【摘要】：2016年是中國"十三五"規(guī)劃的開局之年,相關(guān)部門陸續(xù)發(fā)布了油氣資源領(lǐng)域的綱領(lǐng)性文件,對全國油氣資源勘查開采制定了詳細(xì)的規(guī)劃。對相關(guān)規(guī)劃實(shí)施效果進(jìn)行及時(shí)的評估、提出改善意見建議,對于維護(hù)國家油氣資源安全、規(guī)范資源勘查開發(fā)意義重大。為此,從石油、常規(guī)天然氣、非常規(guī)天然氣等三個(gè)方面梳理了相關(guān)規(guī)劃的目標(biāo),并對實(shí)施進(jìn)展進(jìn)行了評估。結(jié)果表明:①2016年我國石油、天然氣、煤層氣新增探明地質(zhì)儲量分別為9.14×10~8 t、7 265.59×10~8 m~3和576.12×10~8 m~3,完成各年均規(guī)劃目標(biāo)的91.40%、121.09%和68.5 9%,頁巖氣無新發(fā)現(xiàn);②石油、天然氣、煤層氣和頁巖氣產(chǎn)量分別為1.997×10~8 t、1 231.72×10~8 m~3、168.51×10~8 m~3和78.82×10~8 m~3,完成各年均規(guī)劃目標(biāo)的99.85%、72.45%、105.32%和26.27%,其中石油產(chǎn)量同比減少1 486×10~4 t,降幅為6.93%,為2008年金融危機(jī)以來首次減產(chǎn);③受低油價(jià)和投資持續(xù)下降的影響,石油、天然氣產(chǎn)能建設(shè)相比"十二五"期間年均產(chǎn)能建設(shè)降幅約30%、50%,油氣產(chǎn)業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展形勢嚴(yán)峻。結(jié)論認(rèn)為:在持續(xù)低油價(jià)的形勢下,僅靠現(xiàn)有體制和技術(shù)完成"十三五"全國油氣勘查開采規(guī)劃目標(biāo)難度較大,迫切需要加快油氣體制機(jī)制改革、強(qiáng)化技術(shù)創(chuàng)新、穩(wěn)定并努力增加勘查開采投入,以穩(wěn)定石油、增加天然氣產(chǎn)能建設(shè)規(guī)模,提高國內(nèi)能源資源供應(yīng)保障能力。
[Abstract]:2016 is the beginning of the 13th Five-Year Plan of China. The relevant departments have successively issued programmatic documents in the field of oil and gas resources and formulated detailed plans for the exploration and exploitation of oil and gas resources throughout the country. It is of great significance for the national oil and gas resources security and the standardization of the exploration and development of oil and gas resources to carry out timely evaluation of the implementation effect of the relevant plans and put forward suggestions for improving the national oil and gas resources. For this reason, this paper combs the related planning goals from three aspects: oil, conventional natural gas and unconventional natural gas, and evaluates the progress of implementation. The results show that: (1) the newly proved geological reserves of petroleum, natural gas and coalbed methane in China in 2016 are 9.14 脳 10 ~ (8) t ~ (7) 265.59 脳 10 ~ (8) m ~ (3) and 576.12 脳 10 ~ (8) m ~ (3) respectively, and 91.40% and 68.59% of the annual planning targets have been completed respectively, and there is no new discovery of 2 oil and natural gas in shale gas. The production of coalbed methane and shale gas were 1.997 脳 10 ~ (8) t ~ (-1) 231.72 脳 10 ~ (8) t ~ (-1) and 78.82 脳 10 ~ (8) ~ (8) m ~ (3), respectively. The oil production decreased by 1.486 脳 10 ~ (4) t, which was the first reduction since the financial crisis in 2008. Under the influence of low oil price and continuous decrease of investment, the construction of oil and natural gas production capacity is about 30% 50% lower than that of the 12th Five-Year Plan period. The situation of sustainable development of oil and gas industry is severe. The conclusion is that under the situation of persistent low oil price, it is difficult to complete the target of the "13th Five-Year Plan" of oil and gas exploration and production only by the existing system and technology. It is urgent to speed up the reform of oil and gas system and mechanism and strengthen technological innovation. To stabilize and increase the investment in exploration and exploitation, to stabilize oil, to increase the scale of natural gas production capacity construction, and to improve the supply and support capacity of domestic energy resources.
【作者單位】： 國土資源部油氣資源戰(zhàn)略研究中心;國土資源部國土資源戰(zhàn)略研究重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室;
【基金】：國土資源部規(guī)劃司委托國土資源部油氣資源戰(zhàn)略研究中心重點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目“全國礦產(chǎn)資源規(guī)劃(2016—2020年)實(shí)施情況評估研究”(編號:2016YQKY0103)
【分類號】：F426.22

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