我國風力發(fā)電績效動態(tài)評價模型及績效提升策略研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-11-28 15:40
【摘要】：常規(guī)能源如煤炭、石油及天然氣等儲量有限,且在大量開發(fā)及使用時會對生態(tài)環(huán)境產(chǎn)生不利影響。隨著能源短缺與環(huán)境污染問題的日益嚴峻,使得大力發(fā)展清潔的可再生能源具有重要的經(jīng)濟意義與社會意義。近些年,風能、太陽能等可再生能源發(fā)電技術(shù)不斷取得突破,并網(wǎng)規(guī)模不斷增加。尤其是風能作為一種可再生的綠色能源,不僅潔凈、無污染,還取之不盡、用之不竭,具有大規(guī)模的可開發(fā)利用前景。近些年來,我國風電裝機容量不斷增長,己成為中國能源經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的一大特色。風電作為清潔的可再生能源發(fā)電方式,可緩解我國電力緊張,促進社會低碳環(huán)保的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。近些年,新能源及可再生能源電力在世界范圍內(nèi)快速發(fā)展,關(guān)于新能源及可再生能源發(fā)電績效的相關(guān)研究也越來越受到重視。本文首先簡要介紹了全球風資源的分布和裝機狀況,以及我國風電產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀;并在此基礎(chǔ)上分析出我國風電發(fā)展的影響因素,主要包括:風能狀況與能源結(jié)構(gòu)、產(chǎn)能過剩與并網(wǎng)發(fā)電困難、技術(shù)水平與創(chuàng)新能力不足、成本限制與電價政策、配套政策與激勵措施等。本文于傳統(tǒng)的DEA模型中引入時間維度建立風力發(fā)電績效動態(tài)評價模型,從投入與產(chǎn)出角度對2011-2014年中國29個省(自治區(qū)、直轄市)的風電績效的純技術(shù)效率、規(guī)模效率、以及綜合技術(shù)效率逐一進行評價;然后采用TOPSIS法對綜合技術(shù)效率已經(jīng)達到有效的省份進行二次評價的結(jié)果排序,從而實現(xiàn)對中國各省份風電績效的最終排名。同時對評價結(jié)果進行深入的研究與比較,分析出不同省份風電績效差別背后的機理及驅(qū)動力。為進一步研究影響我國風電績效的因素,本文引入了基于改進的SCP范式,從我國風電的市場結(jié)構(gòu)、市場行為、市場績效三方面出發(fā),應(yīng)用多元線性回歸模型分析三者之間的數(shù)量關(guān)系。通過模型結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn),我國各省市風電市場結(jié)構(gòu)、市場行為和市場績效之間確實存在著長期穩(wěn)定的均衡關(guān)系,并得知影響各省市風電績效的主要因素有:各省市風力發(fā)電量占該省總發(fā)電量的比例、各省市的平均風功率密度、各省市輸電網(wǎng)的平均輸送容量、各省市輸電網(wǎng)的線損率、各省市輸電網(wǎng)的N-1通過率、各省市輸電網(wǎng)的N-2通過率、各省市風電的標桿上網(wǎng)電價、各省市風電的上網(wǎng)電量、各省市風電績效的綜合效率。最后本文結(jié)合我國目前各省市風電績效的現(xiàn)狀,對未來風電的發(fā)展提出了幾點建議。這對我國風力發(fā)電績效的提高具有一定參考意義,并為我國實現(xiàn)節(jié)能減排目標、制定相關(guān)政策和措施提供決策支持。
[Abstract]:Conventional energy sources, such as coal, oil and natural gas, have limited reserves and have adverse effects on the ecological environment when they are developed and used in large quantities. With the increasing shortage of energy and environmental pollution, it is of great economic and social significance to develop clean renewable energy. In recent years, renewable power generation technologies such as wind energy and solar energy have made breakthroughs, and the scale of grid has been increasing. Especially as a kind of renewable green energy, wind energy is not only clean, pollution-free, but also inexhaustible, and has the prospect of large-scale development and utilization. In recent years, the installed capacity of wind power in China has been increasing, which has become a major feature of the development of China's energy economy. Wind power, as a clean and renewable energy generation method, can alleviate the power shortage and promote the sustainable development of low-carbon environmental protection in China. In recent years, with the rapid development of new and renewable energy and power generation in the world, more and more attention has been paid to the performance of new energy and renewable energy generation. In this paper, the distribution and installation of wind resources in the world and the development status of wind power industry in China are introduced briefly. On this basis, the factors affecting wind power development in China are analyzed, including wind energy situation and energy structure, overcapacity and difficulties in grid-connected power generation, insufficient technical level and innovation ability, cost limitation and electricity price policy. Supporting policies and incentives. In this paper, the time dimension is introduced into the traditional DEA model to establish the dynamic evaluation model of wind power performance. From the angle of input and output, the pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency of wind power performance of 29 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the Central Government) in China from 2011-2014 are analyzed. And the comprehensive technical efficiency is evaluated one by one; Then the TOPSIS method is used to rank the results of the secondary evaluation of the provinces whose comprehensive technical efficiency has reached the effective level, so as to achieve the final ranking of the wind power performance of the provinces in China. At the same time, the evaluation results are deeply studied and compared, and the mechanism and driving force behind the difference of wind power performance in different provinces are analyzed. In order to further study the factors affecting wind power performance in China, this paper introduces the improved SCP paradigm, starting from three aspects: market structure, market behavior and market performance of wind power in China. The multivariate linear regression model is used to analyze the quantitative relationship among the three factors. The results of the model show that there is a long-term and stable equilibrium relationship among wind power market structure, market behavior and market performance in various provinces and cities of China. The main factors that affect the wind power performance of each province are as follows: the proportion of wind power generation in each province, the average wind power density of each province, the average transmission capacity of each province and city transmission network, the line loss rate of each province and city transmission network, the proportion of wind power generation in each province and city, the average wind power density of each province and city. The N-1 pass rate of each province and city transmission network, the N-2 pass rate of each province and city transmission network, the benchmarking electricity price of wind power in each province and city, the electricity quantity of wind power in every province and city, the comprehensive efficiency of wind power performance of each province and city. Finally, according to the current situation of wind power performance in various provinces and cities in China, this paper puts forward some suggestions for the development of wind power in the future. It has a certain reference significance for improving the performance of wind power generation in China, and provides decision support for our country to achieve the goal of energy saving and emission reduction, and to formulate relevant policies and measures.
【學位授予單位】：華北電力大學(北京)
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F426.61
本文編號：2363325
[Abstract]:Conventional energy sources, such as coal, oil and natural gas, have limited reserves and have adverse effects on the ecological environment when they are developed and used in large quantities. With the increasing shortage of energy and environmental pollution, it is of great economic and social significance to develop clean renewable energy. In recent years, renewable power generation technologies such as wind energy and solar energy have made breakthroughs, and the scale of grid has been increasing. Especially as a kind of renewable green energy, wind energy is not only clean, pollution-free, but also inexhaustible, and has the prospect of large-scale development and utilization. In recent years, the installed capacity of wind power in China has been increasing, which has become a major feature of the development of China's energy economy. Wind power, as a clean and renewable energy generation method, can alleviate the power shortage and promote the sustainable development of low-carbon environmental protection in China. In recent years, with the rapid development of new and renewable energy and power generation in the world, more and more attention has been paid to the performance of new energy and renewable energy generation. In this paper, the distribution and installation of wind resources in the world and the development status of wind power industry in China are introduced briefly. On this basis, the factors affecting wind power development in China are analyzed, including wind energy situation and energy structure, overcapacity and difficulties in grid-connected power generation, insufficient technical level and innovation ability, cost limitation and electricity price policy. Supporting policies and incentives. In this paper, the time dimension is introduced into the traditional DEA model to establish the dynamic evaluation model of wind power performance. From the angle of input and output, the pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency of wind power performance of 29 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the Central Government) in China from 2011-2014 are analyzed. And the comprehensive technical efficiency is evaluated one by one; Then the TOPSIS method is used to rank the results of the secondary evaluation of the provinces whose comprehensive technical efficiency has reached the effective level, so as to achieve the final ranking of the wind power performance of the provinces in China. At the same time, the evaluation results are deeply studied and compared, and the mechanism and driving force behind the difference of wind power performance in different provinces are analyzed. In order to further study the factors affecting wind power performance in China, this paper introduces the improved SCP paradigm, starting from three aspects: market structure, market behavior and market performance of wind power in China. The multivariate linear regression model is used to analyze the quantitative relationship among the three factors. The results of the model show that there is a long-term and stable equilibrium relationship among wind power market structure, market behavior and market performance in various provinces and cities of China. The main factors that affect the wind power performance of each province are as follows: the proportion of wind power generation in each province, the average wind power density of each province, the average transmission capacity of each province and city transmission network, the line loss rate of each province and city transmission network, the proportion of wind power generation in each province and city, the average wind power density of each province and city. The N-1 pass rate of each province and city transmission network, the N-2 pass rate of each province and city transmission network, the benchmarking electricity price of wind power in each province and city, the electricity quantity of wind power in every province and city, the comprehensive efficiency of wind power performance of each province and city. Finally, according to the current situation of wind power performance in various provinces and cities in China, this paper puts forward some suggestions for the development of wind power in the future. It has a certain reference significance for improving the performance of wind power generation in China, and provides decision support for our country to achieve the goal of energy saving and emission reduction, and to formulate relevant policies and measures.
【學位授予單位】：華北電力大學(北京)
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F426.61
【參考文獻】
相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條
1 李美娟;陳國宏;林志炳;徐林明;;基于理想解法的動態(tài)評價方法研究[J];中國管理科學;2015年10期
2 劉沖;滕曉飛;劉玉嬌;;基于動態(tài)DEA模型的中國各省外商投資環(huán)境分析[J];東北財經(jīng)大學學報;2015年02期
3 章玲;方建鑫;周鵬;;新能源發(fā)電績效評價研究綜述——基于多指標評價方法[J];技術(shù)經(jīng)濟與管理研究;2014年01期
4 朱祖平;歐忠輝;李美娟;高群;;區(qū)域自主創(chuàng)新實力動態(tài)評價——基于改進二次加權(quán)法[J];北京理工大學學報(社會科學版);2014年01期
5 章玲;方建鑫;周鵬;;IV TI方法及其在新能源發(fā)電績效評價中的應(yīng)用[J];系統(tǒng)工程;2013年11期
6 李慧蘭;;我國風電發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀及前景展望[J];科學之友;2013年11期
7 譚忠富;鞠立偉;;中國風電發(fā)展綜述:歷史、現(xiàn)狀、趨勢及政策[J];華北電力大學學報(社會科學版);2013年02期
8 徐建中;謝晶;李迪;;我國大中型工業(yè)企業(yè)R&D活動效率變動實證研究——基于PCA-DEA-TOPSIS三步法[J];山西財經(jīng)大學學報;2013年02期
9 蔡立亞;郭劍鋒;姬強;;基于G8與BRIC的新能源及可再生能源發(fā)電績效動態(tài)評價[J];資源科學;2013年02期
10 朱珠;張琳;葉曉雯;張燕;;基于TOPSIS方法的土地利用綜合效益評價[J];經(jīng)濟地理;2012年10期
相關(guān)重要報紙文章 前1條
1 謝長軍;;解決棄風限電的思考與建議[N];中國電力報;2016年
相關(guān)博士學位論文 前1條
1 劉琳;新能源風電發(fā)展預(yù)測與評價模型研究[D];華北電力大學;2013年
相關(guān)碩士學位論文 前4條
1 方建鑫;考慮指標偏好間關(guān)聯(lián)的新能源發(fā)電績效評價及其在江蘇省的應(yīng)用[D];南京航空航天大學;2013年
2 陳明燕;風電項目社會效益綜合評價研究[D];西南石油大學;2012年
3 孫金;風電運行成本與價值分析[D];湖南大學;2012年
4 安艷麗;風力發(fā)電運行價值分析與研究[D];河北農(nóng)業(yè)大學;2011年
，本文編號：2363325
本文鏈接：http://sikaile.net/gongshangguanlilunwen/2363325.html
最近更新
教材專著
