本文選題：云南有色金屬產(chǎn)業(yè) + 投入產(chǎn)出分析　； 參考：《云南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)中部門(mén)間總是通過(guò)投入產(chǎn)出關(guān)系而緊密聯(lián)系,產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展不直接均勻影響經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展情況,而是首先作用于某一個(gè)或者幾個(gè)密切關(guān)聯(lián)的產(chǎn)業(yè),然后再通過(guò)這些產(chǎn)業(yè)聯(lián)動(dòng)影響到其他關(guān)聯(lián)部門(mén),之后進(jìn)一步對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)產(chǎn)生作用。云南有色金屬資源豐富,因此在“新常態(tài)”背景下,通過(guò)投入產(chǎn)出關(guān)系研究云南有色金屬產(chǎn)業(yè)的關(guān)聯(lián)產(chǎn)業(yè),分析云南有色金屬產(chǎn)業(yè)的生產(chǎn)效率現(xiàn)狀,再進(jìn)一步分析云南有色金屬產(chǎn)業(yè)對(duì)其他產(chǎn)業(yè)的靜態(tài)、動(dòng)態(tài)聯(lián)動(dòng)效應(yīng),對(duì)準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測(cè)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,為政策建議提供依據(jù),實(shí)現(xiàn)整個(gè)云南經(jīng)濟(jì)更加平穩(wěn)、健康發(fā)展有著重要現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文在云南省各部門(mén)投入產(chǎn)出關(guān)系的基礎(chǔ)上,通過(guò)計(jì)算并分析2002年至2012年43部門(mén)前向、后向關(guān)聯(lián)系數(shù),分析出云南省整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)中與有色金屬產(chǎn)業(yè)前向、后向關(guān)聯(lián)的產(chǎn)業(yè)部門(mén)共23個(gè)。為進(jìn)一步分析云南有色金屬產(chǎn)業(yè)現(xiàn)狀,將全國(guó)共31個(gè)省市的有色金屬產(chǎn)業(yè)生產(chǎn)效率進(jìn)行三階段DEA分析。再以云南有色金屬產(chǎn)業(yè)為主體,進(jìn)一步引入26部門(mén)可計(jì)算一般均衡(CGE)模型,對(duì)云南有色金屬產(chǎn)業(yè)受到某一沖擊后整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)部門(mén)的靜態(tài)聯(lián)動(dòng)效應(yīng)進(jìn)行分析。之后引入26部門(mén)的動(dòng)態(tài)隨機(jī)一般均衡(DSGE)模型,分析26個(gè)部門(mén)在受到單位1的沖擊時(shí),在未來(lái)60期對(duì)各個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)部門(mén)的動(dòng)態(tài)聯(lián)動(dòng)效應(yīng),較好地模擬現(xiàn)實(shí)情況下有色金屬產(chǎn)業(yè)受到外界沖擊時(shí),其他各個(gè)關(guān)聯(lián)部門(mén)的聯(lián)動(dòng)情況。本文得到的政策建議主要為:一是從空間上,當(dāng)有色金屬產(chǎn)業(yè)價(jià)格下降幅度大于40%時(shí),除了考慮對(duì)有色金屬產(chǎn)業(yè)本身的影響,還需要考慮與其關(guān)聯(lián)程度密切的電力、熱力生產(chǎn)和供應(yīng)等部門(mén);當(dāng)云南有色金屬產(chǎn)品價(jià)格上漲時(shí),大多下游部門(mén)的生產(chǎn)成本將提高,應(yīng)鼓勵(lì)這些部門(mén)從其他角度降低成本,且價(jià)格上漲時(shí)有色金屬產(chǎn)業(yè)利益主要從企業(yè)、居民向政府利益分配轉(zhuǎn)移,可以考慮對(duì)企業(yè)、居民的相應(yīng)補(bǔ)貼。二是從時(shí)間上,當(dāng)政策對(duì)有色金屬產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)生沖擊時(shí),除了考慮其產(chǎn)業(yè)本身,應(yīng)同時(shí)考慮對(duì)電器、機(jī)械和器材部門(mén),通用設(shè)備、金屬制品等部門(mén)的帶動(dòng)作用,對(duì)信息傳輸部門(mén)等部門(mén)的替代作用,提前對(duì)相關(guān)部門(mén)進(jìn)行政策支持。
[Abstract]:In the economic system, sectors are always closely linked by input-output relations. The development of industries does not directly affect the development of the economy, but first acts on one or more closely related industries. Then through these industrial linkage to other related sectors, and then further impact on the economic system. Yunnan is rich in nonferrous metal resources. Therefore, under the background of "new normal", the paper studies the related industries of Yunnan nonferrous metal industry through input-output relationship, and analyzes the present production efficiency of Yunnan nonferrous metal industry. Further analysis of the static and dynamic linkage effect of Yunnan nonferrous metal industry to other industries is of great practical significance in accurately predicting economic development, providing the basis for policy suggestions, and achieving a more stable and healthy development of the whole Yunnan economy. On the basis of the input-output relationship of various departments in Yunnan Province, this paper, by calculating and analyzing the forward and backward correlation coefficients of 43 departments from 2002 to 2012, analyzes the forward direction of the non-ferrous metal industry in the whole economic system of Yunnan Province. There are 23 backward-related industrial departments. In order to further analyze the present situation of nonferrous metal industry in Yunnan, the production efficiency of nonferrous metal industry in 31 provinces and cities in China was analyzed by three-stage DEA. Taking Yunnan nonferrous metal industry as the main body, 26 departments can calculate the general equilibrium CGE model is further introduced to analyze the static linkage effect of Yunnan nonferrous metal industry after a certain impact on the whole economic sector. Then the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of 26 departments is introduced to analyze the dynamic linkage effect of 26 departments in the next 60 periods under the impact of unit 1. When the non-ferrous metal industry is impacted by the outside world, the linkage of other related departments is well simulated. The policy recommendations obtained in this paper are as follows: first, in space, when the price of the non-ferrous metal industry falls by more than 40 percent, in addition to considering the impact on the non-ferrous metal industry itself, it is also necessary to consider the power that is closely related to the non-ferrous metal industry. Sectors such as thermal production and supply; when prices for non-ferrous metals in Yunnan rise, production costs will rise in most downstream sectors, and these sectors should be encouraged to reduce costs from other perspectives. And when the price increases, the benefits of non-ferrous metal industry are mainly transferred from enterprises, residents to the government benefit distribution, we can consider the corresponding subsidies to enterprises and residents. Second, when the policy impacts the nonferrous metal industry, in addition to considering the industry itself, it should also consider the leading role of the electrical, mechanical and equipment sectors, general equipment, metal products, and so on. To the information transmission department and so on the substitution function, carries on the policy support to the related department in advance.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：云南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F426.32

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 趙婧雯;劉春學(xué);張欽禮;;基于三階段DEA模型的云南有色金屬產(chǎn)業(yè)效率影響機(jī)理研究[J];湖北師范大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(哲學(xué)社會(huì)科學(xué)版);2017年03期

2 趙婧雯;劉春學(xué);張欽禮;;云南有色金屬產(chǎn)業(yè)關(guān)聯(lián)程度及影響分析[J];中國(guó)礦業(yè);2017年02期

3 劉佳;陸菊;劉寧;;基于DEA-Malmquist模型的中國(guó)沿海地區(qū)旅游產(chǎn)業(yè)效率時(shí)空演化、影響因素與形成機(jī)理[J];資源科學(xué);2015年12期

4 王學(xué)軍;;基于三階段DEA模型的甘肅省區(qū)域文化產(chǎn)業(yè)效率研究[J];統(tǒng)計(jì)與信息論壇;2015年07期

5 彭宇芳;沙景華;劉寧;;基于投入產(chǎn)出模型的河南煤炭產(chǎn)業(yè)關(guān)聯(lián)效應(yīng)分析[J];資源與產(chǎn)業(yè);2015年03期

6 李佳儒;錢(qián)貴霞;;中國(guó)有色金屬產(chǎn)業(yè)關(guān)聯(lián)效應(yīng)分析[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)研究導(dǎo)刊;2015年09期

7 屈秋實(shí);劉春學(xué);孫云峰;;云南有色金屬產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈利益分配現(xiàn)狀分析[J];黃金;2015年03期

8 張美玲;趙旭強(qiáng);潘曄;;產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展研究[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題;2015年03期

9 王立杰;高志遠(yuǎn);;基于CGE模型的煤炭?jī)r(jià)格上漲對(duì)我國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響[J];生態(tài)經(jīng)濟(jì);2015年03期

10 戴志敏;丁峰;郭露;;長(zhǎng)三角城市群產(chǎn)業(yè)變動(dòng)與就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)協(xié)調(diào)程度分析:1994~2013年數(shù)據(jù)[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)體制改革;2015年01期

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前3條

1 王佳;多部門(mén)動(dòng)態(tài)隨機(jī)一般均衡模型的中國(guó)應(yīng)用[D];清華大學(xué);2011年

2 隋建利;動(dòng)態(tài)隨機(jī)一般均衡模型的研究與應(yīng)用[D];吉林大學(xué);2010年

3 原鵬飛;房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)影響的一般均衡分析[D];廈門(mén)大學(xué);2009年

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前4條

1 張銳;基于DEA模型的我國(guó)各省市文化產(chǎn)業(yè)效率分析[D];廈門(mén)大學(xué);2014年

2 郝晴;有色金屬行業(yè)對(duì)關(guān)聯(lián)行業(yè)的影響分析[D];中南大學(xué);2013年

3 李翠;生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)效率評(píng)價(jià)的DEA模型研究[D];電子科技大學(xué);2013年

4 馬竹君;國(guó)際原油價(jià)格波動(dòng)對(duì)我國(guó)產(chǎn)業(yè)部門(mén)影響的研究[D];南京航空航天大學(xué);2013年

，

本文編號(hào)：1926784