基于自助法的我國(guó)清潔能源需求預(yù)測(cè)
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2019-02-24 20:41
【摘要】：以我國(guó)歷年能源消費(fèi)量為基礎(chǔ),利用加速遺傳算法建立了生命回旋預(yù)測(cè)模型(LC)。為了進(jìn)一步刻畫預(yù)測(cè)模型計(jì)算值的不確定性,提高預(yù)測(cè)模型的準(zhǔn)確性,運(yùn)用自助法對(duì)計(jì)算誤差進(jìn)行重抽樣,建立了基于自助法的能源消費(fèi)量生命回旋預(yù)測(cè)模型(LC-B),并結(jié)合相關(guān)政策預(yù)測(cè)2020年我國(guó)清潔能源需求總量。研究結(jié)果表明,2020年,我國(guó)清潔能源需求量將到達(dá)4.96億~8.51億tce。
[Abstract]:Based on the energy consumption over the years in China, the life cycle prediction model (LC).) was established by using the accelerated genetic algorithm (AGA). In order to further depict the uncertainty of calculation value of prediction model and improve the accuracy of prediction model, the self-help method is used to resample the calculation error, and a life cyclotron prediction model (LC-B) for energy consumption based on self-help method is established. And combined with relevant policies to forecast the total demand for clean energy in 2020. The results show that the demand for clean energy in China will reach 496 million ~ 851 million tce. in 2020.
【作者單位】： 北京歐特科新技術(shù)有限公司;
【分類號(hào)】：F224;F426.2
，
本文編號(hào)：2429911
[Abstract]:Based on the energy consumption over the years in China, the life cycle prediction model (LC).) was established by using the accelerated genetic algorithm (AGA). In order to further depict the uncertainty of calculation value of prediction model and improve the accuracy of prediction model, the self-help method is used to resample the calculation error, and a life cyclotron prediction model (LC-B) for energy consumption based on self-help method is established. And combined with relevant policies to forecast the total demand for clean energy in 2020. The results show that the demand for clean energy in China will reach 496 million ~ 851 million tce. in 2020.
【作者單位】： 北京歐特科新技術(shù)有限公司;
【分類號(hào)】：F224;F426.2
，
本文編號(hào)：2429911
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