【摘要】：近年來(lái),中國(guó)和印度做為經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展最快的兩大經(jīng)濟(jì)體,在全球市場(chǎng)中倍受矚目。兩國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)總量和對(duì)外貿(mào)易發(fā)展迅猛,且都積極參與一帶一路、孟中印緬經(jīng)濟(jì)走廊、區(qū)域全面經(jīng)濟(jì)伙伴關(guān)系(RCEP)等區(qū)域性合作組織為其發(fā)展助力,社會(huì)各界不斷涌現(xiàn)出印度或?qū)②s超中國(guó)的言論。相對(duì)于出口規(guī)模,出口復(fù)雜度可以反映一國(guó)出口產(chǎn)品的質(zhì)量,決定其經(jīng)濟(jì)的長(zhǎng)期增長(zhǎng)。故本文對(duì)中印的制造業(yè)出口復(fù)雜度及其影響因素進(jìn)行了比較研究。首先,本文在對(duì)比了中印制造業(yè)出口現(xiàn)狀的基礎(chǔ)上,選取2006—2015年45個(gè)樣本國(guó)家(地區(qū))SITCRev.3三位碼編碼的205種制造業(yè)產(chǎn)品的出口數(shù)據(jù),采用Rodrik(2006)的出口復(fù)雜度的測(cè)度方法,測(cè)算出各國(guó)(地區(qū))制造業(yè)的出口復(fù)雜度,并就中印的出口復(fù)雜度情況做了比較分析。從產(chǎn)品層面來(lái)看,世界水平制造業(yè)產(chǎn)品的出口復(fù)雜度得到顯著提高;從行業(yè)層面來(lái)看,整體來(lái)講,中印制造業(yè)行業(yè)出口復(fù)雜度在波動(dòng)中呈增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì),但是不同行業(yè)之間存在較大的差別;從國(guó)家層面來(lái)看,中國(guó)和印度制造業(yè)出口復(fù)雜度都有顯著提升,且中國(guó)的出口復(fù)雜高于印度,但印度增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭強(qiáng)勁。其次,為探究?jī)蓢?guó)出口復(fù)雜度的提升受哪些因素的影響及影響程度如何,本文結(jié)合相關(guān)理論引入技術(shù)創(chuàng)新、人力資本、人口總數(shù)、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)、外商直接投資和金融發(fā)展六個(gè)因素,通過(guò)構(gòu)建模型,分別對(duì)兩國(guó)出口復(fù)雜度的影響因素進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析。結(jié)果表明,以上六個(gè)要素對(duì)中印制造業(yè)出口復(fù)雜度的影響方向和影響程度都有所不同。最后,根據(jù)對(duì)上述結(jié)果的分析,對(duì)提升中國(guó)制造業(yè)出口復(fù)雜度、優(yōu)化中國(guó)制造業(yè)對(duì)外貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)提出了相關(guān)對(duì)策建議。
[Abstract]:In recent years, China and India, the two fastest-growing economies, have attracted much attention in global markets. The total economic volume and foreign trade of the two countries have developed rapidly, and both have actively participated in regional cooperation organizations such as Belt and Road, the Mencia-China Indo-Myanmar Economic Corridor, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), and other regional cooperation organizations that have contributed to its development. There is a steady stream of talk that India may overtake China. Relative to export scale, export complexity can reflect the quality of a country's export products and determine its long-term economic growth. Therefore, this paper makes a comparative study on the manufacturing export complexity and its influencing factors between China and India. First of all, on the basis of comparing the current situation of manufacturing exports between China and India, this paper selects the export data of 45 sample countries (regions) with SITCRev.3 three-digit code from 2006 to 2015, and adopts the method of measuring the export complexity of Rodrik (2006). The export complexity of manufacturing industry is calculated and compared with that of India and China. From the product level, the export complexity of the world level manufacturing products has been significantly increased. From the industry level, overall, the export complexity of the Sino-Indian manufacturing industry has shown an increasing trend in the fluctuations. But there are big differences between industries; at the national level, both Chinese and Indian manufacturing export complexity has increased significantly, and China's exports are more complex than India's, but India's growth momentum is strong. Secondly, in order to find out which factors affect the increase of export complexity, this paper introduces technology innovation, human capital, total population, infrastructure construction, combined with relevant theories. Foreign direct investment (FDI) and financial development are the six factors that influence the export complexity of the two countries. The results show that the above six factors have different influence on the export complexity of China and India. Finally, based on the analysis of the above results, the author puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions to improve the export complexity of China's manufacturing industry and optimize the foreign trade structure of China's manufacturing industry.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：云南師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F752.62;F753.51;F414

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