本文選題：江西 + 能源��； 參考：《江西財經(jīng)大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：江西省是典型的一次能源匱乏省份,隨著經(jīng)濟社會的不斷發(fā)展,未來能源的需求將愈加旺盛,受限于能源資源稟賦特點,能源供需矛盾將逐步顯現(xiàn)。今后一段時期,在盡可能發(fā)掘自身潛能的同時,接受區(qū)外來電成為提高江西中長期能源供應(yīng)安全的必然選擇,意味著迫切需要明確特高壓發(fā)展的戰(zhàn)略,明確“外電入贛”通道建設(shè)的時序及規(guī)模,這既是保障全省能源供應(yīng)安全的現(xiàn)實需要,也是助推江西發(fā)展升級綠色崛起的戰(zhàn)略要求。本文主要通過收集現(xiàn)有能源發(fā)展基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù),采用SWOT、PEST戰(zhàn)略分析方法對江西發(fā)展特高壓所處內(nèi)外部環(huán)境進行分析,結(jié)合全國能源供應(yīng)戰(zhàn)略及特高壓發(fā)展格局,全面闡述江西能源供應(yīng)現(xiàn)狀及未來電力供需形勢,分析江西發(fā)展特高壓面臨的機遇及挑戰(zhàn),從最大化江西能源發(fā)展優(yōu)勢的角度出發(fā),提出江西特高壓發(fā)展的發(fā)展方向,從而確定特高壓入贛的總體戰(zhàn)略。最后,基于可能區(qū)外來電的技術(shù)、電價等因素進行比較分析,從而得出特高壓入贛的建議方案。本文共分為七個部分。第一部分是緒論,主要闡述論文的研究背景及意義,并對國內(nèi)外特高壓的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀進行綜述。第二部分主要對發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略研究的有關(guān)理論方法進行簡述。第三部分對江西省發(fā)展特高壓的外部環(huán)境進行分析,先從所處的外部宏觀環(huán)境進行綜合分析,再結(jié)合國內(nèi)特高壓發(fā)展的總體格局,提出江西省發(fā)展特高壓面臨的機遇和挑戰(zhàn)。第四部分對江西省發(fā)展特高壓的內(nèi)部條件進行分析,以本省資源稟賦情況及電源、電網(wǎng)發(fā)展情況為基礎(chǔ),結(jié)合能源供需形勢對能源供應(yīng)的現(xiàn)狀進行分析,并結(jié)合歷史數(shù)據(jù)對未來負荷水平進行合理預(yù)測,最后得出江西電力空間的分析結(jié)論。第五部分對江西省特高壓發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略選擇進行深入分析,根據(jù)受電時機、受電規(guī)模、送電特性、落地電價、電力落點等因素確定特高壓入贛總體戰(zhàn)略定位,并結(jié)合國內(nèi)能源流方向、區(qū)外來電方向、區(qū)外來電電價等因素確定特高壓入贛的最終方案。第六部分提出江西省實施特高壓發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略的有關(guān)建議。第七部分是論文的結(jié)論。研究表明,我國能源資源與電力負荷呈現(xiàn)逆向分布的特點,決定著特高壓輸電是優(yōu)化能源資源配置的重要途徑,江西省特高壓的發(fā)展既面臨著政策和技術(shù)等機遇,也面臨著選點和時機等挑戰(zhàn)。江西省能源資源稟賦先天不足,電源供應(yīng)長期以煤電為主,電網(wǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)不夠堅強,能源自給率持續(xù)走低,隨著江西省能源負荷水平的不斷走高,江西省能源缺口將進一步擴大。根據(jù)平衡計算原則,在中負荷水平方案下,全省2020年電力空間為600萬千瓦,2025年電力空間約1650萬千瓦,2030年達到3000萬千瓦。以中負荷水平為基礎(chǔ)研究水平,結(jié)合受電時機、受電規(guī)模、送電特性、落地電價、電力落點等特點,特高壓入贛時機以2020年以后為優(yōu),規(guī)模不宜超過800萬千瓦。根據(jù)全國能源流方向及區(qū)外電力有關(guān)情況,特高壓入贛電力選擇以白鶴灘水電為最優(yōu)。要實施好特高壓發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略,江西省要做好以下幾點,一是加強對接,強化規(guī)劃引領(lǐng)作用;二是夯實基礎(chǔ),積極創(chuàng)造受電條件;三是作好宣傳,合理引導輿論方向。
[Abstract]:Jiangxi province is a typical energy shortage province. With the continuous development of economy and society, the demand for energy will be more and more vigorous in the future, limited to the characteristics of energy resource endowment. The contradiction of energy supply and demand will gradually appear. In the future, while exploring its potential as far as possible, the acceptance of foreign power in the area becomes to improve the supply of medium and long term energy supply in Jiangxi. The inevitable choice of safety means an urgent need to clear the strategy of the development of UHV and clear the time sequence and scale of the construction of the "power to the Jiangxi" channel, which is not only a practical need to guarantee the energy supply of the province, but also a strategic requirement to boost the green rise of Jiangxi's development and upgrade. This article mainly collects the basic data of the existing energy development. The SWOT and PEST strategic analysis methods are used to analyze the internal and external environment of Jiangxi's development of UHV. Combined with the national energy supply strategy and the UHV development pattern, the current energy supply situation in Jiangxi and the future power supply and demand situation are fully expounded. The opportunities and challenges facing Jiangxi's development of UHV are analyzed, and the advantages of Jiangxi energy development will be maximized. From the point of view, the development direction of Jiangxi UHV development is put forward, thus the overall strategy of UHV into Jiangxi is determined. Finally, based on the comparative analysis of the technology and electricity price of foreign electricity in the possible area, the proposal of the UHV into Jiangxi is obtained. This paper is divided into seven parts. The first part is the introduction, which mainly expounds the research of the paper. The background and significance, and a summary of the development status of UHV at home and abroad. The second part mainly describes the theories and methods of the development strategy research. The third part analyses the external environment of the development of the UHV in Jiangxi province. First, the comprehensive analysis is carried out from the external macro environment, and then the overall development of the high voltage in China is combined with the overall development of the domestic high voltage. The fourth part analyses the internal conditions of the development of the UHV in Jiangxi Province in the fourth part, based on the resources endowment and power supply, the development of the power grid, and analyzes the current situation of energy supply in combination with the situation of energy supply and demand, and combines the historical data to the future load level. The fifth part analyses the strategic choice of the UHV development in Jiangxi province. The fifth part makes an in-depth analysis of the strategic choice of the UHV development in Jiangxi Province, and determines the overall strategic positioning of the UHV into Jiangxi in accordance with the time of the electricity receiving, the scale of the electricity, the power supply, the land price, the power drop and so on, and combines the direction of the domestic energy flow and the foreign power. In the sixth part, the sixth part puts forward some suggestions on the implementation of the UHV development strategy. The seventh part is the conclusion of the paper. The study shows that the energy resources and the power load in our country are in reverse distribution, and the UHV transmission is determined to optimize the allocation of energy resources. The important way is that the development of UHP in Jiangxi is not only facing the opportunities of policy and technology, but also facing the challenge of selection and opportunity. The energy resources endowment in Jiangxi province is not enough, the power supply is mainly coal and electricity, the structure of the power grid is not strong enough, the energy self supply rate continues to go down, and the energy load level of Jiangxi province continues to go higher, Jiangxi The energy gap in the province will be further expanded. Under the balance calculation principle, the power space in 2020 is 6 million kW in the province, the power space is about 16 million 500 thousand KW in 2025 and 30 million kilowatts in 2030. The base research level is based on the medium load level, with the power time, the power supply scale, the power supply, the electricity price and the power fall. According to the national energy flow direction and the electric power related to and out of the region, Jiangxi province should do well the following points in Jiangxi province. One is to strengthen the docking and strengthen the planning guidance. The two is to consolidate the foundation and create the conditions for receiving electricity positively; three, we should make good publicity and guide the direction of public opinion rationally.
【學位授予單位】：江西財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F426.61;TM723

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