本文選題：價值評估 + 風電場��； 參考：《華北電力大學(xué)(北京)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來,在國家鼓勵和支持新能源發(fā)展相關(guān)政策的引導(dǎo)下,我國已成為全球新能源規(guī)模最大、發(fā)展最快的國家,風電并網(wǎng)容量近10年增長了100倍。但另一方面,在經(jīng)濟增速放緩和用電市場疲軟的形勢下,三北地區(qū)棄風現(xiàn)象日益嚴重,不利于風電產(chǎn)業(yè)健康發(fā)展和正確引導(dǎo)風電場的投資行為。與傳統(tǒng)能源相比,在評估風電場價值時,往往忽略風電能源的環(huán)境和社會效益,其價值就會被低估。同時,影響風電場價值的評估因素未來也存在著很大的不確定性。因此,科學(xué)、合理的評估風電場的整體價值就顯得尤為重要。本文基于實物期權(quán)理論與傳統(tǒng)價值評估理論,對風電場進行價值評估研究。首先,本文針對我國三北風電場的特點,深入開展現(xiàn)狀調(diào)研,從風能資源、風電技術(shù)、制造成本、政策環(huán)境、棄風限電等方面調(diào)研了國內(nèi)風電發(fā)展情況,揭示風電場價值研究的必要性,為風電場價值評估奠定基礎(chǔ)。其次,分析了傳統(tǒng)價值評估方法在評估風電場價值中的局限性,并開展了實物期權(quán)模型用于風電場價值評估的可行性分析,充分考慮了風力發(fā)電的潛在價值,將實物期權(quán)理論應(yīng)用到風電場價值評估領(lǐng)域。使用PEST分析法對影響風電場價值的外在因素歸類分析,并從年利用小時數(shù)、風電上網(wǎng)電價以及可再生能源財政補貼等方面分析風電場的實際經(jīng)濟效益及逐年凈現(xiàn)金流量;再次,確定了影響風電場的價值評估關(guān)鍵因素,進行參數(shù)設(shè)計,結(jié)合實物期權(quán)理論推導(dǎo)出風電場Black-Scholes期權(quán)定價模型,并在該模型的基礎(chǔ)上改良,引入了二叉樹定價模型,將這兩個模型所計算期權(quán)價值加權(quán)作為風電場投資項目的最終期權(quán)價值,并結(jié)合貼現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金流法量化風電場靜態(tài)價值,從而實現(xiàn)風電場價值的全面評估。最后,以遼寧昌圖大葦子風電場為例開展計算驗證及關(guān)鍵影響因素的敏感性分析。應(yīng)用已建立價值評估模型對風電場開展實例研究,驗證本文對風電場價值評估方法和模型的正確性,為風電行業(yè)投資決策提供量化技術(shù)支撐。本論文的研究成果,能夠為風電場運營收益的計算、預(yù)測和評價提供理論基礎(chǔ)。文中所構(gòu)建的模型能為風電行業(yè)投資決策提供量化技術(shù)支撐,為政府和企業(yè)對風電場的投資提供一定的指導(dǎo)。
[Abstract]:In recent years, under the guidance of the national policies to encourage and support the development of new energy, China has become the largest and fastest-growing country in the world with the wind power grid capacity increasing 100 times in the past 10 years. On the other hand, in the situation of slow economic growth and weak electricity market, the phenomenon of abandoning wind in Sanbei area is becoming more and more serious, which is not conducive to the healthy development of wind power industry and the correct guide of investment behavior of wind farm. Compared with traditional energy, the value of wind farm is underestimated if the environmental and social benefits of wind power are neglected. At the same time, there is also a lot of uncertainty about the evaluation factors that affect the value of wind farm in the future. Therefore, scientific and reasonable evaluation of the overall value of wind farms is particularly important. Based on the real option theory and the traditional valuation theory, this paper studies the value evaluation of wind farm. First of all, according to the characteristics of Sanbei wind farm in China, this paper carries out in-depth research on the current situation, and investigates the development of domestic wind power from wind energy resources, wind power technology, manufacturing costs, policy environment, abandonment of wind power and limited electricity, and so on. This paper reveals the necessity of wind farm value research and lays a foundation for wind farm value evaluation. Secondly, the limitations of traditional valuation methods in wind farm evaluation are analyzed, and the feasibility analysis of using real option model to evaluate wind farm value is carried out, which fully considers the potential value of wind power generation. The real option theory is applied to the field of wind farm value evaluation. The paper classifies and analyzes the external factors that affect the value of wind farm by pest analysis, and analyzes the actual economic benefits and annual net cash flow of wind farm from the aspects of the number of hours used each year, the electricity price of wind power and the financial subsidy of renewable energy. The key factors affecting the value evaluation of wind farm are determined, the parameter design is carried out, and the Black-Scholes option pricing model of wind farm is derived by combining the real option theory. On the basis of this model, the binomial tree pricing model is introduced. The weighted value of options calculated by these two models is used as the final option value of wind farm investment project, and the static value of wind farm is quantified by discounted cash flow method, so as to realize the comprehensive evaluation of wind farm value. Finally, a case study of Daweizi wind farm in Changtu, Liaoning Province, was carried out to verify the results and to analyze the sensitivity of the key factors. A case study on wind farm is carried out by using the established value assessment model, which verifies the correctness of the method and model of wind farm value evaluation, and provides the quantitative technical support for investment decision of wind power industry. The research results of this paper can provide theoretical basis for calculation, prediction and evaluation of wind farm operating income. The model can provide quantitative technical support for investment decision of wind power industry and provide some guidance for government and enterprises to invest in wind farm.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)(北京)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F426.61

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