【摘要】：“十三五”規(guī)劃將醫(yī)藥產(chǎn)業(yè)劃為重點發(fā)展產(chǎn)業(yè)之一。新藥研發(fā)是醫(yī)藥產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的原動力,而研發(fā)成果的轉(zhuǎn)化依賴于對未來收益的可靠計量與評估,因此新藥研發(fā)的評估構成了醫(yī)藥產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的重要組成部分,對新藥研發(fā)價值的評估也成為了當前整個行業(yè)關注的重點領域。本文重點研究內(nèi)容即是新藥研究價值評估過程所涉及的評估方法。在進行資產(chǎn)評估時常使用的辦法主要有三種,即市場法、收益法和成本法,即使傳統(tǒng)辦法各有特點,但面對某些特定對象如新藥研發(fā)時,傳統(tǒng)方法并不能發(fā)揮很好的作用。成本法中研發(fā)成本的研究成果存在弱對稱性,導致評估結果的實際價值差異明顯。市場法中可比案例缺乏,因為市場法中可作為可比案例的基礎相當薄弱。收益法中新藥研發(fā)價值的收益存在不確定性,這些都導致傳統(tǒng)方法無法適用于該類資產(chǎn)的評估。本文在對情景分析法的實質(zhì)分析基礎上,著重探討了決策樹法的具體運用,構建了該方法的測算模型,并就參數(shù)選擇做了具體的說明。特別折現(xiàn)率、成功率、自由現(xiàn)金流以及階段時間的劃分等這些參數(shù)的求取。做了充分的論證闡述。并在文章的后半部分采用實際案例進行說明,將理論與實際應用相結合,闡釋該方法的具體應用。本文的結論得出情景分析法可應用于新藥研發(fā)的價值評估,不足之處是該方法的參數(shù)測算具有一定的主觀性,前期成本需要估算實際發(fā)生的成本,這對該方法的運用存在一定的限制。該類問題將是本文后續(xù)研究的內(nèi)容。
[Abstract]:The 13 th-5-year-plan classifies the pharmaceutical industry as one of the key development industries. Research and development of new drugs is the driving force of the development of pharmaceutical industry, and the transformation of research and development results depends on the reliable measurement and evaluation of future benefits. Therefore, the evaluation of new drug research and development constitutes an important part of the development of the pharmaceutical industry. Evaluation of the value of new drug research and development has become the current focus of the industry. This paper focuses on the evaluation methods involved in the evaluation process of new drug research value. There are mainly three methods used in asset evaluation, namely, market approach, income approach and cost method. Although the traditional methods have their own characteristics, the traditional methods can not play a good role in the face of some specific objects, such as the research and development of new drugs. There is a weak symmetry in the research results of R & D cost in cost method, which leads to the difference of the actual value of the evaluation results. There is a lack of comparable cases in market law because the basis for comparable cases in market law is rather weak. There is uncertainty about the value of new drug research and development in the income approach, which leads to the traditional method can not be applied to the evaluation of this kind of assets. Based on the analysis of the essence of scenario analysis, this paper mainly discusses the application of decision tree method, constructs the measuring model of this method, and explains the selection of parameters in detail. Special discount rate, success rate, free cash flow and the division of stage time are obtained. A full demonstration is made. In the second half of this paper, a practical case is used to explain the concrete application of the method by combining the theory with the practical application. The conclusion of this paper is that scenario analysis can be used to evaluate the value of new drug research and development. There are some limitations on the application of this method. This kind of problem will be the content of the following research in this paper.
【學位授予單位】：江西財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F406.7;F426.72

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