【摘要】：鐵礦石的預期價格對礦業(yè)公司的決策異常重要,由于影響鐵礦石價格的因素眾多,加之近些年價格波動明顯,對其進行準確預測較為困難�；诩訖嘁苿悠骄�,綜合分析鐵礦石價格的可能走勢,調整權值,考慮最近三年的鐵礦石歷史價格,得到鐵礦石市場價格的改進預測值,分別為2017年525.36元/t、2018年535.13元/t、2019年548.13元/t、2020年551.67元/t,年平均增長率約為3.73%。結合各大相關機構的預測研究,通過概率分布得出未來幾年鐵礦石價格年均3.73%的增長率可信度較高,可為相關企業(yè)決策提供參考。
[Abstract]:The expected price of iron ore is very important to the decision of the mining company. It is difficult to predict the iron ore price accurately because of the many factors influencing the iron ore price and the obvious fluctuation of the price in recent years. Based on the weighted moving average method, the possible trend of iron ore price is analyzed synthetically, the weight value is adjusted, and considering the historical price of iron ore in the last three years, the improved forecast value of iron ore market price is obtained. It's 525.36 yuan / t in 2017, $535.13 / t in 2018, $548.13 / t in 2019, and $551.67 / t in 2020, with an average annual growth rate of about 3.73 yuan. Combined with the prediction research of the major related institutions, the probability distribution shows that the average annual growth rate of iron ore prices in the next few years is relatively high, which can be used as a reference for the decision making of related enterprises.
【作者單位】： 東北大學資源與土木工程學院;
【基金】：國家自然科學基金項目資助(編號:51474049,51674062) 國家青年基金項目資助(編號:51604061) 遼寧省自然科學基金項目資助(編號:2014020040) 遼寧省教育廳重點實驗室基礎研究項目資助(編號:LZ2014020)
【分類號】：F426.1;F764

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