchange rate in order to maintain export trade against shocks. Make domestic face bigger price rise pressure, the independence of central bank monetary policy is restrained. Therefore, China has quickened the pace of exchange rate reform and interest rate reform in order to gradually replace the authority of the government with the market sensitivity and initiative, and to realize the internal and external equilibrium which is difficult to realize simultaneously. In this process, it is more important to pay attention to the exchange rate-interest rate linkage. To some extent, the linkage of exchange-interest rates represents the smoothness of the transmission mechanism of the interaction between policies and markets. The more obvious the linkage is, the less fragmented markets are, such as commodities, currencies, foreign exchange, etc. It also means that the market is more likely to return from deviation from the equilibrium position, thus freeing the tangible hand of the government from a series of intermediate goals of adjustment, thus avoiding inefficiencies caused by unclear policy direction. Based on the classical exchange rate determination theory, this paper attempts to analyze the changes of the exchange-interest rate linkage before and after the exchange rate reform in 2005, which is relatively close and more representative, so as to judge the current exchange rate. The degree and intensity of interest rate reform, and put forward meaningful suggestions and suggestions for further reform. Reform is always facing risks, and it is difficult to guarantee that there is no risk without reform. In the face of possible risks, it is particularly important to learn from the successes and failures of other countries in exchange rate reform and interest rate reform. This paper selects some representative countries or regions in the process of exchange rate reform or interest rate reform, analyzes the reasons for its success and failure, and finds out the factors that can be used for reference in China's exchange rate reform and interest rate reform. Finally, for the reform of exchange rate and interest rate, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions from four aspects: exchange rate, capital flow, interest rate and real economy. In short, it is necessary to actively promote the reform of the exchange rate and interest rate system so that the increase of the exchange-interest rate linkage will play a positive role in the economic development of our country. There is also a need to guard against the risks of using the wrong or inappropriate approach.
【學位授予單位】：復旦大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.6

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本文編號：1846978