【摘要】：常規(guī)能源如煤炭、石油及天然氣等儲(chǔ)量有限,且在大量開(kāi)發(fā)及使用時(shí)會(huì)對(duì)生態(tài)環(huán)境產(chǎn)生不利影響。隨著能源短缺與環(huán)境污染問(wèn)題的日益嚴(yán)峻,使得大力發(fā)展清潔的可再生能源具有重要的經(jīng)濟(jì)意義與社會(huì)意義。近些年,風(fēng)能、太陽(yáng)能等可再生能源發(fā)電技術(shù)不斷取得突破,并網(wǎng)規(guī)模不斷增加。尤其是風(fēng)能作為一種可再生的綠色能源,不僅潔凈、無(wú)污染,還取之不盡、用之不竭,具有大規(guī)模的可開(kāi)發(fā)利用前景。近些年來(lái),我國(guó)風(fēng)電裝機(jī)容量不斷增長(zhǎng),己成為中國(guó)能源經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的一大特色。風(fēng)電作為清潔的可再生能源發(fā)電方式,可緩解我國(guó)電力緊張,促進(jìn)社會(huì)低碳環(huán)保的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。近些年,新能源及可再生能源電力在世界范圍內(nèi)快速發(fā)展,關(guān)于新能源及可再生能源發(fā)電績(jī)效的相關(guān)研究也越來(lái)越受到重視。本文首先簡(jiǎn)要介紹了全球風(fēng)資源的分布和裝機(jī)狀況,以及我國(guó)風(fēng)電產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀;并在此基礎(chǔ)上分析出我國(guó)風(fēng)電發(fā)展的影響因素,主要包括:風(fēng)能狀況與能源結(jié)構(gòu)、產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩與并網(wǎng)發(fā)電困難、技術(shù)水平與創(chuàng)新能力不足、成本限制與電價(jià)政策、配套政策與激勵(lì)措施等。本文于傳統(tǒng)的DEA模型中引入時(shí)間維度建立風(fēng)力發(fā)電績(jī)效動(dòng)態(tài)評(píng)價(jià)模型,從投入與產(chǎn)出角度對(duì)2011-2014年中國(guó)29個(gè)省(自治區(qū)、直轄市)的風(fēng)電績(jī)效的純技術(shù)效率、規(guī)模效率、以及綜合技術(shù)效率逐一進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià);然后采用TOPSIS法對(duì)綜合技術(shù)效率已經(jīng)達(dá)到有效的省份進(jìn)行二次評(píng)價(jià)的結(jié)果排序,從而實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)中國(guó)各省份風(fēng)電績(jī)效的最終排名。同時(shí)對(duì)評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果進(jìn)行深入的研究與比較,分析出不同省份風(fēng)電績(jī)效差別背后的機(jī)理及驅(qū)動(dòng)力。為進(jìn)一步研究影響我國(guó)風(fēng)電績(jī)效的因素,本文引入了基于改進(jìn)的SCP范式,從我國(guó)風(fēng)電的市場(chǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)、市場(chǎng)行為、市場(chǎng)績(jī)效三方面出發(fā),應(yīng)用多元線性回歸模型分析三者之間的數(shù)量關(guān)系。通過(guò)模型結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn),我國(guó)各省市風(fēng)電市場(chǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)、市場(chǎng)行為和市場(chǎng)績(jī)效之間確實(shí)存在著長(zhǎng)期穩(wěn)定的均衡關(guān)系,并得知影響各省市風(fēng)電績(jī)效的主要因素有:各省市風(fēng)力發(fā)電量占該省總發(fā)電量的比例、各省市的平均風(fēng)功率密度、各省市輸電網(wǎng)的平均輸送容量、各省市輸電網(wǎng)的線損率、各省市輸電網(wǎng)的N-1通過(guò)率、各省市輸電網(wǎng)的N-2通過(guò)率、各省市風(fēng)電的標(biāo)桿上網(wǎng)電價(jià)、各省市風(fēng)電的上網(wǎng)電量、各省市風(fēng)電績(jī)效的綜合效率。最后本文結(jié)合我國(guó)目前各省市風(fēng)電績(jī)效的現(xiàn)狀,對(duì)未來(lái)風(fēng)電的發(fā)展提出了幾點(diǎn)建議。這對(duì)我國(guó)風(fēng)力發(fā)電績(jī)效的提高具有一定參考意義,并為我國(guó)實(shí)現(xiàn)節(jié)能減排目標(biāo)、制定相關(guān)政策和措施提供決策支持。
[Abstract]:Conventional energy sources, such as coal, oil and natural gas, have limited reserves and have adverse effects on the ecological environment when they are developed and used in large quantities. With the increasing shortage of energy and environmental pollution, it is of great economic and social significance to develop clean renewable energy. In recent years, renewable power generation technologies such as wind energy and solar energy have made breakthroughs, and the scale of grid has been increasing. Especially as a kind of renewable green energy, wind energy is not only clean, pollution-free, but also inexhaustible, and has the prospect of large-scale development and utilization. In recent years, the installed capacity of wind power in China has been increasing, which has become a major feature of the development of China's energy economy. Wind power, as a clean and renewable energy generation method, can alleviate the power shortage and promote the sustainable development of low-carbon environmental protection in China. In recent years, with the rapid development of new and renewable energy and power generation in the world, more and more attention has been paid to the performance of new energy and renewable energy generation. In this paper, the distribution and installation of wind resources in the world and the development status of wind power industry in China are introduced briefly. On this basis, the factors affecting wind power development in China are analyzed, including wind energy situation and energy structure, overcapacity and difficulties in grid-connected power generation, insufficient technical level and innovation ability, cost limitation and electricity price policy. Supporting policies and incentives. In this paper, the time dimension is introduced into the traditional DEA model to establish the dynamic evaluation model of wind power performance. From the angle of input and output, the pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency of wind power performance of 29 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the Central Government) in China from 2011-2014 are analyzed. And the comprehensive technical efficiency is evaluated one by one; Then the TOPSIS method is used to rank the results of the secondary evaluation of the provinces whose comprehensive technical efficiency has reached the effective level, so as to achieve the final ranking of the wind power performance of the provinces in China. At the same time, the evaluation results are deeply studied and compared, and the mechanism and driving force behind the difference of wind power performance in different provinces are analyzed. In order to further study the factors affecting wind power performance in China, this paper introduces the improved SCP paradigm, starting from three aspects: market structure, market behavior and market performance of wind power in China. The multivariate linear regression model is used to analyze the quantitative relationship among the three factors. The results of the model show that there is a long-term and stable equilibrium relationship among wind power market structure, market behavior and market performance in various provinces and cities of China. The main factors that affect the wind power performance of each province are as follows: the proportion of wind power generation in each province, the average wind power density of each province, the average transmission capacity of each province and city transmission network, the line loss rate of each province and city transmission network, the proportion of wind power generation in each province and city, the average wind power density of each province and city. The N-1 pass rate of each province and city transmission network, the N-2 pass rate of each province and city transmission network, the benchmarking electricity price of wind power in each province and city, the electricity quantity of wind power in every province and city, the comprehensive efficiency of wind power performance of each province and city. Finally, according to the current situation of wind power performance in various provinces and cities in China, this paper puts forward some suggestions for the development of wind power in the future. It has a certain reference significance for improving the performance of wind power generation in China, and provides decision support for our country to achieve the goal of energy saving and emission reduction, and to formulate relevant policies and measures.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)(北京)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F426.61

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本文編號(hào)：2363325