【摘要】：近些年來(lái)主板和創(chuàng)業(yè)板中的熱點(diǎn)板塊,因過(guò)度預(yù)期和炒作,脫離實(shí)際經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展速度,成為股災(zāi)的重要因素。選取了近幾年人們關(guān)注的熱點(diǎn)板塊——鋰電池板塊,選取了2014—2015年其98家上市公司的財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo),通過(guò)分析上市公司財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo),建立Logistic回歸模型,預(yù)測(cè)熱點(diǎn)板塊的股價(jià)現(xiàn)行走勢(shì),判斷公司股價(jià)是否脫離實(shí)際業(yè)績(jī)?cè)鲩L(zhǎng)。最終的實(shí)證分析結(jié)果顯示,無(wú)論是在新能源,還是在未來(lái)的充電汽車應(yīng)用上,鋰電池都有很大潛在價(jià)值。鋰電池板塊的上市公司財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)大多數(shù)都是表現(xiàn)良好的,因此股價(jià)看多趨勢(shì)是有經(jīng)濟(jì)基礎(chǔ)支撐的,沒(méi)有過(guò)度的炒作。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the hot spots in the main board and the gem have become an important factor in the stock market disaster because of excessive expectation and speculation, and divorced from the actual economic development speed. This paper selects the hot plate of people's attention in recent years, the lithium battery plate, selects the financial index of 98 listed companies in 2014-2015, establishes the Logistic regression model by analyzing the financial index of the listed company. Forecast the current trend of hot-spot stock prices, judge whether the company's share price is divorced from real performance growth. The final empirical results show that lithium batteries have great potential value in both new energy sources and future applications of rechargeable vehicles. Most of the financial indicators of listed companies in the lithium battery sector are doing well, so the bullish trend of stock prices is supported by the economic basis, without excessive hype.
【作者單位】： 上海理工大學(xué)管理學(xué)院;
【分類號(hào)】：F426.6;F832.51

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