基于Themis異常值的Y企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-10-14 15:59
【摘要】：當(dāng)今世界經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化趨勢不斷加速,資源在全世界范圍內(nèi)追求高效優(yōu)化配置。多元化的大時(shí)代背景,對企業(yè)的經(jīng)營管理也提出了更高的要求。在現(xiàn)代企業(yè)管理中,企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)狀況的管理始終處于管理的核心地位,貫穿企業(yè)生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營的全過程,并且隨著我國社會經(jīng)濟(jì)的轉(zhuǎn)型和企業(yè)管理機(jī)制的不斷升級與完善,財(cái)務(wù)管理在企業(yè)發(fā)展中的重要性不斷提高。對于企業(yè)管理者來說,如何通過多種方式及時(shí)發(fā)現(xiàn)隱藏的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn),同時(shí)采取相應(yīng)的措施化解財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn),清理財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)隱患就成了目前急需解決的問題。本文的研究目的就是從企業(yè)管理者的角度出發(fā),通過分析Y企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表,在充分挖掘報(bào)表潛在信息的基礎(chǔ)上,探討新的研究方法識別財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表的真實(shí)性,提前對Y企業(yè)的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行揭示。本文的研究內(nèi)容包括以下五個(gè)部分:第一部分,在對以往文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行分析的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合定性和定量分析的研究方法,介紹了國內(nèi)外對企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)問題研究的現(xiàn)狀。第二部分明確了財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的定義以及企業(yè)可能面臨的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的種類,對常用的企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析方法進(jìn)行了概述。第三部分,通過分析企業(yè)的短期償債能力、長期償債能力、營運(yùn)能力和盈利能力,以及對上市企業(yè)的市場價(jià)值比率為代表的傳統(tǒng)比率分析法來分析Y企業(yè)的財(cái)務(wù)狀況。第四部分,指出了傳統(tǒng)財(cái)務(wù)分析法的不足的同時(shí),引入Themis異常值分析模型,再次對Y企業(yè)連續(xù)三期的財(cái)務(wù)狀況進(jìn)行分析研究,其中包括模型的指標(biāo)體系的建立、模型的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析邏輯思路以及財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的等級評定,計(jì)算企業(yè)各個(gè)指標(biāo)的單項(xiàng)得分,并得出Y企業(yè)的綜合得分和評分等級。指出模型在發(fā)現(xiàn)Y企業(yè)報(bào)表粉飾跡象,探究Y企業(yè)資金運(yùn)用效率,揭示Y企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)成因,預(yù)測財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)方面的意義。最后,針對Y企業(yè)的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn),本文在第五部分提出了相應(yīng)的建議。本文運(yùn)用新的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)研究方法,以關(guān)注資金運(yùn)用效率為視角,通過構(gòu)建11獨(dú)特的財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)對企業(yè)的財(cái)務(wù)狀況進(jìn)行分析,迅速發(fā)現(xiàn)企業(yè)存在的各種財(cái)務(wù)粉飾報(bào)表造假行為,揭示企業(yè)融資的效率較低,借款規(guī)模過大,產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)單一,獲利能力低下,管理費(fèi)用和財(cái)務(wù)費(fèi)用飆升等問題,最后結(jié)合Y企業(yè)的特點(diǎn)筆者建議Y企業(yè)通過改善成本體系,負(fù)債結(jié)構(gòu),優(yōu)化產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)提高獲利等方式改善財(cái)務(wù)結(jié)構(gòu),降低財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn),也從Y企業(yè)內(nèi)部財(cái)務(wù)控制方面著手,對完善財(cái)務(wù)內(nèi)控制度提供指導(dǎo)意見。
[Abstract]:Nowadays, the trend of economic globalization in the world is accelerating, and resources are being allocated efficiently and optimally all over the world. Diversification of the background of the era, the management of enterprises also put forward higher requirements. In modern enterprise management, the management of enterprise financial situation is always in the core position of management, runs through the whole process of enterprise production and management, and with the transformation of social economy and the continuous upgrading and perfection of enterprise management mechanism in our country, The importance of financial management in the development of enterprises continues to improve. For enterprise managers, how to find hidden financial risks in a variety of ways in time, at the same time take appropriate measures to resolve financial risks and clear up hidden financial crisis has become an urgent problem. The purpose of this paper is to explore the new research method to identify the authenticity of financial statements by analyzing the financial statements of Y enterprises from the point of view of enterprise managers, and on the basis of fully excavating the potential information of financial statements. The financial risk of Y enterprise is revealed in advance. The research content of this paper includes the following five parts: the first part, on the basis of the analysis of the previous literature, combined with the qualitative and quantitative research methods, introduced the domestic and foreign research on the financial risk of enterprises. The second part clarifies the definition of financial risk and the types of financial risk that enterprises may face, and summarizes the common methods of enterprise financial risk analysis. In the third part, the financial situation of Y enterprise is analyzed by analyzing the short-term solvency, long-term solvency, operating ability and profitability, as well as the traditional ratio analysis method, which represents the market value ratio of listed enterprises. The fourth part points out the deficiency of the traditional financial analysis method, at the same time, introduces the Themis abnormal value analysis model, analyzes and studies the financial situation of Y enterprise for three consecutive periods, including the establishment of the index system of the model. The logical train of thought of financial risk analysis and the evaluation of financial risk are used to calculate the single score of each index of the enterprise and to obtain the comprehensive score and rating grade of Y enterprise. The paper points out the significance of the model in finding the whitewash signs of Y enterprise, exploring the efficiency of fund utilization, revealing the causes of financial risk in Y enterprise and predicting the financial risk. Finally, in view of Y enterprise's financial risk, this article puts forward the corresponding suggestion in the fifth part. This paper uses the new financial risk research method to pay attention to the efficiency of the use of funds, through the construction of 11 unique financial indicators to analyze the financial situation of enterprises, quickly found the existence of various financial whitewash statements fraud behavior. This paper reveals some problems such as low efficiency of enterprise financing, excessive scale of borrowing, single product structure, low profitability, soaring management and financial expenses, etc. Finally, the author suggests that Y enterprise should improve its cost system in combination with the characteristics of Y enterprise. In order to improve the financial structure and reduce the financial risk, the debt structure, the optimization of the product structure and the profit are improved, and the guidance for perfecting the financial internal control system is provided from the aspects of the internal financial control of Y enterprise.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湘潭大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F426.31;F406.7
本文編號：2270940
[Abstract]:Nowadays, the trend of economic globalization in the world is accelerating, and resources are being allocated efficiently and optimally all over the world. Diversification of the background of the era, the management of enterprises also put forward higher requirements. In modern enterprise management, the management of enterprise financial situation is always in the core position of management, runs through the whole process of enterprise production and management, and with the transformation of social economy and the continuous upgrading and perfection of enterprise management mechanism in our country, The importance of financial management in the development of enterprises continues to improve. For enterprise managers, how to find hidden financial risks in a variety of ways in time, at the same time take appropriate measures to resolve financial risks and clear up hidden financial crisis has become an urgent problem. The purpose of this paper is to explore the new research method to identify the authenticity of financial statements by analyzing the financial statements of Y enterprises from the point of view of enterprise managers, and on the basis of fully excavating the potential information of financial statements. The financial risk of Y enterprise is revealed in advance. The research content of this paper includes the following five parts: the first part, on the basis of the analysis of the previous literature, combined with the qualitative and quantitative research methods, introduced the domestic and foreign research on the financial risk of enterprises. The second part clarifies the definition of financial risk and the types of financial risk that enterprises may face, and summarizes the common methods of enterprise financial risk analysis. In the third part, the financial situation of Y enterprise is analyzed by analyzing the short-term solvency, long-term solvency, operating ability and profitability, as well as the traditional ratio analysis method, which represents the market value ratio of listed enterprises. The fourth part points out the deficiency of the traditional financial analysis method, at the same time, introduces the Themis abnormal value analysis model, analyzes and studies the financial situation of Y enterprise for three consecutive periods, including the establishment of the index system of the model. The logical train of thought of financial risk analysis and the evaluation of financial risk are used to calculate the single score of each index of the enterprise and to obtain the comprehensive score and rating grade of Y enterprise. The paper points out the significance of the model in finding the whitewash signs of Y enterprise, exploring the efficiency of fund utilization, revealing the causes of financial risk in Y enterprise and predicting the financial risk. Finally, in view of Y enterprise's financial risk, this article puts forward the corresponding suggestion in the fifth part. This paper uses the new financial risk research method to pay attention to the efficiency of the use of funds, through the construction of 11 unique financial indicators to analyze the financial situation of enterprises, quickly found the existence of various financial whitewash statements fraud behavior. This paper reveals some problems such as low efficiency of enterprise financing, excessive scale of borrowing, single product structure, low profitability, soaring management and financial expenses, etc. Finally, the author suggests that Y enterprise should improve its cost system in combination with the characteristics of Y enterprise. In order to improve the financial structure and reduce the financial risk, the debt structure, the optimization of the product structure and the profit are improved, and the guidance for perfecting the financial internal control system is provided from the aspects of the internal financial control of Y enterprise.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湘潭大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F426.31;F406.7
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